The Secretariat of UNFCCC communicated the negotiation text of the Climate Change Agreement in Paris in December 2015 to Governments on 19th March 2015 in all six official languages.

This communication, according to the UNFCCC, means that the formal, legal and procedural requirements to allow countries to adopt a legal instrument under the UNFCCC have been fulfilled. Governments are set to agree a global climate change agreement which will come into effect in 2020.

As part of the agreement, every country is expected to contribute now and into the future based on their national circumstances to prevent global warming rising above 2 degrees Celsius and to adapt societies to existing and future climate change. This is the primary purpose of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) which every country is expected to send to the UNFCCC.

The UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres made this clear when she said that the INDCs Report allowed early considerations of the emerging consensus and the options now on the table by all concerned government ministries so countries can conclude successfully in Paris. She went on to say that Paris needs to put the world on a recognisable track to peak global emissions as soon as possible, achieve a deep decarbonisation of the global economy and reach a climate neutral world in the second half of this century at the latest.

The negotiation text covers substantive content of the new agreement including mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, capacity building and transparency of action and support. Another step towards the goal of COP 21 has been achieved with the negotiating text to all governments. The road will see intense effort towards the Agreement and formal negotiations will continue on the text at the next UN Climate Change sessional meeting in Bonn from 1^st to 11th June, 2015.

It is expected that the Bonn meeting will be a useful platform for countries to demonstrate flexibility and willingness to come to an early resolution of the outstanding issues and to seek common ground on unresolved issues. It is expected that further sessions will provide opportunities to converge on and resolve issues in advance of the Paris Conference in Bonn from 31st August-4th September and from 19th to 23rd October 2015. There will also be series of top-level meetings that will include climate change on their Agenda and contribute to convergence on the key political choices. Major Economic Forum with up to four sessions tentatively scheduled for this year, The Petersburg Climate Dialogue (17th-19th, May 2015), the G7 and G2 0meetings.

These sessions, according to Ms Figueres, will provide opportunities that will help to ensure that countries can inject the right level of political energy and direction. She further said that “what is needed now is that the views of the Heads of State, Ministers and negotiating teams reflect a consistent view of ambition and the means to achieve it”.

The negotiating sessions will be interesting and challenging especially with the launching of the complete version of the Synthesis Report that concludes the instalment of the 5^th Assessment Report (AR5) of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCCC).

The Report, written by over 800 scientists from 80 countries and assessing over 30,000 scientific communities knows about the scientific basis of climate change, its risks and options for adaption and mitigation. It will serve as useful information for negotiators to advance strong basis for their positions and the interest of their regions and countries.

The train to COP21 is moving fast and, as the clock ticks, we must all ensure that we move with the tide. It is good news that the in-coming administration through the President-elect has given a signal that climate change, international diplomacy is a priority area for the government. We welcome this and as we have said in our series Nigeria has the responsibility to lead Africa and all of us must key into this olive message because we must move towards the path of low carbon economy and tap on this to get “buy-in” by all Nigerians. Climate Change is real and we must also be advocates.

I continue to wish the Committee on COP 21 every success, as we all look forward to the end product. We assure them of our support and pray that God will grant them wisdom and grace to succeed.

By Prince Lekan Fadina (Executive Director, Centre for Investment, Sustainable Development, Management and Environment (CISME). (He is a member of the Nigeria Negotiation Team, Africa Group of Negotiators and member, AGN Finance Co-ordination Committee). Website: www.cismenigeria.com. Email: cismevision@gmail.com

The New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has described the United State’s climate action plan – the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) – as grossly inadequate. It also sees US, which has a history of being the world’s largest polluter of the environment, as doing less to address climate change.

A release issued by CSE on April 1, 2015, observed that the INDCs was a replication of “its earlier pledge made in November 2014, which is “neither fair nor ambitious, and way short of what is needed to keep global warming under 2 degree centigrade.”

According to experts at CSE, “In its mitigation-centric INDC, the US commits to cutting greenhouse gases by 26-28 per cent by 2025 against the 2005 level. What this essentially means is that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the US in 2025 will be 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Its per capita emissions would be 14 tonne CO2e in 2025. In comparison, in 2025, India’s total emissions will be about 4 billion tonne and its per capita emissions will be less than 3 tonne.”

CSE further observes that although the US mentions Clean Air Act, Energy Policy Act, and Energy Independence and Security Act, “it has no data on sector-wise emissions and the INDC is thin on details on how the target is going to be achieved.

“The US INDC is even less ambitious than what was pledged in Copenhagen when the US had said they would be on the pathway to a 30 per cent reduction in 2025 and a 42 per cent reduction in 2030. This pledge falls short of even that weak target. And this is when the world is witnessing extreme weather events and unprecedented calamities attributable to climate change.” Sunita Narain, director general of CSE said of US.

The statement compared the 26-28 percent reduction over 2005 as amounting to 15-17 percent over the 1990 levels. “In comparison, the European Union will reduce its emissions by at least 40 percent (by 2030) – more than double that of the US.”

CSE however estimated that to meet the 2°C target, “US emissions should be at least 50-60 per cent below 1990 levels, considering its historical responsibility of causing climate change and its present capability of solving it.”

