26 C
Lagos
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Home Blog Page 1979

Scientists find planet similar, close to Earth

0

In an article published by Nature World News on Wednesday, researchers announced the discovery of a new “Earth-like” planet orbiting a star not far from our sun. The planet has not been named yet, but was found circling the star Proxima Centauri – a “cool, tiny red dwarf” scientists have long suspected might be capable of having a planet in its orbit. The unnamed planet, known as Proxima b, is reported to orbit within Proxima Centauri’s “habitable zone” and is a only a short distance of 4.25 light-years away from Earth. Scientists estimate the planet receives enough radiation to retain a surface temperature of around -40° Fahrenheit. Based on what is known about other red dwarf star planets, Proxima b is likely rocky and has one side constantly left in darkness. Scientists are unsure whether it is in fact capable of supporting alien life, but it is believed it could have a surface “capable of holding liquid water” and sustaining life forms.

Artist's impression of the surface of Proxima b. Photo credit: M. Kornmesser/European Southern Observatory
Artist’s impression of the surface of Proxima b. Photo credit: M. Kornmesser/European Southern Observatory

Scientists have discovered what they believe to be a new planet, the closest one ever detected outside our solar system. It is a small, rocky planet not unlike our own, orbiting the sun’s closest stellar neighbor.

Astronomers have long suspected that the star Proxima Centauri could be home to a planet, but proof had been elusive. Dim red dwarf stars like Proximahave been found to host billions of small, closely orbiting planets throughout the galaxy. Now a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature provides the best evidence yet for a tantalisingly close target on which to seek alien life.

“It’s so inspiring, it’s our closest star,” Lisa Kaltenegger, a Cornell astronomer who wasn’t involved in the new study, told The Washington Post. “A planet next door. How much more inspiring can it get?”

Located about 4.25 light-years from the sun, Proxima is less famous than the Alpha Centauri binary star system it hangs around with. But while Alpha Centauri is made up of two rather sun-like stars, Proxima is actually closer. It used to be that scientists were far more interested in stars like our own sun than in dim little dwarves like Proxima, but the times are changing – these types of stars are far more common in the galaxy, and scientists now believe they might be just as capable of hosting life as more familiar looking suns.

The proposed planet comes to light not long after a would-be-world orbiting Alpha Centauri B was determined to be nothing but a fluke in the data. Scientists know that most stars in the galaxy harbor planets, but we’ve had difficulty finding our closest companions in the cosmos.

Proxima b will no doubt be dubbed “Earthlike” by many, but let’s not jump the gun. Here’s what we know: The planet, based on statistical analysis of the behavior of its star, is quite likely to exist. Beyond that, we know very little.

Proxima b orbits its parent star every 11 days. Because of the method used to detect it, we don’t actually know how massive the planet candidate is – but we can say with confidence that it’s at least 1.3 times as massive as the Earth. It’s just over four million miles away from its cool, tiny red dwarf of a star (much closer than we are to our own sun), so it is blasted with enough radiation to maintain a balmy surface temperature of around minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

Based on what we know about the planets that form around red dwarf stars, it’s probably rocky – like Earth, Venus and Mars – and is likely tidally locked, meaning that one face of the planet constantly stares at the sun while the other half is left in darkness.

To call a planet “Earthlike,” scientists have to show that a planet is likely to be rocky and capable of holding liquid water. If Proxima b has an atmosphere – a question unlikely to be answered anytime soon – then it could have a temperature quite close to Earth’s, meaning it would at least be capable of maintaining liquid water on its surface.

Even if Proxima b has (or once had) an atmosphere and held water, the evolution of life is far from guaranteed. For one thing, we’re working with a sample size of one (the Earth) and have no idea how common the spark of life really is – even on planets that have all the same ingredients as the ones found at home.

Then there’s Proxima itself: Known as a flare star, the red devil lashes huge flares of radiation out into space every few hours. Anything that evolved on a nearby planet would have to live deep underground or underwater to survive – unless it evolved some level of protection from radiation that scientists on Earth can scarcely imagine.

The discovery of this planet, be it Earthlike or not, has been a long time coming. Led by Guillem Anglada-Escudé from Queen Mary University of London, 31 scientists from eight different countries spent several months collecting data on Proxima. They were looking to build on previous indications of planetary presence, studying the “wiggle” in the star’s light that would be caused by the seesaw gravitational pull between it and an orbiting planet (this is known as the Doppler method). Such a wiggle had been seen before, but the signal wasn’t strong enough to prove a planet was there.

