After Tuesday’s U.S. election upset, climate change watchers and wonks are scrambling to assess what it would really mean if Donald Trump, true to his word, ditches or simply fails to participate in the Paris climate change agreement (which he could do through a variety of mechanisms). And it does indeed appear that the consequences for international diplomacy, and for the planet, would be considerable.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pumps his fist after giving his acceptance speech as his wife Melania Trump, right, and their son Barron Trump follow him during his election night rally in New York. Photo credit: AP Photo/John Locher
At the centre of the U.S.’s role in that agreement is its ambitious pledge to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent below their 2005 levels by the year 2025. Presumably, under Trump, we’d no longer see such significant cuts. Indeed, given Trump’s campaign trail talk about firing up the domestic coal, oil, and gas industries, we might even see our emissions increase.
So what would it mean if the U.S. doesn’t hit its Paris target, for whatever reason, due to actions taken (or not taken) under Trump?
According to an analysis shared with the Post by the D.C.-based think tank Climate Interactive (based in part on this analysis here), the effect is actually quite substantial. That’s because a large percentage of the full emissions cuts produced by the Paris agreement come directly from the U.S.’s individual promise to take domestic action, said Andrew Jones, co-director of the group.
“Pulling out of the Paris agreement matters not just in leadership, but also in a direct impact on the climate,” Jones said.
More specifically, Jones explained, Climate Interactive’s analysis finds that the U.S. pledge amounts to the avoidance of 22 gigatons, or billion tons, of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between the years 2016 and 2030. But all of the pledges, by all of the countries, only amount to the avoidance of a little over 100 gigatons. Thus, the U.S.accounts for around 20 percent of the total, which is not surprising, given the size of the country and the fact that it is the world’s second largest emitter after China.
So what effect would that have on the Paris agreement as a whole? Noticing that one fifth of its emissions cuts have vanished, Jones said, “I think the rest of the world would be less likely to take action on their own part, and do their own share.”
Granted, it is far from certain that a President Trump will be as hostile to the Paris accord as he sounded on the campaign trail – he will have to forge relationships with all these countries that want him to participate in global climate action.
“Governing is different than campaigning,” said David Sandalow, a fellow at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “The Trump team is about to confront that. Following through on some of his campaign climate statements would come at a cost in terms of his administration’s foreign policy objectives.”
Sandalow added that the U.S. dropping out of the Paris process could be a boon to its other biggest participant in terms of its emissions – China.
“If the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, that would create a strategic opportunity for China,” Sandalow said. “It would gain credibility globally by sticking with its climate plans even as the U.S. withdraws, helping the Chinese government advance its objectives on a range of topics.”
Meanwhile, it’s not just that Donald Trump’s victory has upended the move towards global climate action – and will likely set the stage for reversal of Obama climate and energy policies at home as well.
The November 8 election also saw the defeat of an initiative in Washington State that would have imposed the nation’s first revenue-neutral carbon tax, assessing a $25-per-ton fee on carbon dioxide emitted in the electricity, transportation, and other sectors and then using that revenue to reduce the state sales tax.
Initiative 732, as it was called, actually saw considerable resistance from the environmental left, which felt that revenues from such a measure should be used to advance other social causes, rather than be returned to taxpayers. By the end, a strange bedfellow allegiance had arisen in which some on the left had effectively joined forces with some fossil fuel interests to oppose the carbon tax, even as many climate scientists and economists supported it.
The tough politics hurt the measure even in Washington State’s populous and very liberal King County, the home to Seattle, where the initiative barely won a majority. In contrast, King voted for Hillary Clinton by 73.9 percent. Statewide, 58.1 percent of Washington voters ultimately said “no” to the carbon tax initiative.
To be sure, in the context of the bombshell election and its broader negative implications for international climate action, the loss in Washington hardly felt significant.
“In the scheme of things it doesn’t really count for much, and I would say that even if it had won, because we’re in for many years of backsliding on climate at a time when we really had to ramp it up,” said Charles Komanoff, director of the Carbon Tax Centre.
New report from diverse coalition reveals what governments must do to achieve Paris Agreement goals
Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org, one of the numerous groups that endorsed the report. Photo credit: Nancie Battaglia
As government ministers meet in Marrakech to assess global ambition towards addressing climate change in the near-term, a diverse coalition of social movements, environmental and development NGOs, trade unions, and faith groups on Friday released a startling new report, titled: “Setting the Path towards 1.5°C: A Civil Society Equity Review of pre-2020 Ambition.” The report says the Paris Agreement’s aspirational temperature limit of 1.5°C can only be met if governments take immediate action in the next four years to speed up the pace of cutting emissions.