The Centre observed that the actual reduction of emissions by the US would be much lesser than the 26-28 percent reduction because “the US target involved all greenhouse gases as well as offsets from CO2 absorption from sinks such as forests and land use changes.”

It also lamented the non-reference in the INDC as to how the US planned to fund its pledge of USD$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, which is aimed at supporting the climate change plans of developing countries. “The Fund has received less than one percent of the promises made till date.

“Ironically, even these shallow commitments on the part of the US lack support domestically and the Republicans are strongly opposed to policies and Acts for climate change; particularly the rules on curbing pollution from power plants and federal policy on renewable energy,” CSE stated.

It decreed the Republicans and industry groups’ attempt to undercut proposed US Environmental Protection Agency power plant regulations as well as pursuing court challenges and by urging states not to comply.

“The shoddy efforts to cut corners on the part of countries historically responsible for and with the maximum capacity and resources to deal with climate change, only mean that it is certain that the world will go over the 2 degree C target. Thanks to countries like the US, the world would be forced to gear up for more catastrophic and irreversible climate change impacts,” Chandra Bhushan, deputy director-general of CSE concluded.
By Abdallah el-Kurebe (Regional Editor, Newswatch Mag., +2348065887777; Skype: damyiloh)

Key Facts

• “The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.” – The board of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
• Climate change affects the social and environmental determinants of health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter
• Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress
• Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through better transport, food and energy-use choices can result in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution – World Health Organisation (WHO)

Almost all African countries are vulnerable to climate change. This is owing to their low adaptive capacity, including ever-growing dependence to on such resources that are sensitive to changes in climate.

Resulting from this, climate change threatens to inflict suffering on African nations as well as reverse the development gains that have been recorded over the years.

For example, Nigeria’s economic growth is principally based on oil, which is a climate-sensitive sector. Mining and agriculture are some others.

The WHO’s projection of an “approximate 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress” as a result of climate change means a retardation of development efforts in Africa.

Nigeria’s population figure as at 2013 173,615,000. The bulk of this number belongs to the poor class many of who are rural farmers.

According to Africa Adaptation Knowledge Network (AAKNet), 96 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In some countries, crop yields are predicted to fall by 50 percent by 2050.

Arable land is predicted to decline by six percent, which means that “food security and access to food will be severely compromised by climate change and poor rural communities and poor countries with the least financial, institutional and technological capacity to adapt will face the worst impacts.”

The introduction of agroforestry in agricultural systems will help, in no small measure, in mitigating climate change impact for rural farmers.

Deforestation, land degradation are contributing to trees disappearance from agricultural landscape and AAKNet says that “around 17 percent of all CO2 emissions are caused by deforestation and land degradation.

“An increase of arid and semi-arid land of five to eight percent is projected for Africa by 2080,” is stated.

Although the actual percentage of Nigeria’s land degraded by desertification is not ascertained, it is estimated that 43 percent of the total land area is suffers from the environmental menace.

For example, Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states are characterised by sandy soils and low annual rainfall.

It is therefore imperative for “a multi-tier approach to be employed in order to build capacities of governments and communities in Africa to effectively respond to and adapt to climate change.”

The Network recommends that: “the assessment of social and economic vulnerabilities needs to be strengthened so as to inform processes for identifying adaptation priorities.

“There is a need for national adaptation policies that provide clear guidelines for integration and implementation of strategies, programmes and activities.

“Mainstreaming climate change into economic frameworks and sectoral policies is of paramount importance in order to ensure integrated adaptation responses,” and

“There is a need for increased adaptation funding at local and national levels with priority to such vulnerable groups as smallholder farmers, etc.  
By Abdallah el-Kurebe (Regional Editor, Newswatch Mag., +2348065887777; Skype: damyiloh)

Ahead of the much-anticipated 21^st Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December in Paris where history will be made as countries are expected to agree to a new climate plan, EnviroNews Nigeria has intensified its awareness raising endeavor.

In addition to a countdown series currently running on the online environment and development-focused news magazine courtesy of Prince Lekan Fadina, another climate change expert has joined the fray. He is Professor Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo.

With a doctorate degree in Climatology and over 30 years of work experience, nearly half of which was with the UN System, as well as over two and half decades of interest in issues related to environmental management, energy and climate change, Prof. Oladipo has taught and consulted on climate change, energy and development.

He had an extensive consultancy relationship with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Climate Change and Drought and Desertification between 1983 and 1995. He participated in a number of activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1985 and 1992, including being a contributor to two chapters of the First Scientific Assessment Report of the IPCC in 1990.

He worked with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Nigeria between 1994 and 2006, leading the Energy and Environment Team to facilitate and lead processes for the development and implementation of environment-related national development programmes and projects.

Between 2006 and 2011, he was the Regional Coordinator of a GEF-assisted Integrated Ecosystem Management Project between Nigeria and Niger. He has been leading the Nigerian delegation on adaptation to the COPs since 2009. Prof. Oladipo consults regularly for the Federal Ministry of Environment, UNDP Nigeria, African Development Bank and the National Infrastructure Assistance Facility (NIAF) on policy and others sectoral issues of climate change and energy.

A member of the National Technical Committe for Paris 2015, he is currently with the Department of Geography, University of Lagos, as an Adjunct Professor to lead research on Energy and Climate Change.

His series will commence publication on Monday, April 6, 2015.