Anglada-Escudé and his colleagues applied for several months of observation time on the European Southern Observatory’s HARPS (High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher) spectrograph, allowing them to collect 54 nights’ worth of data on this telltale stellar wiggle.

“There had previously been claims of other planets, so we had to be really careful here,” Anglada-Escudé said during an embargoed news briefing held by Nature on Tuesday. The data from those 54 nights made a pretty strong case for the presence of a planet, but “it wasn’t enough.” The researchers weren’t satisfied until they combined their data with the older signals, the ones that hadn’t made enough of a case on their own.

“And then the [statistical] significance goes sky high,” he said.

Others agree that while the planet has yet to be confirmed using direct observational methods, the researchers have likely found something special. ESO astronomer Henri Boffin, who previously worked as HARPS’s instrument scientist but wasn’t involved in the new research, told The Post that Proxima b’s signal looked to be about three times as strong as that of Alpha Centauri Bb, the “planet” that turned out to be nothing but noise.

“It is quite amazing that our closest stellar neighbor would harbor a low-mass planet,” Boffin said. “Even if this is not so surprising after all, as it now seems established that the vast majority of stars host at least one planet, it is still nice to have apparently found the closest to us.”

Now the researchers will look for other methods to help confirm the planet’s existence and learn about its composition. Direct observation – staring at the planet with a telescope – isn’t possible with current technology. The star is just too bright and close to the planet for any telescope to see the latter. There’s a small chance – something like 1.5 percent probability – that the planet “transits” in front of its star, or passes in front of the star from the perspective of Earth’s telescopes. If that’s the case, scientists will be able to study the planet’s mass and atmosphere by analyzing the way Proxima’s light passes around it.

“That’s the first thing we’re going to go look for,” John Brown Paul Strachan, a PhD student at Queen Mary University of London who contributed to the study, told The Post. “If it does transit, then that opens a whole field to us, where we might be able to start seeing details about the atmosphere of the planet.”

But Strachan and his colleagues aren’t giving up hope of a direct observation in the near future. They believe that instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope, launching in 2018, will allow them to glimpse Proxima b in no time.

If Proxima b proves to be a real planet – and one particularly worthy of study – a visit wouldn’t be totally outside the realm of possibility. But even though Proxima is our closest neighbor, it’s still awfully far: NASA’s New Horizons probe had to travel 3 billion miles to get to Pluto and took nearly a decade to do so. At around 25 trillion miles away, a trip to Proxima b would be more than 8,000 times as long. At least one well-funded group is trying to develop the technology needed to propel a tiny probe into the Centauri system, but don’t hold your breath.

Then again, the detection of an Earthlike atmosphere on Proxima b would provide some excellent motivation.

As Anglada-Escudé said in a statement, “The search for life on Proxima b comes next.”

By Rachel Feltman, The Washignton Post

Images: Devastating quake rattles central Italy

0

The Italian Civil Protection agency has described Wednesday’s devastating earthquake that hit near Perrugia as a “severe” seismic event.

At least 120 people were killed after a 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck central Italy in the middle of the night.

Scores of buildings were reduced to dusty piles of masonry in communities close to the epicentre of the 3:32 a.m. quake in a remote area straddling the regions of Umbria, Marche, and Lazio.

A man is rescued alive from the ruins in Amatrice. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters
A man is rescued alive from the ruins in Amatrice. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters
A woman is helped to leave her home by rescuers in Amatrice. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters
A woman is helped to leave her home by rescuers in Amatrice. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters
A woman holds a child as they stand in the street following an earthquake, in Amatrice. The magnitude-6 quake was felt across a broad swath of central Italy, including Rome, where residents of the capital felt a long swaying followed by aftershocks. Photo credit: Massimo Percossi/AP
A woman holds a child as they stand in the street following an earthquake, in Amatrice. The magnitude-6 quake was felt across a broad swath of central Italy, including Rome, where residents of the capital felt a long swaying followed by aftershocks. Photo credit: Massimo Percossi/AP
Rescuers stand by a collapsed house in Amatrice. More than 70 people were killed and hundreds injured as crews raced to dig out survivors. Photo credit: Massimo Percossi/ANSA via AP
Rescuers stand by a collapsed house in Amatrice. More than 70 people were killed and hundreds injured as crews raced to dig out survivors. Photo credit: Massimo Percossi/ANSA via AP
A woman holds a dog in her arms as she walks with a man next to the rubble of buildings in Amatrice. Photo credit: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty
A woman holds a dog in her arms as she walks with a man next to the rubble of buildings in Amatrice. Photo credit: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty
A man walks amid the rubble in Pescara del Tronto. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters
A man walks amid the rubble in Pescara del Tronto. Photo credit: Remo Casilli / Reuters

Black Wednesday as quakes hit Italy, Myanmar

0

At least 120 people were killed after a 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck central Italy in the middle of the night on Wednesday near the town of Perugia, the U.S. Geological Survey said, in what is being described by the Italian Civil Protection agency as a “severe” seismic event.

