The Federal Government has approved Ilorin and Enugu University Teaching Hospitals as special sentinel sites for surveillance of Rotavirus Diarrhea disease and Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis in children.
Dr. Faisal Shuaib, the Executive Director, National Primary Health Care Development Agency
Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among infants and young children.
Dr. Faisal Shuaib, the Executive Director, National Primary Health Care Development Agency, made this known in a statement issued by Saadu Salahu, Head, Public Relations Unit of the agency.
Shuaib said the findings from the sentinel sites would help in information sharing and data collection on rotavirus and pneumococcal disease burden in Nigeria.
He added that the sites would provide additional information on the impact of the vaccine introduction into routine immunisation, guide government in making public health policies and interventions.
The executive director said government in collaboration with World Health Organisation (WHO) had earlier operated three sentinel sites for new Vaccines Surveillance in Nigeria.
According to Shuaib, the sentinel sites are University Teaching Hospital Benin, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University Teaching Hospital Bauchi, and Lagos University Teaching Hospital Lagos.
Shuaib said: “The three sites provide Paediatric Bacterial Meningitis (PBM) services only, while UNTH and UITH had been designated as sentinel sites for Rotavirus and other diarrhea-related diseases among children aged under years.”
He said the data from the sites would provide baseline information for different serotypes of rotavirus and other diarrhea causing pathogen diseases before the planned Rotavirus vaccine introduction in 2018.
He said WHO had earlier recommended the introduction of rotavirus vaccines into the routine immunisation schedule in countries with high diarrhea mortality rates in children as an approach to prevent and control diarrhea.
He said government would work closely with the five sentinel sites and partners to further reduce morbidity and mortality from vaccine preventable diseases.
The executive director appealed to parents, guardians and all caregivers to avail themselves of the rare opportunity provided by the joint investments of the Federal Government and WHO.
Nigeria has underscored the need for the proposed actions for strengthening the Science-Policy Interface in the BRS Conventions.
Prof. Babajide Alo
At a side event held on Tuesday, April 25, 2017 during the 2017 Conferences of the Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm (BRS) Conventions holding in Geneva, Switzerland, the West African country suggested the adoption of a comprehensive road map to actualise this suggestion.
A major decision to be taken by the BRS COP 2017 is on the need to strengthen the science-policy interface and to consider establishing a Science to Action road map for further engaging Parties and other stakeholders in an informed dialogue for enhanced science-based action in the implementation of the BRS.
The Nigerian stand was unveiled in a presentation titled: “The need for science-policy interface” delivered by Professor Babajide Alo of the University of Lagos during the side event, which was organised by Nigeria in collaboration with the GEF-STAP (Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel) and the BRS Secretariat.
Pointing out that, as good policies for sustainable development will require the best possible science, the Professor of Chemistry clamours support by policy makers of strategies to strengthen partnerships between the science community and the BRS Conventions.
According to him, capacity-building of scientists and increased dialogue between scientists and governments/policy makers especially in developing countries and CEITs is crucial, in order for scientists to provide policy relevant advice.
“The case of the IPCC shows that there can be close interaction with policy makers throughout the scientific process, without compromising on the independence of scientists,” he stated.
Prof. Alo, who is a Fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Sciences (NAS), adds that awareness raising of all stakeholders of the science behind emerging environmental issues is also critical.
“As Glaser and Bates posited in 2011, education and awareness raising in Science for policy is of vital importance for the process and this can be achieved through educating the public and policy makers about scientific processes and scientific findings, so that they will be more engaged and interested in the entire process of scientific research; training of new scientists, in developing countries through improving education and capacity-building,” he stressed.
Prof. Alo emphasised that, besides educating scientists on how to effectively communicate their findings, more funding to support generation of relevant scientific data and new knowledge to assist decision-making and policy development will also positively impact the importance of the science-policy interface.