The report is a follow up to 2015’s “A Civil Society Equity Review”, which assessed countries’ Paris commitments – their pledged emissions reductions post-2020 – against their “fair share” of such reductions, based on each country’s responsibility for causing climate change, and capability to help solve the problem.
“Setting the Path towards 1.5°C” looks at the short term, reviewing countries’ pre-2020 emissions reductions and climate finance pledges. It finds that, in aggregate, developed countries, in spite of having a larger fair share of emissions reductions than developing countries, are offering much lower levels of ambition, while developing countries are much closer to meeting their fair share if they fulfil their most ambitious pledges.
Globally, the report finds that that only 30-44% of the mitigation needed in 2020 to achieve the 1.5°C limit has been pledged. Without much greater levels of emissions cuts in the pre-2020 years, action in the post-2020 years will have to be much more ambitious and costly than is feasible, adds the report.
In fact, the report asserts that, for a scenario in which the world limits overall warming to 1.5°C, many developed countries have fair shares that are larger than could be met domestically. These countries can only meet their fair shares by providing money for additional emissions cuts in developing countries. Only with massive international cooperation – that makes it possible for developing countries to go way beyond their fair shares – can the global climate crisis be solved.
Governments cannot leave Marrakesh without Setting the Path towards 1.5°C
Beyond highlighting the urgent need to increase ambition and cooperation, the report prescribes a comprehensive set of recommendations, many aimed at the ongoing talks in Marrakech, dubbed an “Action COP,” and in particular the High-Level “Facilitative Dialogue” that is supposed to take an honest look into how to beef up the inadequate pre-2020 efforts. Among the recommendations:
Developed countries must deliver their fair share of public climate finance to enable transformation across all sectors in the effort to limit warming to 1.5°C, and help communities adapt to even that degree of warming.
G20 governments must take action now to phase out fossil-fuel production subsidies, and terminate public support for fossil exploration.
Bilateral and multilateral support for energy development must prioritise access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy.
Governments must increase the national targets to reduce emissions that they submitted before Paris.
A renewable energy partnership should be established to spur a race to the top; organise an ambitious and properly financed system to resource global renewable energy initiatives; and organise similar partnerships across other sectors, such as public transport, housing and agriculture.
All sectors of society must be engaged in these efforts, including women, workers, youth, indigenous peoples, local communities, and migrants.
The following groups, organisations and movements are signatories to the 2016 Report “Setting the Path Towards 1.5°C: A Civil Society Equity Review of Pre-2020 Ambition.”
With the Paris Climate Agreement having just come into force, leaders from a wide range of sectors are coming together on Energy Day at the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakech (COP22) to demonstrate action on global efforts to decarbonise energy systems.
Rachel Kyte, CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL). The COP22 Energy Day is being jointly organised by IRENA, SE4ALL, MASEN and AMEE
Energy Day is being jointly organised by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL), in cooperation with the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) and the Moroccan Agency for Energy Efficiency (AMEE), as part of a series of thematic days – hosted by the Climate Champions – and held under the auspices of the COP22 Presidency.
The Paris Agreement set urgent climate action firmly in the context of sustainable development, with conversations on Friday focusing on how the world achieves the Sustainable Development Goal Number 7 (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), and secure universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy that can connect the current 1.1 billion people in the world who have little or no access to electricity, and the 2.9 billion people that still rely on smoky, dangerous solid fuels for cooking and heating.
Discussions and commitments made throughout the day include:
Announcements from the RE100 and EP100 initiatives
Pre-launch commitments to “One for All” – a global campaign to be launched in early 2017 that seeks to mobilise new forms of capital and new investors to end energy poverty before 2030.
Developments in the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Lighthouses Initiative, launched in Paris last year aimed at supporting islands in the transformation of their energy systems.
Developments related to the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI)
The remarkable renewable energy transformation of Morocco, this year’s COP hosts.
“Closing the energy gap offers us one of the greatest economic opportunities of our lifetime,” said Rachel Kyte, CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL). “In 2016, the world needs an energy system that allows universal access, supports new jobs and meets our aspirations of a just, fair future for all. To achieve this, promises made must be promises kept.”
