Ministers from governments across Africa including Nigeria have renewed their call for a strong and universal climate change agreement with increased flows of funds, including through market and finance opportunities, sufficient to fulfil Africa’s development aspirations.

With countries set to approve a new climate change agreement under the UN in Paris in December, African ministers stressed the region’s readiness and requirement for accelerated private and public financing of low-carbon development. Africa, with its vulnerable populations and vast potential, has perhaps the most to lose from climate change and the most to gain from an effective climate change agreement.

“I agree with Ministers that the last 10 years in the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism is a very valuable asset and that market mechanisms can play a significant role in raising the level of ambition, and supporting climate action,” said Ms. Hakima El Haite, Delegate Minister in charge of Environment of Morocco.

“In these last eight months before Paris, the focus must shift from restating negotiating positions to finding common ground solutions,” said UNFCCC Deputy Executive Secretary Richard Kinley at a day-long ministerial segment at the Africa Carbon Forum 2015 hosted by the Kingdom of Morocco.

“All countries have something to gain from the Paris agreement and it is in everyone’s interests to reach a strong conclusion as soon as possible this year. If Heads of State come to Paris, it must be to adopt an agreement that is robust and ready for them.”

Clean Energy to Unlock African Sustainable Development Potential

The African Carbon Forum 2015 focused on programmes to unleash private sector finance, such as through the Clean Development Mechanism, and scale up other forms of climate finance to strengthen the sustainable development of African countries.

According to the International Energy Agency Africa Energy Outlook 2014, 625 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, about two-thirds of the population, are without secure access to electricity. Some 730 million people in the region still rely on cooking mostly with wood, harming health and destroying vital forest cover.

“The coming months provide African countries with a significant opportunity to align their contributions to the Paris climate agreement with their own long-term sustainable development priorities,” said Mr. Kinley.

Countries are busy detailing their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), which they will submit as their contribution to climate action under the Paris agreement. INDCs for 35 countries have been submitted to date. On April 1, Gabon became the first African country to submit an INDC.

Climate Finance and a Strong CDM Are Key to Success

Two clear messages emerged from participants at the African Carbon Forum. First, linking climate finance to results is essential to stimulate greater funding for both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Second, developing countries, including Africa, need tools like the Clean Development Mechanism if they are to successfully shift to a low-carbon emitting development path. Paris provides the continent with a unique opportunity to anchor carbon markets in the long-term climate agenda in line with scaling up climate action and sustainable development based on their national priorities.

A consistent theme during the Forum was the need to preserve and improve the CDM beyond 2020 as a tool for providing continued climate finance and technology to developing countries, especially in Africa. This would capitalise on the capacity and infrastructure already built up by countries and stakeholders. It is widely expected that this will be one of the issues
to be resolved in Paris.

Participants particularly highlighted the usefulness of the CDM’s established rules in measuring, reporting and verifying results and its possible role to help define and clarify the content of INDCs. The workshop also concluded that African countries could look at how best to link and leverage finance through the Green Climate Fund at the same time as increasing use of the CDM.

The Forum noted that the INDCs provide Africa with an ideal vehicle through which public policy developments can be transparently displayed by countries to shift toward a low-carbon and sustainable development path.

What the Forum organisers said about climate change and development in
Africa

“Throughout this African Carbon Forum, I have sensed the extraordinary will of the continent to act, and to use the tools that are functioning and at their disposal now, such as the Clean Development Mechanism. I share the sentiment expressed by many participants here, that it is time to support Africa’s dynamism in particular by exploring how the GCF can channel climate finance for the implementation of CDM projects in Africa, and finally unleash the continent’s mitigation potential. With the Paris agreement in mind, I trust that African countries will reflect this reality in their INDCs.” John Kilani, Director, Sustainable Development Mechanisms programme, UNFCCC

“The African Carbon Forum 2015 has clearly demonstrated the engagement and commitment by countries in the region to contribute to a balanced and fair outcome at the COP in Paris. Countries are preparing their INDCs, and presentations at the Forum indicate that these will have both ambition and at the same time send clear signals of the need to balance adaptation and mitigation aspects within a broader green economy development framework.” John Christensen, Director, United Nations Environment Programme DTU Partnership