Essentially, Prof Alo in the paper reaffirmed that scientific assessments do underpin and have globally been used by all legally binding instruments to inform the decisions made by the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) of the Conventions, and that the triple Conventions of the BRS cannot be different as the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm conventions are indeed science-based, legally binding global treaties.
He recalls that several paragraphs of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA 2) in 2016 especially the Resolution 2/7 on Sound Management of Chemicals emphasised the importance and need for good science to inform policy.
“Scientific knowledge and appropriate technologies are central to resolving the economic, social and environmental problems that make current development paths unsustainable. Hence there should be an intimate connection between the scientific and policy making communities. Such a connection will help make research and scientific information more policy-relevant, and policy development and implementation more science based,” he noted.
Prof Alo says that despite clear scientific evidence of the importance of scientific knowledge, the implementation of sustainable development issues in developing countries has to a large extent failed so far. He attributes this to “serious disconnect between scientific knowledge generation/availability and the way that policy is formulated, and there often seems to be a lack of urgency among policy makers when addressing sustainable development issues leading to calls for improvements in the science-policy interface.”
His words: “Many policy decisions in many developing countries like in Nigeria and CEITs are taken even in the absence of full scientific certainty. Such countries use scientific data from other countries to make decisions in recognition of the precautionary approach. Good examples of science-policy interface global level include the Montreal Protocol On Substances That Deplete The Ozone Layer and the UNFCC with the IPCC mechanism. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is today perhaps one of the best examples of a body which combines full scientific credibility with full policy relevance and high political legitimacy.”
The thirteenth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Basel Convention (BC COP-13), the eighth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Rotterdam Convention (RC COP-8) and the eighth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Stockholm Convention (SC COP-8) commenced on Monday, April 24, 2017 and will come to a close on Friday, May 5.
The UN Women, with support from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), has launched a new guidebook to help practitioners mainstream gender into climate change projects and programmes. It has been described as a “go-to” publication, which presents methodologies and tools to address the gender gap.
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Executive Director, UN Women
Gender mainstreaming for climate change is the process of assessing and responding to the differentiated implications for women and men of any planned climate action, including legislation, policies or programmes. Gender mainstreaming is not simply about adding a “women’s component”. Gender mainstreaming is about thinking differently, modifying climate and development interventions so that they will benefit men and women equally. It is about transforming social, economic and institutional structures towards gender equality and women’s empowerment in climate action and resilience building.
The impacts of climate change, including on access to productive and natural resources, amplify existing gender inequalities. Climate change affects women’s and men’s assets and well-being differently in terms of agricultural production, food security, health, water and energy resources, climate-induced migration and conflict, and climate-related natural disasters.
At the same time, women are powerful change agents to address climate change at scale. They are key actors in building community resilience and responding to climate-related disasters. Women tend to make decisions about resource use and investments in the interest and welfare of their children, families, and communities.
Systematically addressing gender gaps in responding to climate change is one of the most effective mechanisms to build the climate resilience of households, communities and nations.
For this, a paradigm shift is needed towards gender mainstreaming.
This guidebook is part of UN Women’s and its partners’ efforts to champion such a paradigm shift. The handbook can be accessed here.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will hold a scoping meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on from Monday May 1 to Friday, May 5, 2017 to draft the outline of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The meeting will bring together 200 experts from some 60 countries.
The IPCC decided to produce the AR6 in February 2015. It is due to be completed in the first half of 2022. The meeting in Addis Ababa will draft the outline and indicative coverage of the contents of the three Working Group contributions to the report, which will be released in 2021, for consideration by the IPCC when it next meets in September. A further scoping meeting is planned for November 2018 to draft the outline of the Synthesis Report, which will integrate the three Working Group contributions and the three Special Reports that are being prepared in this assessment cycle.
“With this meeting we are taking a decisive step to advance the work plan of the IPCC. During the AR6 cycle we will see one or more policy-relevant reports released almost every year from 2018 until 2022,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “The AR6 Synthesis Report will be delivered in time for the first global stocktake in 2023 by the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement.”