A man walks amid the rubble of buildings in the town of Amatrice on Wednesday after a powerful earthquake rocked central Italy. Photo credit: Filippo Monteforte/Getty
A man walks amid the rubble of buildings in the town of Amatrice on Wednesday after a powerful earthquake rocked central Italy. Photo credit: Filippo Monteforte/Getty

The epicentre is in the province of Rieti, northeast of Rome. Residents in the capital city reported tremors that lasted as long as 20 seconds. The mayor of Amatrice, a small town with a population of a few thousand, said buildings collapsed and that residents are stuck under debris.

“The roads in and out of town are cut off. Half the town is gone. There are people under the rubble,” Mayor Sergio Perozzi said in a radio interview on RAI. “There’s been a landslide and a bridge might collapse.”

According to the Associated Press, a family of four in the town of Accumoli was “trapped under debris, without any signs of life.” The quake hit at 3:36 a.m. local time. Italian media said several aftershocks were reported, including one that was a magnitude 5.5. Many of the buildings in the affected towns are centuries old.

A USGS geophysicist told CNN the region could be facing “very significant losses.” Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s office said in a tweet that the government is “in contact with all affected areas” and was deploying rescue efforts.

Similarly, an earthquake of about 6.8 magnitude shook central Myanmar on Wednesday afternoon, in a jolt so strong it rattled residents as far away as Bangkok and Kolkota. The quake was reportedly centred about 52 miles below the earth’s surface, making it less likely to cause catastrophic damage.

Most information about damage came out of Kolkata, which suspended services, including the underground metro, over fears of aftershocks. At least 20 people were injured in Bangladesh. The shaking was centred about 15 miles away from Chauk, west of Bagan. Police in the area were investigating reports that some famous monuments and temples may have been damaged.

In Italy, scores of buildings were reduced to dusty piles of masonry in communities close to the epicentre of the 3:32 a.m. quake in a remote area straddling the regions of Umbria, Marche, and Lazio.

Climate change impacting water security, says World Bank

0

A new World Bank reports finds that water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, could hinder economic growth, spur migration, and spark conflict.

The impact of water scarcity on GDP by 2050, relative to a baseline scenario with no scarcity.
The impact of water scarcity on GDP by 2050, relative to a baseline scenario with no scarcity.

The report adds however that most countries can neutralise the adverse impacts of water scarcity by taking action to allocate and use water resources more efficiently.

According to the report, climate change influenced-water scarcity could cost some regions up to 6% of their gross domestic product (GDP).

The combined effects of growing populations, rising incomes, and expanding cities, notes the report, will see demand for water rising exponentially, while supply becomes more erratic and uncertain.

The study warns that, unless action is taken soon, water will become scarce in regions where it is currently abundant – such as Central Africa and East Asia – and scarcity will greatly worsen in regions where water is already in short supply – such as the Middle East and the Sahel in Africa.

These regions, stresses the report, could see their growth rates decline by as much as 6% of GDP by 2050 due to water-related impacts on agriculture, health, and incomes.

Water insecurity could multiply the risk of conflict, says the report, adding that food price spikes caused by droughts can inflame latent conflicts and drive migration.

“Where economic growth is impacted by rainfall, episodes of droughts and floods have generated waves of migration and spikes in violence within countries.

“The negative impacts of climate change on water could be neutralised with better policy decisions, with some regions standing to improve their growth rates by up to 6% with better water resource management,” the report finds.

Some of the report’s other key findings include:

  • Improved water stewardship pays high economic dividends. When governments respond to water shortages by boosting efficiency and allocating even 25% of water to more highly-valued uses, such as more efficient agricultural practices, losses decline dramatically and for some regions may even vanish.
  • In the world’s extremely dry regions, more far-reaching policies are needed to avoid inefficient water use. Stronger policies and reforms are needed to cope with deepening climate stresses.
  • Policies and investments that can help lead countries to more water secure and climate-resilient economies include:

(1) Better planning for water resource allocation;

(2) Adoption of incentives to increase water efficiency, and

(3) Investments in infrastructure for more secure water supplies and availability.