“The climate objectives agreed in Paris require nothing less than the radical decarbonisation of the global economy,” said Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA Director-General. “Transitioning rapidly to a future fuelled by renewable energy, combined with improving energy efficiency, is the single most effective way to stave off catastrophic climate change while providing citizens with a better quality of life. But the pace and scale of change needs to dramatically increase if we are to fulfil the promise of the Paris Agreement. Governments need to create the necessary policy and finance frameworks to catalyse a groundswell of initiatives, as the private sector develops its own decarbonisation strategies. This is well within our reach.”
New announcements made on Energy Day include:
New commitments from Dalmia Cement and Helvetia were announced during the press conference, which saw them publicly commit to use 100% renewable power across their operations and join RE100; a global, collaborative initiative with more than 80 of the world’s most influential companies who are working to massively increase demand for – and delivery of – renewable energy.
Announcements also came from Philips Lighting and Swiss Re who have committed to double their energy productivity and join EP100, a global campaign that works with companies to maximize the economic benefits of every unit of energy they consume.
The RE100 and EP100 initiatives are designed to work together to provide the least-cost decarbonisation pathway for business, and today three companies – Dalmia Cement, Philips Lighting and Swiss Re – become the first companies to be part of both campaigns led by The Climate Group, in partnership with CDP and the Global Alliance for Energy Productivity.
Together, RE100 companies are collectively creating over 100TWh of demand for renewable electricity – more than enough to power Morocco three times over. Members speaking today include Alejandro Agag, CEO, Formula E, Kevin Rabinovitch, Global Sustainability Director for Mars, and Bill Weihl, Director of Sustainability, at Facebook. Mr. Rabinovitch announced a new wind power purchasing agreement to power Mars’ Mexican operations.
A new private-sector led initiative, the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance (REBA), was also announced – REBA builds connections between corporate electricity demand and renewable energy supply.
Since COP21, the SIDS Lighthouses Initiative grew rapidly to include 39 States and 19 development partners and developed an innovative island renewable energy support programme. 19 renewable energy projects in the Caribbean were registered on the Sustainable Energy Marketplace, representing an investment volume of $1 billion. Two island States, Antigua and Barbuda and Cabo Verde, were selected to receive funding from the IRENA/ ADFD Project Facility and other co-financiers for a total of $45 million. In addition the UAE have recently announced $50 million for renewable energy projects in the Caribbean States.
Alejandro Agag, CEO, Formula E, stated: “Electric vehicles reach their full potential when coupled with renewable energy charging – which is why all the fully-electric Formula E cars are powered by a revolutionary zero-emission glycerine. The future is electric!”
The European Investment Bank (EIB), believed to be the world’s largest global lender for climate related investment, on Friday in Marrakech, Morocco confirmed its commitment to support climate action and increase the impact of climate related investment in Europe and Africa.
Jonathan Taylor, European Investment Bank (EIB) Vice President responsible for climate action
“The European Investment Bank welcomes the ratification of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement less than a year after COP 21, a key step to ensuring that the first-ever legally binding global agreement on climate can enter into force. The EIB recognises the importance of long-term finance to tackle a changing climate and the increasing role of climate finance to drive economic growth. The Paris Agreement has strengthened efforts to unlock more sustainable finance and catalyse greater investment where market innovation, national leadership and international finance all play a crucial role.” said Jonathan Taylor, European Investment Bank Vice President responsible for climate action.
Vice President Taylor confirmed that since COP 21 was convened in Paris the EIB has strengthened the impact of climate related investment worldwide. This includes backing for long-term investment in new sustainable transport, renewable energy and energy efficiency schemes, as well as supporting investment to adapt crucial infrastructure to a changing climate both across Europe and around the world, in Africa, Asia, Latin America and in Europe’s eastern neighbours.
He outlined how the EIB impact of support for climate investment in Europe has been strengthened under the Investment Plan for Europe and how future new lending in countries most impacted by the refugee crisis would also have a strong focus on supporting climate related investment.
Climate action is a key priority for the European Union’s long-term lending institution, the European Investment Bank. In the last five years the EIB has provided more than EUR 90 billion for climate related investment around the world. In 2015 EIB climate finance reached a record high of EUR 20.7 billion and represented 27% of overall financing.