The AR6 will assess scientific findings that have been published since the IPCC’s last comprehensive report, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which was completed in 2014. AR5 provided crucial input into the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in December 2015. The AR5 report findings pointed to the fact that the world has the means to limit global warming and build a more prosperous and sustainable future, but pathways to limit warming to 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades.
Prior to the scoping meeting, IPCC Bureau members and authors are presenting the findings and activities of the Panel in workshops for policymakers, academia, media and students as part of a two-day outreach event on 29 to 30 April organised by the African Climate Policy Centre of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.
“Africa is vulnerable to climate change but various adaptation and mitigation options exist to make society more resilient and create opportunities for a sustainable future,” said Youba Sokona, Vice-Chair of the IPCC. “We hope that these timely events will encourage more scientists from the region to participate in the work of the IPCC during the AR6 cycle.”
The scoping meeting, outreach event and an Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilisation Scenarios, which held 26 to 28 April, were hosted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and ofo, a Beijing-based start-up company that has become the world’s first and largest bike sharing platform, are joining forces to raise public awareness about climate change.
L-R: Mr. Li Zekun, Vice President of Marketing, and Mr. Dai Wei, Founder and CEO, with ofo’s bright yellow bikes outside UN Headquarters. Photo credit: Freya Morales / UNDP
The partnership will also provide financial support to innovative projects that address urban environmental challenges, expected to reach 100 million people, including school children, with campaign messages about the adverse effects of climate change and ways all of us can reduce CO2 emissions.
UNDP and ofo will also establish a joint scholarship programme to support environmental research projects and will provide small grants to start-ups offering green products and technologies.
ofo, which currently has over 30 million people using its app to share bicycles in China, Singapore and the US, will donate its income on the 17th of each month to celebrate the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs – also known as the Global Goals – are an ambitious blueprint agreed upon by nearly 200 nations to eradicate poverty and inequality by 2030.
UNDP, which is the world’s largest development organisation, will advise ofo on an innovative initiative which will see ofo redistributing abandoned bikes to rural areas to improve access to education for children living in poverty.
“Both UNDP and ofo are innovators when it comes to finding ways of reducing the emissions related to the burning of fossil fuels, and this is an innovative partnership which will make real strides towards protecting our precious environment,” said Michael O’Neill, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Director of External Relations.
“We are very proud to be partnering with UNDP as we both work together towards achieving one of the key goals agreed by the world in 2015: the goal of a clean, sustainable safe environment and planet for all of us,” said Chief Executive Officer of ofo, Dai Wei.
Speaking to media executives in Abuja recently, Nnimmo Bassey (Director, Health of Mother Earth Foundation), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (Convener of Nigerians against GMOs), Mariann Bassey-Orovwuje (Food Sovereignty Programme, Friends of the Earth Nigeria/Africa) and Dr. Ifeyinwa Aniebo (African Health Magazine), jointly demand the protection of food and the environment via the revocation of Monsanto’s GMO permits, as well as the repeal of the National Biosafety Management Agency (NBMA) Act of 2015
Minister of State for Environment, Ibrahim Jibril, (middle) with visiting CSO representatives such as Nnimmo Bassey (Director, Health of Mother Earth Foundation), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (Convener of Nigerians against GMOs) and Mariann Bassey-Orovwuje (Food Sovereignty Programme, Friends of the Earth Nigeria/Africa) on the issue of GMOs in Nigeria
The National Biosafety Management Agency (NBMA) Act of 2015 was signed into law in the dying days of the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. In spite of the far-reaching importance of biosafety matters to citizens of Nigeria, the process that led to the passage of the Biosafety Bill and its eventual signing into law was trailed by unresolved controversies and complaints from key stakeholders including farmers, consumers and civil society groups.