Paris climate agreement may become law this year, Bahamas ratifies pact

0

Fifty-seven countries accounting for 59.88% of global emissions have now indicated they will sign agreement before end of 2016

Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The Paris climate agreement will become international law by the end of 2016 if countries stick to the promises they have made.

According to Climate Analytics, 57 countries have now indicated they will ratify or have already ratified the agreement by year’s end. They account for 59.88% of global emissions.

“Under this scenario, the Paris Agreement will enter into force by the end of the year2,” said the Berlin-based consultancy.

This is coming even as The Bahamas deposited its instrument of ratification of the Paris Agreement with the United Nations on 22 August 2016.

Announcements made by Japan and New Zealand on Wednesday tipped numbers over the dual requirements for the agreement to enter into force of 55 countries and 55% of emissions. The agreement will be activated 30 days after enough countries have ratified the deal.

The UN’s new climate chief Patricia Espinosa said on Wednesday that she was “very hopeful” enough parties would follow through on their intentions1.

In her first interview since succeeding Christiana Figures in May, the Mexican diplomat laid down a challenge to governments to get on with the task.

“Now is the time for ratification and for implementation. It is the time to act together, it is the time to avoid any disastrous consequences of climate change,” she told the UN’s in-house news service.

So far just 22 states, representing just 1.08% of global greenhouse emissions, have taken this step. Leaders have been invited to attend a special event on September 21 where they will be invited to present their ratification to UN secretary general Ban Ki Moon. Nigeria is expected to sign the climate treaty at this forum.

Climate Analytics’ assessment does not include India, which accounts for 4.1% of emissions and is a powerful political force in the talks. India made a joint commitment with the US in June, in which the US committed to ratifying the deal this year, but India’s timeframe was left ambiguous.

Getting ratification is more difficult than a signature: so far 180 countries have signed the deal. Ratification indicates a government has the domestic power to bind their country to the deal, sometimes this requires approval from domestic lawmakers.1

If the targets are reached by October 7, the agreement will be in place before countries come together at the next major climate meeting in Morocco in November.

This would also avoid the possibility of a Donald Trump disaster.

If he wins the presidency in November (the election is midway through the UN meeting) Trump has variously promised to “cancel” and “renegotiate” the Paris deal. But once the agreement enters into force, a clause means all countries will be bound to it for four years.

Once the deal was law, the next stage of the fight against climate change will be to hold all governments to the commitments they made in Paris, said Espinosa.

“We need to focus a lot on implementation of the Paris agreement and which translates to the national programmes on climate change for each and every country. We will need to reach out to all those actors – to governments, to civil societies, to businesses – and help in mobilising them to help in this fight against climate change,” she said.

Espinosa was the Mexican foreign minister who chaired the Cancun climate talks in 2010. Many credit these talks with resuscitating a process grown moribund after the Copenhagen talks failed to deliver a consensus the year before. Since then, she said, the climate process had transformed.

“Today, there is not only trust – there is an enormous enthusiasm about participating in this agenda and about being apart about this transformation process,” said Espinosa.

In a wide-ranging interview, she also discussed her personal motivations for taking on the job. She spoke of visiting disaster struck areas in Latin America during her time as foreign minister.

“I could see very clearly how much suffering this causes, really, a lot of suffering that should not happen,” she said. “In many senses the responsibility, the possibility of becoming the UNFCCC executive secretary brings together a lot of these issues for which I’ve worked for all my life.”

It was this sense of responsibility that Espinosa said she would appeal to when asking leaders to make long-term decisions for the global benefit.

“Actually, climate change is really about the wellbeing of people. It is not a very vague concept or a vague problem that is out of our everyday lives. It is actually affecting our everyday lives and this is the fundamental fact that everybody should keep in mind while working toward a low-carbon society.

“We are talking about the lives of people. So having that consideration in mind, it’s a big driver towards more ambitious and urgent action by everybody,” she said.

By Karl Mathiesen (Climate Home)

Climate change forces Alaskan village to relocate

0

A Native American village in Alaska has voted to relocate its entire population of some 600 people due to the threat of rising seas, officials have said.

The remote village of Shishmaref, Alaska, has been experiencing the effects of climate change first-hand. In the last decades, the island’s shores have been eroding into the sea, falling off in giant chunks whenever a big storm hits. Photo credit:: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images
The remote village of Shishmaref, Alaska, has been experiencing the effects of climate change first-hand. In the last decades, the island’s shores have been eroding into the sea, falling off in giant chunks whenever a big storm hits. Photo credit:: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images

Shishmaref, located on a tiny island north of the Bering Strait that separates the United States and Russia, is losing up to 10 feet of shoreline each year, according to research by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Alabama-based Auburn University.