“Transformational projects such as the Noor solar power plant at Ouarzazate and Lake Turkana wind farm in northern Kenya demonstrate how private investment across Africa can be unlocked to strengthen sustainable energy generation. Enabling future climate related investment of this scale and increasing the climate impact of all projects is crucial for successful implementation of the Paris agreement,” added Jonathan Taylor.
Climate related investment approved by the EIB since Paris ranges from zero-energy buildings in Finland, a billion euros for sustainable transport in Paris, construction of mobile breakwaters to protect islands in the Venice lagoon, and one of the world’s largest offshore windfarms, the 84 turbine Beatrice project that will provide sustainable power to an estimated 450,000 homes.
Since the landmark agreement the EIB has also confirmed key climate related investment outside Europe, including expansion of the Cairo Metro and the first metro in the Indian city of Lucknow as well as improving supply of sustainable energy in the small island state of the Maldives.
The EIB is the long-term lending institution of the European Union owned by its Member States. It makes long-term finance available for sound investment in order to contribute towards EU policy goals.
Deliberations at the ongoing COP22 climate conference in Marrakech took a different turn on Thursday as delegates shifted focus to the nexus between water and climate change in celebration of the first Water Day at the COP.
Water and Sanitation Director of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Mohammed El Azizi
Organised for the first time in the history of UN Climate Change Conferences, the Action Day for Water at the ongoing UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakech (COP22) created through the Global Climate Action Agenda calls for more attention to water as a way of providing solutions to help implement the Paris Agreement.
The action day, which is dedicated to discussing the relationship between water issues and climate change-positioning and to raise its profile in the relevant negotiations, attracted a large number of participants from government delegations, international organisations, civil society and the media.
At the first session which centred on the “Water for Africa” initiative, panellists that included Water and Sanitation Ministers from Morocco, Burkina Faso and Niger as well as the Water and Sanitation Director of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Mohammed El Azizi, identified water as a critical element for successful climate change mitigation, as many efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depend on reliable access to water resources.
Highlighting Africa’s water-related challenges within the climate context, Niouga Ambroise Ouedraogo, Burkina Faso’s Water and Sanitation Minister, regretted that, as much as most impacts of climate change in Africa are linked to droughts, floods and sea level rise, many African states still have problems accessing multilateral funds with no capacity to prepare proposals for bankable projects.
Reiterating AfDB’s commitment to boosting the capacity of African states to access predictable and fast-tracked financing mechanism to cope with climate-induced water stress, El Azizi highlighted the bank’s constant focus on integrated water resources management, improved transboundary integration and planning, and proactive innovative approaches and projects that are assisting African states to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Some of such projects which cut across all African sub-regions, according to El Azizi, are the Thwake multi-purpose water resources development project in Kenya, which mainstreams climate resilience by improving water security through the construction of dam, irrigation schemes and water supply, the Yaoundé urban drainage project in central Africa, and the Niger Basin HYCOS Project, which promotes effective management of water resources through quality hydrological data and information in west African states.
Others, according to the AfDB water chief who also doubles as the Director of the African Water Facility (AWF), are the detailed plan of the Songwe River Basin Development Programme in Southern Africa, which envisions a conducive environment for transboundary water resources through flood control planning and climate proofing in the Songwe River basin between Malawi and Tanzania,and the Rabat-Cassablanca and Marrakech region projects which involve water transfer from surplus basins to deficit basins in the north African country of Morocco.
At the Global Climate Action Dialogue on Water which rounded off the Water Day celebration, Parties and the non-Parties explored sustainable initiatives on water and socio-economic development, financing mechanism to increase ambitions related to adaptation and mitigation of water field, and Improving knowledge, cooperation and capacity building.
Experts from the World Water Council, World Bank, European Investment Bank, AfDB and the Stockholm International Water Institute prescribed inclusion of water sector projects in every climate action plan. They also laid emphasis on extensive development of banks expertise in water, application of climate safeguards system as well as mainstreaming climate resilience into water projects.
Leaders from global faith groups, financial institutions and foundations on Thursday called on sovereign wealth and pension funds to rapidly end trillions in investments related to fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy in line with the Paris Agreement.
His Holiness the Dalai Lama is among signatories to the COP22 Interfaith Climate Statement
The faith leaders met at “Building the Divest Invest Movement with Faiths, Foundations and Finance,” an official side event of the COP22 UN Convention on Climate Change, which began November 7 in Marrakech.