Besides the lack of elegance in the drafting of the law, some provisions do not make sense at all and in some places, references are made to incorrect sections or to non-existent sections. We believe the Act requires to be repealed or at a minimum have a thorough reworking, particularly with regard to the following:
Access to information
Public consultation and participation
Liability and redress
Labelling and the right to know
Decision-making
Appeals and reviews
Conflict of interest: The Composition of the Governing Board is arbitrary and populated with GMOs promoters
The Precautionary Principle
Conflict of interest is inbuilt in the NBMA Act and raises acute red flags about the administration of biosafety in Nigeria. For example, two of the permits issued by NBMA to Monsanto Agriculture Nigeria Limited (the confined field trial of two maize varieties) were applied for by the company in partnership with one of the members of the NBMA board, the National Biotechnology Development Agency (NABDA). With a GMO promoter applying for a permit in partnership with a biotech company, and sitting to approve the same permit, there are obvious reasons to call the entire transaction to question.
The NBMA Act gives the agency enormous amounts of discretionary powers with not enough mandatory duties in the operational provisions to ensure that the agency performs a stewardship role to ensure that GMOs do not pose harm to human and animal health, society and the environment.
We are also concerned that NBMA approved and issued “Permit for Commercial release/Placing on Market of Cotton (MON15985) genetically modified for lepidopteran insect pest” on Sunday 1st May 2015 when government offices do not open. In fact, 2nd May 2015 was also a public holiday. In addition, it is regrettable that NBMA approved Monsanto’s proposal for Bt cotton in May 2015 despite the fact that Burkina-Faso’s cabinet on April 14, 2016 announced its discontinuation with genetically modified cotton due to the poor quality of the cotton. It is worthy of note that cotton production has improved in Burkina Faso in both quality and quantity since they reverted to non-GMOs varieties.
In our objections to the applications by Monsanto and NABDA, we raised serious concerns that would have led to the rejection of the unwarranted applications if they had been considered. We raised concerns related to health, environmental, socio-economic, technical, administrative, molecular concerns, safety assessments and environment risk assessment. We also pointed out that the applicants did not show how they would deal with secondary pests, exposure pathways and pest resistance. Safety and environmental risks and issues of liability and redress were also not adequately addressed by the applicants.
NBMA by its letter of 28th April 2016 acknowledged receipt of objection from Health of Mother Earth Foundation and other civil society groups, stated: “Your observations have been noted by the Agency… That the National Biosafety Management Agency would review the application holistically and take the best interest of Nigeria, to avoid risks to human health, biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. The socio- economic impacts would also be well considered before taking the final decision on the application.”
We consider it intriguing and suspicious that a mere one working day after this letter, NBMA issued permits to Monsanto. There is no evidence that our objections were considered. This smacks of utter disdain for opinions and positions of concerned citizens who are conscious of the devastating socio-economic and environmental impacts of the failure of these crops, especially GM cotton in neighbouring Burkina Faso as well as in India, Pakistan and elsewhere.
In this era of change we cannot cling to wrong-headed policies or cling to the wrong foot put forward by the previous government. Having a biotech policy cannot be a justification for opening up the nation’s fragile ecosystems and environment to genetically modified organisms. A biotech policy cannot erase the globally accepted Precautionary Principle on which Biosafety regulations hang. We demand that these permits be overturned and the Biosafety law itself repealed and replaced with a people/environmentally sensitive and friendly law.
We reiterate our demand for a nullification of the permits issued to Monsanto and NABDA on Sunday 1st may 2016 and call for an investigation of the process and circumstances leading to the granting of these permits by NBMA to Monsanto and NABDA in disregard to the complaints of millions of Nigerians. Nigerians should not be used as pawns and as guinea pigs in a commercial gambit to open the country to toxic technologies in furtherance of blatant commercial interests.
