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Making Nigeria climate resilient (5): How vulnerable is she?

Michael Simire
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Making Nigeria climate resilient (5): How vulnerable is she?

Vulnerability is “the extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, and is a function of the magnitude of climate change, the sensitivity of the systems to changes in climate and the ability of the systems to adapt to changes in climate” (IPCC, 2001).

Prof. Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo
Prof. Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo

Others have extended this idea by relating the concept to three overlapping properties: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure refers to the extent of climate stress to which a particular unit or system is exposed. Sensitivity to climate change relates to how readily a particular system such as agriculture would react (usually negatively) to changes associated with climate. Adaptive capacity is a function of several parameters, which may be summarized under wealth, access to technology and infrastructures.

Nigeria’s economy and other sectors of development are very vulnerable to climate change. The 2014 World Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) published by the UK-based risk company, Maplecroft, classifies Nigeria as being of high risk. In terms of the relative vulnerability of Nigeria among the countries of the world, the analysis shows that the country is one of the ten most vulnerable countries in the world.

A recently nationally commissioned study used the Indicator Method, to determine the spatial changes in the vulnerability of Nigeria on geopolitical basis. The study focused on three principal determinants of vulnerability – adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure. The indicators used in the study were a combinations of many variables ranging from physical (e.g. rainfall, temperature, changes in sea level, relief, soil conditions etc.) to socio-economic (e.g. education, assets, income, access to information, services and technology, poverty, etc.), and they were sufficiently broad in relevance to allow a meaningful assessment of vulnerability of different parts of the country to climate change. Vulnerability was defined as a function of potential impact less the adaptive capacity.

On geo-political zonal basis, the study shows that the north-eastern zone has the least adaptive capacity, followed by the north-western zone. The south-western sub-region has highest adaptive capacity, followed by the southeast. The pattern is a general reflection of both the geographical extent and level of socio-economic development of the country, and implies that special attention must be given to improving the factors of adaptive capacity in the north-eastern and north-western zones of the country.

On the spatial variation of the country’s sensitivity to climate change, the study shows that the north central has the lowest sensitivity, while the south-south has the highest. The relatively higher value of sensitivity in the north-western zone compared with the other two zones in the north is associated with presence of large human-made water bodies that are used for irrigation in the zone.

The relative exposure of the various parts of Nigeria to climate change shows that the southwest is the least exposed while the most exposed are the northeast and southeast zones. Clearly, exposure to the challenges of climate change is not a purely regional phenomenon in terms of north/south divide. Rather, it is a wholly national phenomenon, which implies that exposure factors should be addressed in the various parts of the country. For example, while rainfall decline and, therefore water supply, is an exposure issue in the northern part while land management to prevent water loss through infiltration is crucial in the south east.

The spatial content for the relative vulnerability of the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria shows that there is a general south-north divide, but the south west is relatively the least vulnerable of the zones. The three zones in the north show higher vulnerability when compared with those in the south, a reflection of the higher rainfall and certain better socio-economic development in the south. The south-south shows highest relative variability of the three zones in the south, reflecting the challenges of coastal flooding and erosion as well as petroleum exploration and exploitation in that part of the country.

On the spatial pattern of vulnerabilities along the Nigerian coast, the report shows that the Niger delta region has the largest spread and depth of vulnerability of the country’s marine and coastal environment.

In summary, the southwest is relatively less vulnerable than most other parts of the country. On the other hand, the northeast is most vulnerable. Understanding these spatial vulnerabilities is crucial to analyzing climate change impact and putting in place adaptation actions imperative to shaping climate-resilient development in Nigeria, as well as determining the cost implication of tackling the crisis.

In general, the impacts of climate change in Nigeria will vary in extent, severity and intensity, but the exact degree still remains uncertain. Of course these impacts are not going to be felt overnight, and one could therefore argue that the structure of the economy will gradually change during the actual time period before the impacts are likely to be fully realized. Consequently, it is important to note that these potential impacts only serve as rough indications of what may likely happen if the current trends in temperature and rainfall changes persist, and if no adaptation and other adjustments take place. They serve as general guidelines for future policy directions and the imperative to take immediate action without waiting for the potential calamitous effects of climate change on the economy and livelihoods of the people to take place.

At the national level, a detailed and in-depth research into the vulnerability of Nigeria’s economy is yet to be undertaken. However, desk-reviewed evidences show that all sectors of Nigeria’s socio-economic development and the natural ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. The impacts will vary in extent, severity and intensity, but the exact degree still remains uncertain. Some known impacts of climate change on various sectors of Nigeria’s economy and development will constitute part of future write ups on how to make Nigeria climate resilient for sustainable human development.

(People who are interested in additional technical details can read the report of the Federal Ministry of Environment), 2010: National Environmental, Economic and Development Study (NEEDS) for Climate Change in Nigeria. National Report Submitted to the UNFCCC in which the author is the major contributor, as well as IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press)

By Prof. Emmanuel Oladipo (Climate Change Specialist and Adjunct Professor, Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Nigeria. Email: olukayode_oladipo@yahoo.co.uk)

PACJA releases handbook on INDCs

Michael Simire
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PACJA releases handbook on INDCs

The Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA) on Friday, May 1st, 2015 officially released a publication aimed at enhancing country activities ahead of the much-vaunted COP 21 in Paris later in the year.