“Here’s what participants at the Forum are saying: a clear and fair global climate architecture, which can protect the more vulnerable regions, such as Africa, needs to be a part of the Paris narrative. Participants are demonstrating a very high level of commitment to helping the Paris process hear Africa’s voice in getting climate policies right.” Neeraj Prasad, Manager, Climate Change Group, World Bank Group

“As we move towards the goal of a global climate change agreement in Paris in December, the 7th Africa Carbon Forum reinforced the need to have adequate, predictable, sustainable climate finance resources  to address Africa’s challenges in transitioning to low carbon development, smart agriculture, and sustainable urban development ­ key topics at this year’s
ACF. These areas should be at the core of Africa’s development priorities and how they are integrated into the countries’ INDCs will help determine the successful implementation of INDCs beyond Paris. We all know current climate financial flows are currently insufficient to meet all of Africa’s climate change challenges, but it will be critical for African countries to
demonstrate the ability to effectively deploy those resources that are available to help contribute to the global climate change goals.” Kurt Lonsway, Manager, Environment and Climate Change Division, African Development Bank

“As we’ve heard over the past couple of days, there is a great opportunity for the private sector to invest in a low carbon future for Africa, using market forces to bring innovative technologies so that the continent can develop in a sustainable way. The Paris agreement can help facilitate this by setting the right parameters for business to invest, including agreeing
rules and guidelines for carbon markets.” Dirk Forrister, President and CEO of International Emissions Trading Association

This year’s Africa Carbon Forum attracted over 600 participants of 53 countries, including 23 ministers or senior officials, policymakers, project developers and investors, and built on the success of last year’s forum in Windhoek, Namibia. Discussions centered on international and
national policies and operational issues related to carbon markets, mechanisms and finance.

The Forum is organised under the umbrella of the Nairobi Framework by the UNFCCC, United Nations Environment Programme along with the UNEP-DTU Partnership, World Bank, African Development Bank and the International Emissions Trading Association.

The Nairobi Framework was launched in 2006 by then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to assist developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, to improve their level of participation in the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism.

The popular media and the public often confuse a number of concepts and issues related to climate change. I was at a technical review meeting late in 2014 when a “scientist” insisted that climate change is the same as global warming. Despite some clarifications and even protests from many other colleagues, our scientist stood his ground. I kept my cool to avoid unnecessary rancour that may end up exposing the ignorance of many scientists and practitioners that claim to be climate change experts after attending one or two conferences or trainings. But I am not surprised.

The inter-disciplinary and multi-sectoral nature of the global discourse on climate change has aroused so much interest that everyone jumped on its discussion train to start linking all aspects of human existence and development to climate change. It is, therefore, not surprising that some so-called “experts” started to warn the country that the type of tsunami that affected Asia in 2011 and hurricane Sandy that battered New York in 2012, both of which are indicative of the amplified effects of global warming, could occur in Nigeria.

A tsunami is a series of ocean waves that sends surges of water, sometimes reaching heights of over 30 meters, onto land. Tsunamis are typically caused by large, undersea earthquakes at tectonic plate boundaries. About 80 percent of tsunamis happen within the Pacific Ocean’s geologically active area, where tectonic shifts make volcanoes and earthquakes common.

With proper understanding of the scientific bases for these extreme events, it would have been very clear that the probabilities of their occurrences in Nigeria are more or less zero. The danger, therefore, is that if terminologies are not too clear to “scientists” or the media, how will they be able to convince policy makers to take appropriate actions in recognition of the danger which climate change poses and the imperative for a climate resilient society?  To help the general public and further enlighten many scientists and practitioners of diverse backgrounds that are interested in the climate change discourse, some key climate change-related terminologies are explained in the following (Main Sources: IPCCC AR5, 2014; UN-Habitat, 2011):

Adaptation: initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects.

Adaptive capacity: the whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective adaptation measures. Adaptive capacity is the opposite of vulnerability (see below).

Adaptation deficit: the lack of adaptive capacity to deal with the problems associated with climate variability. For example, many cities in Nigeria already show adaptive deficits within the current range of climate variability without regard to any future climate change impacts. In many of our urban centres, the main problem is the lack of provision for infrastructure (all-weather roads, piped water supplies, sewers, drains, electricity, etc.) and the lack of capacity to address this. Once they are not available, they cannot be climate proofed, a critical element of adaptation.

Climate: average of many weather events over of a span of time, normally 30 years.