We also pledge our readiness to work with the media to elevate the voices of Nigerians on these sensitive and life/death matters. We and our partners will also work with the Federal Ministry of Environment and other relevant ministries and agencies to repeal the NBMA Act 2015 that is formulated to flood our country with GMOs rather than protect our biodiversity and ensure biosafety and biosecurity.
The Green Climate Fund’s (GCF) first Structured Dialogue with Asia opened on Wednesday, April 26, 2017 in Denpasar, the capital city and main hub of the Indonesian province of Bali. The forum is seeking a common cause amid diversity in bringing together representatives from 24 nations, even as participants set out to share their climate experiences, and advise the GCF on how it can direct its investments in the region.
The city of Denpasar in Bali, Indonesia is hosting the Green Climate Fund’s (GCF) first Structured Dialogue with Asia
The four-day meeting is highlighting climate finance priorities in Asia. It is also providing opportunities for countries to show what progress they have made in responding to climate change.
The diverse nature of Asia means the types of climate challenges that nations in this region face vary greatly – from droughts and floods in India, caused by monsoonal variability, to obstacles in boosting renewable and energy efficiency in Mongolia, caused by outdated infrastructure.
Participating nations in the Structured Dialogue with Asia do, however, share a common purpose in their desire to seek opportunities in climate finance to build local capacities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to adapt to global climate change.
The GCF holds Structured Dialogues in all regions to encourage a free flow of ideas about effective climate finance. The consultations gather National Designated Authorities (NDAs) and focal points, Accredited Entities, a wide group of country stakeholders, both from civil society and private sector organisations, as well as GCF specialists.
An important outcome of GCF’s Structured Dialogues is the development of regional programming roadmaps that identify trends and emerging priorities for different regions.
The Indonesian Government is hosting this Structured Dialogue in Bali where it convened other pivotal gatherings such as the 13th United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) in 2007 which launched the Bali Road Map, an early kick starter of climate cooperation leading to the 2015 Paris Agreement. Indonesia also hosted the 6th meeting of the Green Climate Fund Board in 2014.
Several ministers from Asian countries are attending the GCF Structured Dialogue in Bali.
The process for a comprehensive independent audit of the oil and gas sector by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has commenced.
Executive Secretary of NEITI, Waziri Adio
The independent audit, to be conducted in line with the principles and standards of the global Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, will cover the period 2015 and 2016 respectively.
Executive Secretary of NEITI, Waziri Adio, announced this recently in Lagos at a workshop for major oil companies and relevant government agencies expected to participate in the exercise.
Mr. Adio explained that the workshop was designed to acquaint the participants with the structure and content of the template, the kinds of questions that NEITI would ask and the answers expected to be provided by the covered entities. “This workshop is to seek your views, suggestions and inputs as well as listen to your concerns on how to make the exercise hitch-free,” Mr. Adio added.
The workshop witnessed presentations on the EITI processes, methods, principles and standards including emerging issues on beneficial ownership and contract transparency. The benefits of implementing EITI in Nigeria also topped discussions at the interactive session.
The Executive Secretary announced that NEITI would introduce a ranking reward system to incentivise participation of covered entities. Under the ranking system, companies will be graded based on their efficiency in populating the audit templates including the quality and depth of information and data provided, quick response to set deadlines among other considerations.
He further explained that the ranking system will be shared with over 51 member countries of the global EITI and multi-lateral organisations to serve as reference points on adherence to business ethics for major investment decisions in Nigeria.
Adio stressed: “NEITI is committed to working closely with the companies under the EITI framework to create good business environment that is conducive for the inflow of more foreign direct investments into the extractive sector. For this to happen we encourage all companies to embrace transparency, accountability and corporate governance in conformity with the EITI standards.”
He however warned that NEITI would not hesitate to invoke relevant sanctions under the law on companies and other covered entities that fail to cooperate with it during the exercise.
All major international oil and gas companies operating in Nigeria were represented at the workshop. Also in attendance were relevant government agencies such as the NNPC, the FIRS, DPR, NDDC and NLNG. The event was also attended by a cross section of the media and the civil society.