Shishmaref is one of dozens of indigenous villages in Alaska that face growing threats of flooding and erosion due to global warming, according to a report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Shishmaref residents, who are members of the Inupiat tribe, voted 89 to 78 to relocate, said Donna Barr, secretary of the Shishmaref Council. Voting took place last week, but the official count has not yet been formally certified and a handful of absentee ballots remain unopened.

This is not the first time Shishmaref residents have made such a decision. They voted in 2002 to relocate but that effort stalled.

A few other U.S. communities in Alaska, Washington and Louisiana have decided recently to relocate as well due to climate change and shoreline erosion, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Arctic Institute.

Several others are likely weighing options to move, said Christina DeConcini, a spokeswoman for the Washington, D.C.-based World Resources Institute.

“It’s not going to be the last time that the United States has to deal with communities severely threatened by climate change and impacts and whether or not they can stay there,” she said.

In Shishmaref, Tommy Richter, pastor of the Lutheran Church, the island’s only church, said the community was torn over leaving its heritage behind.

“There are people here who have been here for generations and don’t want to leave at all,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

The cost of relocation has been estimated at some $180 million, and authorities are seeking state and federal funding, according to local media.

Where to relocate remains to be decided, the clerk said. Two vacant sites on the mainland are being considered.

Relocation could take more than 10 years, according to a private feasibility study conducted for Shishmaref and published in February.

The island, which is seven square miles (18 square kilometers), lies five miles off the mainland. Its economy is based largely on fishing and hunting.

Scientists attribute coastal erosion in Shishmaref to global warming that has thawed sea ice that once shielded the island from storm surges. Its permafrost, the layer of permanently frozen soil on which it is built, is melting as well.

The village already has moved several homes and a National Guard Armory away from its coastline and built sea walls that have had limited success, according to Alaska authorities.

In March, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced $6.5 million in funding to help Native American communities find ways to deal with climate change.

Since 2014, more than 140 tribes and tribal organisations have gotten government funding to help address the impacts of global warming, it said.

By Sebastien Malo (Climate Central)

Images: Amina Mohammed visits Morocco

0

Nigeria’s Environment Minister, Amina J. Mohammed, recently embarked on a working Visit to Morocco on the invitation of Moroccan government.

The visit, it was gathered, is geared towards fostering mutual relationship between the Nigeria and Government of Morocco in the area of the environment and sustainable development, in preparation for COP22, which will hold in November in Marrakesh.

The visit offered both nations the opportunity to explore bilateral cooperation on environmental and sustainable development issues. Hosted by her Moroccan counterpart, Hakima El Haite, Mrs Mohammed also visited the NOOR Power Plant. Also called the Ouarzazate Solar Power Station, it is a solar power complex located in the Souss-Massa-Drâa area in Morocco, 10 km from Ouarzazate town, in Ghessat rural council area.

Amina Mohammed leads the Nigerian delegation at a meeting with Moroccan officials
Amina Mohammed leads the Nigerian delegation at a bilateral meeting with Moroccan officials
Amina Mohammed with her Moroccan counterpart, Hakima El Haite
Amina Mohammed with her Moroccan counterpart, Hakima El Haite
Amina Mohammed with Hakima El Haite (middle)
Amina Mohammed with Hakima El Haite (middle) and Marie Nelly of the World Bank
Amina Mohammed being received at the Nigerian Mission in Rabat by Ibrahim Ajadi
Amina Mohammed being received at the Nigerian Mission in Rabat by Ibrahim Ajadi
A visit to the NOOR Power Plant as both nations explore bilateral cooperation on environmental issues
A visit to the NOOR Power Plant as both nations explore bilateral cooperation on environmental issues
The minister meets Mr. Nizar Baraka, President of Scientific Committee for COP22
The minister meets Mr. Nizar Baraka, President of Scientific Committee for COP22
Amina Mohammed being interviewed by a Moroccan medium at the NOOR Power Plant
Amina Mohammed being interviewed by a Moroccan medium at the NOOR Power Plant, a solar power complex
The minister exploring the NOOR Power Plant
The minister exploring the NOOR Power Plant
Nigerian and Moroccan officials exchange views at the NOOR Power Plant
Nigerian and Moroccan officials exchange views at the NOOR Power Plant
The NOOR Power Plant
The NOOR Power Plant, a solar power complex

Eurobonds offer succour for budget financing

0

As the Federal Government begins the process of borrowing from the international markets, by way of floating $1 billion Eurobonds, all eyes are on the relevant authorities for proper utilisation of the bonds

The Debt Management Office (DMO) on behalf of the Federal Government has commenced bids for the engagement of two international banks as joint lead managers and a local bank as financial adviser for the planned Federal Government Medium Term Note (FGMTN) Programme 2016 – 2018, which highlights key borrowings to fund the 2016 budget.