At the event, the COP22 Interfaith Climate Statement was released, with eminent leaders from across faith traditions joining together in a powerful call to action. Signatories include His Holiness the Dalai Lama; Msgr. Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences; Rev Dr. Olav Fykse Tveit, General Secretary, World Council of Churches; Sayyid M. Syeed, Islamic Society of North America; Archbishop Desmond Tutu; and over 220 other faith leaders from around the globe. Other signatories include senior Buddhist, Hindu, Jain, Sikh, Muslim, Eastern Orthodox, Roman Catholic, Anglican, Episcopal, Baptist, Pentecostal, Lutheran, Quaker, Unitarian Universalist, Indigenous and other spiritual leaders.
The Statement included a set of imperatives designed to speed a transition to a low carbon future in a timeframe consistent with the goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The calls included shifting public finances away from fossil fuels, increasing financing to end energy poverty with renewable energy, and ensuring a just transition that protects human rights and vulnerable communities.
Faith leaders urged their communities for more commitments to divest from fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy, with the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) releasing a major announcement that it would commit to divest its investments from fossil fuels and encourage its two constituent organisations and five national affiliated institutions to do so as well. This marked the world’s first divestment announcement from a Muslim institution.
“According to Islam’s most basic and fundamental teachings, human beings have been uniquely charged with the great responsibility of being Guardians of the Earth. It goes against the mission of the ISNA to invest in fossil fuel companies whose operations and products cause such grave harm to humanity and to Creation,” said Dr. Azhar Azeez, President of the Islamic Society of North America.
The event also included presentations by philanthropic foundation leaders. Mark Sainsbury, Chair of the Mark Leonard Trust, made the financial case for divest invest: “The Paris Agreement, new regulations and technological innovation will see fossil fuel companies lose value and market share to sustainable energy technologies. In fact, it’s happening already. We’re in a sustainable energy revolution and I believe it’s wiser to invest in the low carbon technology of today and tomorrow, not the high carbon technology of yesterday,” he said.
Ellen Dorsey, Executive Director of the Wallace Global Fund, stated, “Governments have significant influence on global finance with their investment assets. Nations can play a critical and stabilising role in expediting the transition from a fossil-fuel based economy to a net-zero carbon economy, mitigating the financial and humanitarian risks of dangerous climate change. Nations’ sovereign wealth funds must be invested consistent with the commitments made in Paris.”
Rev Fletcher Harper, Executive Director of GreenFaith, said, “Religious and spiritual communities recognise that the earth is a gift, and that it is our responsibility to protect it. In the face of the climate crisis, we are all required to act and to immediately shift away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy. Faith communities are also united in their concern to care for the most vulnerable and are committed to bring distributed, clean power to the 1.1 billion people globally who lack access to electricity by 2030.”
The side event was hosted by GreenFaith and Divest Invest. Greenfaith is an interfaith environmental organisation that inspires, equips, and mobilises diverse faith communities for environmental action. Divest Invest encourages individuals and philanthropic institutions to accelerate the transition to a clean energy future.
The 2016 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP22) at Marrakech, in the Kingdom of Morocco, could not have come at a more inauspicious time. Delegates had one eye on the agenda, and the other on the television screens, anxious to know who was winning the presidential elections in the United States of America.
US president-elect, Donald Trump, delivering his victory speech
It was sheer coincidence that these two crucial events for global politics and global warming happen at the same time every four years. Like a solar eclipse, the victory of Donald Trump over the emotional and more climate-friendly Hillary Clinton casts a shadow on COP22, and the future of climate change mitigation in the universe. As a result, Marrakech has been in emotional darkness for a few days now.
Delegates in the great halls of this Moroccan city have put up a brave face, and continued talking, lecturing, negotiating and cajoling, complimenting and applauding themselves, pretending to ignore the political fermentation in North America. But, deep in their hearts, they know that global climate change impacts may henceforth be remotely worsened by the arrival of Mr. Trump at the White House.
In 2015, the precursor to Marrakech was held in Paris, France. It was the 21st yearly session of the Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th Session of the Meeting of the Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The conference negotiated Paris Agreement, a global accord on the reduction of climate change, the text of which represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending it. The agreement will enter into force when joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions. On 22 April 2016 (Earth Day), 174 countries signed the agreement in New York, and began adopting it within their own legal systems (through ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession). The US and China have promised to formally approve the deal by the end of 2016.