While reviewing the templates, the representatives of the respective companies welcomed the objective of the workshop, describing it as a fundamental step in building partnerships and trust with NEITI in the execution of its mandate. They urged NEITI to note very carefully their observations and the issues they have raised at the workshop with a view to ensuring that the reviewed template suits the peculiar operations of the diverse covered entities slated to participate in the process.
NEITI has already commenced distribution of the templates to participating companies and government agencies. All populated templates with the required information and data are expected to be returned to NEITI on or before the 31st of May, 2017. NEITI is expected to conclude the independent audit and make its findings public by the end of the year.
The independent audit of the oil and gas sector by NEITI for the period 2015 and 2016 will examine the fiscal, physical and process issues from, within and among the companies and relevant government agencies.
The audit will therefore undertake special verification and validation of information and data on the payments made by the companies to government entities as well as government receipts. Other areas that the audit will cover will include quantities and volumes of crude produced, balances payable or receivable on certain financial transactions, taxes, royalties on project by project basis, social contributions and investment flows.
The overall goal is to ascertain if the fiscal, physical and process transactions in the oil and gas sector during the period under review were in line with the transparency and accountability standards as well as the principles of the global extractive industries transparency initiative which NEITI is implementing in Nigeria.
Following Super Sport’s stoppage of the sponsorship of the Nigerian Professional Football League (NPFL), the League Management Company (LMC) has been advised to look inward towards live transmission of its league matches.
Adama idris
Former Director of Marketing of the Nigerian Football Federation (NFF), Adama Idris, said it has become crucial for LMC to shift base to local stations who, according to him, should be ready to take responsibilities.
“The media organisations within Nigeria like the Nigeria Television Authority (NTA) or under the umbrella of Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON), can’t they put money on the table to sponsor the league of this country as a national assets?”
Adama said sports is big business all over the world and must be seen as such by most of the domestic stations in Nigeria.
Super Sport over the weekend announced that it was withdrawing from the sponsorship of the Nigerian Premier League for alleged irregularities.
Meanwhile, former Super Eagles coach, Austin Equavoen, and goalkeeper trainer, Ike Shorunmu, were on Tuesday, April 25, 2017 unveiled as new handlers of Sunshine Stars of Akure.
They were charged to lift the team from its dwindling fortunes in the NPFL.
Team Chairman, Gbenga Elegbeleye, boasted after the unveiling the duo that Equavoen is the type of coach the Owena Waves needs now.
“He is a well learned coach and somebody with track records that would help the team from the relegation zone. I believe Equavoen has very good chance of doing the job for us,” he said.
Captain of the team, Sunday Abe, pledged his support and that of his teammates for the newly-appointed technical handlers.
Sunshine Stars is currently 18th on the league chat and has an outstanding game with Enugu Rangers of Enugu this weekend.
A new scientific assessment of climate change in the Arctic, by the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), concludes that the Arctic is shifting – rapidly and in unexpected ways – into a new state. If current trends are allowed to continue, they will have increasingly profound impacts on human health and safety, industries and economies, and ecosystems around the world.
Arctic region
But the assessment, an update of AMAP’s 2011 Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) report, also found cause for hope: Implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement would limit the extent to which the Arctic climate changes over the remaining decades of this century. While the Arctic environment will continue to change regardless of efforts to reduce emissions, the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce future changes in the Arctic after mid- century, compared with a business-as-usual scenario.
More than 90 scientists contributed to the new assessment, which was peer-reviewed by 28 experts. The assessment mainly covered the period 2011-2015, with updates to include observations from 2016 and early 2017.
What have scientists observed?