Dr. Abraham Nwankwo, head of the DMO. Photo credit: newsexpressngr.com
Dr. Abraham Nwankwo, head of the DMO. Photo credit: newsexpressngr.com

The plan entails the issuance of $1 billion Eurobonds in the first instance out of the $4.50 billion scheduled to be raised in FGMTN programme in 2016.

Also, positions of the international and Nigerian law firms, which will act as Joint Legal Advisers for the FGMTN as well as technical adviser on communication have been advertised, setting the stage for a major borrowing to cushion the effect of dwindling revenues from oil.

With low oil revenue and exchange rate volatility, including a depressed economy and high interest rate regime worsened by high inflation, such borrowing plan have been applauded by analysts, who believe this would help bring some measure of stability to the economy by helping a cash strapped government to meet its financial obligations.

Although, the debt office has repeatedly assured that the country’s rising debt portfolio, which was over N12 trillion, was still within approved threshold, there are concerns on the need for borrowed funds to be appropriately utilised for key macroeconomic projects.

The fears stemmed from past experiences whereby borrowed funds had been cornered and diverted to other purposes with little or no impact on the economy.

One of the major elements of the new debt management strategy is the remixing of public debt portfolio to 60 per cent domestic and 40 per cent external, from 84 per cent domestic and 16 per cent external in the previous debt strategy document which expired December 2015, with the weighted average interest rates for the FGN’s domestic and external obligations at 13.0 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.

Domestic rates are higher but the differential also reflects the fact that international capital market (ICM) borrowings of US$1.5 billion are the only element of the FGN’s external debt burden of US$10.7 billion contracted on market terms, according to analysts at FBN Capital Research.

The prospects of the FG Eurobonds being successful was further strengthened by the fact that conditions for ICM borrowing by emerging market sovereigns have been improving since China-related fears eased in January and February. Buying surged in July, and has involved the big players, according to FBN Capital.

It said however that an estimated 30 per cent of global government bonds are trading at negative nominal yields so investors are chasing real returns adding that the macro story for the asset class (EM bonds) has not been transformed although there are some bright spots such as India, the Czech Republic and Vietnam. As long as investors see US rate prospects as “lower for longer” and China is relatively incident-free, the rally should have legs.

Nevertheless, it noted that “Nigeria is not currently a bright spot but should enjoy the ride of the asset class as a whole. At the FGN’s non-deal road show in London in early June, investors liked Adeosun’s fiscal narrative but did not appear interested in mooted Eurobonds issuance because of the then exchange-rate regime.

“We trust that the change in that regime will also have smoothed the FGN’s talks with the World Bank and the African Development Bank on budget support. The 2016 budget projected the external component of budget deficit financing at N900 billion (US$4.5 billion at the time but currently US$2.9 billion.”

Meanwhile, economist and ex-banker, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, said the Eurobond is a good alternative only if it would be applied to appropriate projects.

He said: “Raising Eurobonds of $4.5 billion is a wise economic decision to take in the prevailing circumstance. The revenue base of our country has been so eroded that we must need this kind of credit intervention. The vandalised pipelines have left us with far less than projected revenue base. Such credit inflows will be used to inject and stimulate our economic system and activities.

“The budget needs to be funded. Don’t forget that our budget was already a deficit budget. The inability of the country to realise its projected revenues is an added burden on the system. The Eurobond therefore is a welcome decision if indeed it will be applied appropriately to those macroeconomic areas that will in turn drive the micro economy.”

Also, economist and former acting Unity Bank Managing Director, Mr. Muhammed Rislanudenn, also harped on the utilisation of proceeds from the offers.

He said: “The 2016 budget was expansionary, anchored on deficit of N2.2 trillion. Recall that the entire capital aspect of the budget was N1.8 trillion, meaning that without borrowing and even assuming achieving full 2016 revenue projections, implementation of particularly capital expenditure of the budget will be impossible. Indeed less than N400 billion has so far been released for capital projects even as attack on oil facilities has impacted negatively on state projected revenue sources. In the light of that and with economy already contracting at negative 2016 first quarter GDP of -0.36 per cent and unemployment rate of 12.1 per cent, government ought to have been more proactive in acting fast to negotiate those loans to support critical sectors that will reflate the economy and pull it out of recession and stagflation.