Climate change: a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural processes, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing.

Extreme (weather or climate) events: the initial and consequent physical phenomena including some (e.g. flooding) that may have human components to causation other than that related to the climate (e.g. land use or land cover change). Extreme events are often described by their expected frequency of recurrence. A “25-year event” has a statisti­cal expectation of occurring once in 25 years, on aver­age. The longer the recurrence period, the more severe the event will be.

Global warming: the documented increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near-surface air and sea surface temperatures based on records since the 1880s and the projected continuation of these increasing temperatures.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs): those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Key GHGs include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and aerosols.

Greenhouse effect: the process by which GHGs trap heat within the surface–troposphere system. Analogous to the glass walls in a greenhouse which reduce airflow and increase the temperature of the air inside, the Earth’s greenhouse effect warms the surface of the planet. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature at earth’s surface would be below the freezing point of water (i.e. greenhouse effect is necessary for human existence; it is its amplified nature that is not desirous).

Mitigation: technological change and substitution that reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. Mitigation means implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks.

Ozone depletion: the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage between global warming and ozone depletion, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

Resilience: the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.

Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.

Weather: state of the atmosphere at any given time or place.

The next article in the series will highlight the scientific basis for the current concern on climate change in a simplified manner.

By Prof. Emmanuel Oladipo (Climate Change Specialist and Adjunct Professor, Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Nigeria. Email: olukayode_oladipo@yahoo.co.uk)

I have always emphasised that COP 21 in Paris is not only a platform for negotiation but an opportunity to pursue the road to low carbon economy. Some of the parties, while addressing the reduction of emission, are also planning how to manage and consistently look at the risk adjusted investment into a new fora of sustainability activities and programmes. It is a shift that requires new skills, knowledge and commitment.

We have seen how Switzerland has indicated its commitment to projects locally and globally with implications for emission control.

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, speaking at the Atlantic Council on March 12 2015 in Washington, urged nations to set ambitious goals to curb greenhouse gases and warned climate change deniers that gambling with the Earth’s future was a risky business as “there is no Plan B.” He went further to say: “If we fail, future generations will not forgive those who ignored this moment no matter their reasoning.”

He further said that for decades now the science has been screaming at us. Future generations will judge our efforts not just a policy failure but as a collective, moral failure of historic consequences.”

Kerry underscored the importance of clean energy as “one of the greatest economic opportunities of all time. The global energy market of the future is poised to be the largest market the world has ever known. We are talking about $6 trillion market with four to five billon users today that will grow to nine million users over the next few decades.”

He predicted that by 2035 investment in the energy sector is expected to reach about $17 trillion more than the entire current GDP of China. The United States which accounts for 12 percent of global emissions recently announced that it plans to reduce them by 26-28 percent in 2005.

There are many activities going on globally to mobilise for “solutions we need to succeed” and the economic argument for developing alternative energy is gaining grounds.

It is clear that a new way of transforming investments into the path of sustainability will involve investment research, education, strategy, communication, change of investment goals, reliable data, information evaluating and analysing emerging solutions on various investments.

There is need to have competent, skilled, well trained professionals in sustainable development in various fields – project management, banking, investment analysis, estate management, health and engineering, among others, with a view to see how combating global warming can be factored into their different development projects.

The different areas of negotiation – capacity building, finance, technology, loss and damage, and others – have one thing or another to do with climate and development. The issue of adaptation and mitigation projects require understanding of various terminology and language different from the traditional language we are familiar with. The new concept of sustainable investment takes into congnisance the three tripod of economic, social and environmental factors in analysing investments.

We humbly suggest that a strong platform is provided to market climate resilient investment opportunities in Nigeria as one of the major activities and programmes at COP 21 in Paris. This should be a collective programme to have both the private and public sectors operators showcasing investment opportunities in Nigeria. The benefits of this are tremendous and it provides a good opportunity for wealth creation, business development, job opportunities, knowledge sharing and enhancement of the standard of living of Nigerians through increased investment in GDP and  wider investment portfolio.

By Prince Lekan Fadina (Executive Director, Centre for Investment, Sustainable Development, Management and Environment (CISME). (He is a member of the Nigeria Negotiation Team, Africa Group of Negotiators and member, AGN Finance Co-ordination Committee). Website: www.cismenigeria.com. Email: cismevision@gmail.com