The warming of the Arctic, marked by record-setting temperatures in recent years, is leading to continued or accelerating losses in sea ice and snow, melting of glaciers and ice sheets, freshening and warming of the Arctic Ocean, thawing of permafrost, and ecological shifts. SWIPA 2017 found that the Arctic was warmer from 2011 to 2015 than at any time in the period of instrumental records beginning around 1900 in the Arctic, and the Arctic has been warming more than twice as rapidly as the world as a whole for the past 50 years. During the winters of 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, near-surface air temperature extremes were nearly double (+6°C) those of the previous maximums for these months. Intrusions of warm air delayed sea-ice freeze-up in the Chukchi and Kara Seas, in turn allowing the warm air to advance further toward the North Pole.
A record low minimum in sea ice extent occurred in 2012, and a record low maximum sea ice extent occurred in 2016. New observations from March 2017 show the lowest extent ever for this month since the start of satellite observation. Most sea ice in the Arctic is now “first year” ice that grows in autumn and winter but melts during the spring and summer. The area covered by snow during the month of June in the North American and Eurasian Arctic is now typically about half that observed before 2000.
Meltwater from Arctic glaciers, ice sheets, and ice caps accounts for more than a third of global sea level rise, according to the new assessment. Since 2000, ice on Greenland – the source of 70% of the Arctic’s contribution to sea-level rise – has released enough meltwater to raise global sea levels by more than 1 centimetre.
What are the projections and implications for the future?
The physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Arctic are undergoing fundamental changes, with important consequences for Arctic ecosystems and people living and working in the Arctic. The Arctic plays an important role in global climate and weather, sea level rise, and world commerce, meaning that impacts in the Arctic will resonate far south of the Arctic Circle.
Autumn and winter temperatures in the Arctic are projected to increase to 4–5°C above late 20th century values before mid-century, twice the increase for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free in summer by the late 2030s, earlier than projected by most climate models. Changes in sea ice affect populations of polar bears, ice-dependent species of seals and, in some areas, walrus, which rely on sea ice for survival and reproduction.
Projections for the end of the century vary widely based on assumptions about future emissions. A high-emissions scenario (business as usual) would lead to transformative changes in the Arctic, with the average winter temperature in 2100 increasing by 12°C relative to that of the late 20th century. In contrast, an emissions reductions scenario (similar to but not as stringent as that envisioned under the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C), would produce a warming in the Arctic of around 6°C in winter.
Studies have linked the loss of land and sea ice in the Arctic, along with changes in snow cover, to changes in Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, floods, and winter weather patterns – even finding evidence that Arctic changes influence the onset and rainfall amounts of Southeast Asian monsoons. This evidence suggests that future changes in the Arctic will affect weather elsewhere in the world even more than they do today.
Another key finding of SWIPA 2017 is that the most optimistic estimates of future sea level rise (at the lowest end of the range) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may be too low. If increases in greenhouse gas concentrations continue at current rates, the melting of Arctic land-based ice would contribute at least another 25 centimetres to sea-level rise between 2006 and 2100, potentially affecting hundreds of millions of people living along coastlines and low-lying islands.
What can we do?
To limit future damages, the world will need to make substantial near-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, greater than those currently planned by parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement would cause Arctic temperatures to stabilise – at a higher level than today – in the latter half of this century, and would avoid more than 20 centimetres of additional global sea level rise compared with what would occur under a business-as-usual scenario.
Because the climate system takes time to fully respond to changes in greenhouse gas emissions, some additional climate change is inevitable regardless of efforts to reduce emissions. Changes are expected to be greatest in the Arctic, with ripple effects throughout the world. For that reason, action is also needed to help Arctic communities and global society reduce vulnerabilities to impacts such as sea-level rise, changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and changes in precipitation patterns.
The SWIPA 2017 Summary for Policymakers includes recommended action steps to reduce future climate change and its impacts on Arctic countries and nations throughout the world. These will be presented to the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Arctic States and representatives of Arctic Indigenous Peoples’ organisations at the Arctic Council meeting in Fairbanks, Alaska, on May 11, 2017.