“Deficit financing is the right thing to do. More so our debt to GDP ratio is very low. What is important is optimum utilisation of the resources borrowed to ensure we do not unduly overburden future generations with debts without commensurate revenue sources of repayment.”

However, Director General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Dr. Abraham Nwankwo, said the new four-year borrowing plan was appropriate for the times and challenges as well as appropriate for the country’s vision going forward.

Nwankwo had also addressed “undue” concerns over the ability to service external debts, maintaining that on-going efforts by government aimed at diversifying the economy will ultimately increase items for exports and create job opportunities- the conditions, he argued, could further correct exchange rate vulnerabilities and boost reserves.

Oceans began warming in the mid-1800s, study says

0

Around 1830, just decades after the start of the Industrial Revolution, something happened around the world: As factories fueled by coal power spread across much of Great Britain, humans began to change the chemistry of the atmosphere, adding carbon dioxide to the air in small but increasing amounts. Not long after, the planet’s oceans started to warm up, kicking off a trend that continues today.

Ocean surf. Scientists say oceans began warming in the mid-1800s
Ocean surf. Scientists say oceans began warming in the mid-1800s

That’s the message of a new study by a team of international scientists who set out to answer a fundamental question: When did manmade climate change begin? Drawing on a roughly 500-year history of temperatures in the oceans and on land, the group concluded that the warming of the planet may have started early in the 1800s – and much earlier than typical climate change graphs depict. The results show that even small amounts of carbon dioxide may be able to shift how fast the planet is warming, with both positive and negative repercussions.

“It tells us that our climate system is able to respond relatively quickly to greenhouse gases, at least in some areas,” says Nerilie Abram, an Associate Professor of Earth Sciences at the Australian National University in Canberra and lead author of the new paper. “Maybe we can also flip that around to ask: if we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions, are there some areas where we could see quick paybacks?”

The study was an effort of the 2k Network of PAGES (Past Global Changes), a research project of Future Earth investigating global paleo changes.

The question of when warming began isn’t just one for the history books. To know how much humans have altered the climate, you have to know when to start measuring, Abram says. Researchers with PAGES had previously pieced together a reconstruction of past temperatures over the globe’s land surfaces using records from tree rings and other sources. But the oceans are critical to the planet’s climate: They stretch over 70% of the globe and, according to scientists, have absorbed nearly 90% of the warming caused by climate change in recent decades.

To recreate how the temperature of the oceans had changed over hundreds of years, the team drew on data from two sources: microscopic organisms that swam at the oceans’ surface then died and became buried on the sea floor. And corals. Abram explains that like trees, corals grow in predictable ways: “Corals are a lot like the trees of the ocean,” she says. “Every year they grow, there’s a growth ring. We can look at the chemistry of that ring, and that tells us about the temperature of the oceans.”

By bringing together those sources, Abram’s team was able to reconstruct a temperature timeline of the oceans. That timeline covers most of the planet’s oceans from the seas surrounding Greenland and Antarctica to the tropics. Based on those results, the oceans seemed to have begun a steady uptick in temperature around the time that Queen Victoria came into power in Britain. Not that anyone standing at one of the country’s industrial ports would have noticed.

“Somebody living in the 1830s or even the 1890s would not have been able to distinguish that there was this change afoot,” she says. “It’s by having this long record now that extends almost 200 years from that point that we can go back and say ‘Well, this was when the changes first started.’”

But just because the oceans were warming doesn’t mean that the culprit was the carbon dioxide billowing from newly-constructed factories. To make that extra connection, Abram and her colleagues turned to computer simulations, or models.

Up until the early 19th Century, the planet had been in a cool period, explains Nicholas McKay, who is an Assistant Professor in Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability at Northern Arizona University and one of the authors of the study. That relatively chilly era was due to a series of volcanic eruptions, such as a massive blast from Mount Tambora in what is now Indonesia in 1815, that spewed huge clouds of ash into the atmosphere. Theoretically, the increase in ocean temperatures around 1830 could have been the result of the climate recovering after volcanoes around the world had gone quiet again.

“If you run the models with only volcanos and no increases in greenhouse gases, you see a warming, starting in the early 1800s”, McKay says. “But then it levels off, and you don’t see that warming continue through the 20th Century.” When the researchers ran those models with an increase in greenhouse gas levels, however, the globe started warming around 1830 and didn’t stop – much like what the team saw in the coral records.