Not many in the climate movement or fraternity had paid much attention to Donald Trump even when he called climate change a hoax, partly because few had expected him to win the US presidential elections. Before that, a few eyebrows were raised when he said he would tear the Paris Agreement to pieces. But again, the pundits were dismissive as he had made quite a number of offhand, controversial, cocky and unbelievable statements. Now the COP 22 delegates in Morocco are waking up earlier than usual from nights of terrifying insomnia to reality, because Mr Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States of America, and his campaign utterances are no longer regarded as cheap gimmicks.
What happens in international development negotiations, like at the COP, is clearly that all countries are equal according to the UN Charter, but some are more equal than others, to borrow that Orwellian metaphor. The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are often the first to accede to multilateral environmental and climate agreements, under the pressure and promise of funds and capacity building including technology transfer and knowledge sharing, from the wealthier industrial nations who admit to being the heavier emitters of greenhouse gases. As it turns out, some of these promises remain empty and never materialise.
The last to sign are usually the biggest emission culprits, with fists firmly on the levers of the world’s financial and development institutions. When the United States stonewalls and stalls at any global conference panic sets in.
Criticism of Donald Trump from a number of intellectuals including Noam Chomsky, Leo Benedictus and Wole Soyinka admit to his unpredictability. Whether that could also be seen as something positive in the battle against climate change will remain to be seen. As a successful businessman, his supporters believe Mr Trump is a master at doing deals. The only problem is whether he has the cognitive ability, patience and temperament to subordinate his ego and recognise the pathways of deals based on scientific research and results.
Washington watchers believe Trump is likely to invite Myron Ebell, a notorious climate change sceptic to spearhead his plans for the Environmental Protection Agency. Myron Ebell is currently director of the Centre for Energy and Environment at the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute. He is touted as a divisive figure in the industry and highlights that Trump is looking to shake up climate policies that were pursued under Barack Obama, so says a report in the Scientific American.
Climate change agreements may be legally binding, but no country takes another to court over transgressions and gets them punished. Africa will continue to rely on the familiar rhetoric insisting on the moral, economic and social imperative of the United States of America to lead and act on climate change and carry forward the commitments made under the Paris Agreement. Will this argument make any sense to a US President Trump that once said, “Climate change is not taking place! Forget it!”?
By Ako Amadi (Executive Director, Community Conservation and Development Initiatives)
Now that the ground-breaking Paris Agreement on climate change has entered into force, how do countries make good on their national commitments to tackle this global threat? Implementing these national plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs – will require countries to develop innovative policies, legislative and institutional frameworks, assess what resources they need and what financial sources they can use to bring their plans to life. They also must overcome economic and market barriers that slow the transfer and uptake of new, cleaner technologies.
The NDC Partnership will be launched at the ongoing UN climate change talks in Marrakech, Morocco
Such a monumental task requires more than a business-as-usual approach. To make a just transition towards a zero-emissions, climate-resilient society, governments, international institutions and other stakeholders need to identify new ways to share information, mobilise financial and technical resources and coordinate actions – globally and at the country level.
NDC Partnership Offers Tools and Support for Climate Action
That is why a broad range of governments, international institutions and non-state actors are coming together to launch the NDC Partnership, which aims to provide countries with the tools, best practices and support they need to achieve ambitious climate and sustainable development targets as quickly as possible. The Partnership is focused on helping countries implement their climate commitments in ways that will transform economic systems and development priorities: how energy is produced, distributed and used; how cities are designed, how land is farmed, how forests are protected, how businesses operate and much more.
The NDC Partnership takes a three-pronged approach to drive greater action by:
Creating and sharing knowledge products, making sure countries have enhanced access to support, tools and resources. An early example of this is the NDC Funding and Initiatives Navigator, an easy-to-use online database of support programs and funding opportunities available to countries to assist them in implementing their national climate plans.
Facilitating greater alignment of technical assistance and capacity-building efforts at national, regional and global levels, working to foster collaboration between environment and development agencies and ensuring that development efforts and climate action are mutually reinforcing.
Working with developing countries, relevant institutions and the private sector to boost climate-smart investments and make development finance more coordinated and responsive to each country’s requests.
The Partnership builds on existing initiatives and unites them with guiding principles that point countries’ efforts in the same direction. Members of the Partnership are committed to enhance efficiency, build in-country capacity and improve coordination of NDC-related activities in countries and around the world. They also have pledged to promote long-term action that aligns with the goals of the Paris Agreement. That means integrating NDC implementation into national planning and decision-making, advancing both climate adaptation and mitigation, while merging strategies for sustainable development and climate action. The Partnership recognises that countries are in charge when it comes to identifying their needs and providing tailored support.
How countries implement their climate commitments and how donors provide support to developing countries will need to change in profound ways. The Partnership aims to make sure support for developing countries is responsive, inclusive and effective – and ultimately drives greater ambition. If the NDC Partnership can provide technical, financial or other support that increases countries’ ambition and continues the movement towards low-carbon development, it will be a success.
The NDC Partnership will be launched on Tuesday, November 15 at the ongoing UN climate change talks in Marrakech, Morocco.
Cities, towns and regions are making big impacts in implementing their climate commitments by acting locally and partnering globally, a trend which is underlined at the Global Climate Action Day (on Thursday, November 10) on Cities and Human Settlements at the UN Climate Change Conference holding in Marrakech.
Gino Van Begin, Secretary General of ICLEI, a global network of cities, towns and regions. Photo credit: Barbara FRommann
Civic leaders at the event, co-organised by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), also outlined the main actions that national governments can now take in partnership with them to help achieve their local goals as a significant input to the success of national climate action plans – the nationally-determined contributions (NDCs).
The ICLEI is the global network of over 1,500 cities, towns and regions committed to building a sustainable future.
“The Paris Agreement entering into force is very good news. It means that we can finally get down to the business of rapidly implementing the commitments it contains” said Gino Van Begin, ICLEI Secretary General.
“Nations gathered at COP22 now need to show leadership by providing a strong framework to support action and a powerful roadmap to scale up climate action and bridge the emissions gap before it is too late. Climate action in and by cities, towns and regions will be instrumental in ensuring that we stay on a 2°C pathway, aiming for 1.5°C,” he said.
COP 22 is dubbed the “implementation COP” and Cities and Human Settlements Day showcased the potential of local action for implementation, focused on resilience and building efficiency.
For example, the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, building on work done by the Compact of Mayors and EU Covenant of Mayors, is promising to be a powerful platform for local governments worldwide to monitor and report their own climate commitments.
Highlights of Cities and Human Settlements Day
A wide coalition of partners – local government networks, academia and international organisations – will organise an International Scientific Conference on Climate Change and Cities in 2018. A call for a host city for the eventwill be announced at the Thematic Day.
A new assessment tool, which will be presented during the Resilience showcase of the morning, will allowstandardised qualitative reporting of adaptation commitments to the Global Covenant of Mayors.
The Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA) will deliver the main results of the Scoping report of the Alliance member’s initiatives on subnational and local finance. The report confirms that early stage project development (readiness and upstream phases) are crucial to build on appropriate climate strategies and projects, and highlight financial engineering approaches supporting the development of urban climate strategies into concrete urban investment projects, including climate co-benefits and risk management perspectives.
Why are Urban Areas Important to Implement the Paris Agreement?
Urban areas represent an estimated 70% of energy-related global emissions. The buildings and construction sector alone accounts for over 20% of global GHG emissions. Achieving the sector’s potential 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 (as forecast by the International Energy Agency) will be critical to the success of the Paris Agreement.
But climate change is already happening putting a priority also on adaptation to extreme climate by sub-national governments. The World Bank says that, adapting to the changing climate could cost between $80-100 billion every year, 80% of which will need to be invested in urban areas.
A Special Dialogue on Financing Urban Resilience, organised by FMDV and the Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA), addressed the issue of how to secure funds for resilience projects with a longer-term investment horizon.
Many actions to adapt urban areas to climate change also have positive mitigation impacts, and vice-versa, providing a double win for city climate action. Examples include renovation of old and construction of new low-energy and energy-efficient buildings. The Global Alliance for Buildings and Constructions launched a roadmap for buildings, with a focus on low energy buildings in hot and tropical areas, and improving access to finance, particularly for developing countries.
Government at all levels need to take into account the buildings and construction sector as it has the largest potential for a cost-effective mitigation of greenhouse gases. This requires an integrated vision, looking not only at the direct and indirect emissions in buildings, but also the materials that go into them, in order to ensure that the Paris Agreement will have a long-lasting impact on our cities, and on the world.