Still, like Abram, McKay says that the study isn’t doom and gloom. Small reductions in greenhouse gas emissions won’t stop the planet from heating up, he says, but they could slow down the speed of that change. “In some ways, it’s a really positive message because it suggests that the climate system can respond really quickly to relatively small changes in greenhouse gases,” McKay says. “It means that our actions as a society, both positive and negative, can result in an immediate impact.”

GHG emission: Need for climate justice

0

The shining of the sun all through the day and the continuous falling of rain do not necessarily mean climate change. We should bear in mind that these characteristics are good examples of weather condition while the melting of ice in the Polar Regions and extreme temperature in the Tropical Regions can be attributed to climate change.

GHG emission: A coal-fired power plant
GHG emission: A coal-fired power plant

It is apparent that climate changes at a snail pace, which is the more reason why our global climate is thus the outcome of 30 years of average weather condition across the planet. Greenhouse gas, on the other hand, according to Wikipedia, is “a gas in the atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range”. The important greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane and steam.

It is no gain saying that climate change has being politicised over the years, so that people will not attribute so much importance to it. When people mention climate change, many others respond with, “So what?” and snub – as if it is not something serious. We should not blame them for this ill-chosen response and their poor knowledge of climate actions and its horrendous effects because it is the doing of the government to scare people away from knowing the truth.

It is very important to paraphrase the politicking of climate change and injustice amongst nations for the purpose of education. On the 30th of November 2015, approximately 150 countries met in Paris for the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), popularly known as COP21. The main purpose of this meeting was to deliberate and agree a global, legally binding deal to make sure that global average temperature change does not exceed 20C by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. If this is eventually achieved, the agreement would be one of the greatest successes in the history of mankind as it seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that forbids climate change cataclysmic events.

Unfortunately, it is heart troubling to know that only a few countries stick to this agreement and the rest of the world commitments would overshoot the 20C target by almost a degree. However, the effects of the 10C rise in global temperature have led to sea level rise, drought, flooding, and desertification, amongst others.

The Nigerian state is a living testimony to these effects, ranging from the increasing level of desertification and desert encroachment experienced in core northern part of the country like Borno, Yobe and Jigawa. We will also not forget, for a long time to come, the deadliest flood disaster witnessed in Nigeria in 2012, which led to the death of hundreds of people and displaced about 2.1 million people.

To paint an uglier picture, only few people knew, according to Felix and Friends in their book titled, “Tree by Tree”, that “approximately one billion people in the USA and Europe are responsible for 60 percent of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the air and the rest of humanity around six billion (6,000,000,000) people share the remaining 40 percent”.

The most painful part of this story is that developing countries of the world that emit the least CO2 are the most vulnerable to its effect. Now, the rhetorical question to ask is that, is this fair? Is this equally or justly shared? Of course not! Why would some quarters of the world suffer for the deliberate actions of some unrepentant states? This is left for the world to judge.

It is germane at this juncture to state clearly that Climate Justice is the only answer to balancing greenhouse gas emission equation around the world. Irrespective of colour, religion, ethnicity or political affiliation, everybody should have right to emit the same amount of CO2, though it might sound foreign at first but it is the only way we can help ourselves and the dying climate. The rule is that 1.5 tons of carbon dioxide should be consumed by one person each year, judging by the present level of CO2 in the atmosphere. If this can be achieved, the earth’s atmosphere will at long last restore itself. Furthermore, the United Nations must see to it by making a law that ensures nobody emits more than this quota a year and anybody that needs more of CO2 will have to buy extra “pollution right”. Also, the government at all levels must buy into this idea by saving the earth’s atmosphere and humanity at large.

Emission trading that happens to be the approach to implementing Climate Justice since the 2005 Climate Summit would help countries in trading emissions, most importantly carbon dioxide, so as to justify and balance its use. If an African man that emits less CO2 can only use 0.5 tons of his allotted 1.5 limits per year, then he can at will sell out the remaining 1.0 tons to other people in advanced countries that need to emit more than 1.5 tons of CO2 per year. This simple mathematics and trading will help put a smile on the faces of Africans as their governments will have enough money to build social and infrastructural facilities and also create an eco-friendly environment. It will also help change people’s behavior by consuming more of locally made products than foreign ones, as the latter will cost far more than the former because more CO2 will be burnt to transport such goods.

Conclusively, I hope the COP22 coming up between 7 and 18 of November 2016, in Marrakesh, Morocco, will address the implementation of the “emission trading” law, and I have no doubt in my mind that if this could be achieved, we will all sustainably trade emissions and achieve real climate justice.

By Alabede Surajdeen (environmentalist and SDGs Advocate; alabedekayode@gmail.com; @BabsSuraj)

×