Urban areas are also at the centre of converging global frameworks, not only the Paris Agreement, but also the Sustainable Development Goals and the New Urban Agenda. Cross-sector and multi-level action at the local level hold the secret to a multiplier effect that can change the face of urban environments, while providing a key contribution to the fulfillment of ambitious climate goals.
What the Sector Expects from Partnering with National Governments
The aggregate ambition captured in current NDCs does not get the world on track to the goal of keeping global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius.
National governments need to support sub-national governments in close partnership, providing enabling frameworks for local climate action and funding consistent with the challenges they face. Local government is often most able to establish effective vertical integration through all levels of government to scale up climate action in both the developed and the developing world.
Achieving the pledge by developed nations to achieve $100 billion per year of finance by 2020 to support action in the poorest and most vulnerable countries is also a critical factor in driving this agenda forwards – some of the fastest urbanization is now in the developing world and such countries require timely and adequate support to avoid high-carbon infrastructure and to put in place resilient and low-carbon solutions as soon as possible.
France and Morocco’s global climate champions have set out their detailed agenda to boost cooperative action between governments, cities, business, investors and citizens to cut emissions rapidly and help vulnerable nations adapt to climate impacts and build their own clean energy, sustainable futures.
Climate Champions, Laurence Tubiana (France) and Hakima El Haité (Morocco) said: “A year after COP 21, the great dynamic of climate action is now growing strong. As we all gather to Marrakech time has come to start to take stock of what has been achieved during the last year. To be consistent with the long-term goals, all actors will have to work together, not only to achieve the national targets of the NDCs, but also to go further and bridge the gap of emissions. This sense of urgency should guide us all into accelerating immediate efforts and delivering ambitious action.
“We must identify what concrete policy options and what tools we will have to mobilise in the short term. The science is clear: the path towards achieving the long-term goals should bring us to peaking GHG emissions by 2020. This is a challenge, and we are not there yet. On the current trends, we will be in 2030 between 11 to 14 GT above Paris-compatible pathways.
“The purpose of these days is to strengthen all efforts and take them to the next level to stay on track for the objectives: stay well below 2°C and if possible 1,5°C, increase adaptation and resilience capacities and reorient financial flows. It is our responsibility, as champions, to make the link between the real world and the COP process. Political leaders from all around the world should hear and be inspired by the solutions at our reach.”
Experts at the UNFCCC’s 22nd Conference of Parties which began on Monday in Marrakech have proposed innovative approaches to solving the African energy challenge.
Gareth Phillips, African Development Bank’s Chief Climate and Green Growth Officer
Speaking at a side event on Renewable Energy Performance Platform as a tool to deliver NDC Objectives on the first day of the conference, the experts believe that Africa’s energy poverty which leaves about 600 million people without access to electricity and McKinsey’s projection on $490 billion investment needed by 2040 for new generation capacity in Africa constitute an invitation to explore innovative ways of overcoming the challenge.
One of such innovative solutions, according to Gareth Phillips, African Development Bank’s Chief Climate and Green Growth Officer, is results-based financing mechanism which allows donors to channel climate finance into different types of energy projects.
“Results-based financing is attractive because it takes away a lot of the risks from the donor and it simply says you give me the results and I will give you the money and it frees up the private and entrepreneurial sectors to come up with solutions to these problems,” Phillips added.
Results-based climate finance as a crediting mechanism is increasingly becoming an avenue to scale carbon mitigation by routing financial flows towards fiscal reforms for renewable energy, incentivise sectoral investments and leverage private capital.
Subha Nagarajan, Managing Director of Africa Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and Andreas Gunst of DLA Piper, were of the view that the Renewable Energy Performance Platform (REPP) which aims to mobilise private investment in renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa, addresses early-stage barriers to renewable energy project development, and focuses on small- to medium-sized renewable energy projects can rewrite Africa’s energy story for good.
The platform’s innovative approach to providing technical and financial advisory while facilitating access to risk mitigation instruments and finance provided by REPP partners addresses challenges of funding gap, absence of development capital, lack of expertise in financial structuring and access to cheaper funding on the continent of Africa.
Developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) in collaboration with the AfDB, USAID, OPIC and a host of banks with an initial funding of £48 million from the UK’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the Platform supports technologies in solar, run-of-river hydropower, onshore wind, biomass, geothermal and waste-to-energy with project types such as grid-connected and off-grid, public utilities and private offtakers, greenfield, brownfield and renewable storage hybrids.