Mithika Mwenda, PACJA Secretary-General. Photo credit: twitter.com
Mithika Mwenda, PACJA Secretary-General. Photo credit: twitter.com

Titled: “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs): A Handbook for Practitioners,” the publication, says PACJA officials in a press statement, is vital as many countries are in the process of submitting or formulating their INDCs pledges. According to them, INDCs put forward by countries will form a key input to the negotiations leading towards the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Programmes Manager at PACJA, Samson Ogallah, stated: “The INDCs handbook also comes at a time when most countries missed the 31 March 2015 as encouraged by The Lima Call for Action. Only 35 countries, including the only African country Gabon, have formally submitted their INDCs to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Mexico, Norway, the Russian Federation, Switzerland and the United States are amongst countries that have already communicated their INDCs.

“A second implicit submission deadline has now been set for 01 October 2015, after which submissions are still allowed, but will not be included in the UNFCCC’s synthesis report, which will be made available to Parties in time for the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris, December 2015.”

He pointed out that the Alliance’s strategic role in influencing policy from the national to the regional and international level remains the driving force for its focus on INDCs.

“With over 50 African countries expected to submit their INDCs to the Secretariat of UNFCCC and the 15th Ordinary Session of AMCEN’s Decision in Cairo on INDCs, the role of African civil society in actively participating and contributing to the process from the national to the regional level cannot be over-emphasised.

“For African civil society, INDCs must be a total package that takes into account all the elements of adaptation, mitigation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building and means of implementation. In a nutshell, for the continent and other developing countries, INDCs should include the international support needed as well as their proposed domestic actions for both mitigation and adaptation and also for loss and damage, in a way that reinforces an equitable global deal, and reflects the demands and needs of people,” Ogallah emphasised.

Founded in 2008 and with a membership of more than 1,000 organisations and networks across Africa, PACJA is a continental coalition of civil society organisations from diverse backgrounds in Africa. It aims at unifying and coordinating isolated civil society efforts on climate change advocacy in Africa, so as to ensure that pro-poor and people-centred response measures are given attention as governments in Africa seek to mainstream climate change into national poverty reduction and sustainable development strategies and actions.

Yari, Kadiri to grace Lagos varsity urban knowledge forum

Michael Simire
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Yari, Kadiri to grace Lagos varsity urban knowledge forum

Country Manager, United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), Mallam Kabir Yari, along with Chair, African Planning Association, Alhaji Waheed Kadiri, have been confirmed as speakers at a forum designed to beget sustainable urban development in Nigeria as well as examine the role of African cities in the emerging urban agendas.

Mallam Kabir Yari
Mallam Kabir Yari

Titled “Promoting Durable Urban Knowledge Institutions in Africa by activating the African Urban Research Initiative Project,” the workshop is scheduled to hold on Thursday, May 7, 2015 at the University of Lagos, Akoka.

Organised by the African Urban Research Initiative (AURI) and Lagos Urban Research Network (LURNet), the lecture will address from an African/Nigerian perspective:

  • how to conceptualise and respond to urban informality,
  • how to conceptualise and promote urban resilience,
  • how to conceptualise and respond to urban spatial inequality, and
  • how to do so through co-production methods.

It will also provide a forum for:

  • identifying the most critical and important issues at country level, which could then be consolidated to help develop regional policy,
  • documenting the views of key local and national constituencies (including government, private sector and civil society groups) in the Nigerian urban development and environmental management sectors sector in activities leading up to Habitat III, and
  • generating localised awareness and support of AURI activities while giving momentum to key AURI arguments and positions that will serve an input towards Africities and Habitat III events.

“As an AURI Partner, LURNet is pleased to organise this in-country workshop on the place of African cities in the emerging global development agendas. We are hopeful that the narrative on Nigerian urbanisation will be well articulated and advanced as we work towards achieving inclusive and sustainable cities,” submitted Dr Taibat Lawanson, who heads the Department of Urban & Regional Planning at the University of Lagos.

A multi-disciplinary urban laboratory domiciled at the Department, LURNet was conceived for the promotion of theoretical and applied research in urban planning and development and serves as a real-time incubator for research on the Lagos Urban Area and Nigeria in its broad context.

According to Lawanson, LURNet provides an avenue for interdisciplinary research and intellectual discourse on Urban and Regional Planning and Development, with a view to promoting sustainable and acceptable urban development.

“It organises the annual Urban Dialogue Public Lecture where public figures speak of city dynamics from their own perspectives as well as several exhibitions highlighting contemporary issues such as climate change, city branding, place making and reconciling old and new cities,” she added.

In 2011 the African Centre for Cities (based at the University of Cape Town, South Africa) received a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation to pursue a project to scale-up applied urban research and practice in Africa. The African Urban Research Initiative (AURI) was a response to the need to support existing and future homegrown applied research centres to inform and enhance urban policy actors and networks in African countries towards the development of responsive urban policy and management.

With support from the Cities Alliance, Mistra Urban Futures Programme and the Ford Foundation, a series of workshops have been held in various African cities to develop this narrative. The first workshop, held in Addis Ababa in March 2013, was to raise the debate and foster action amongst key research and donor stakeholders in the urban field, whilst establishing a shared understanding of the scope and implications for research and knowledge management of the urban transition in Africa.

The second meeting was held in Nairobi in February 2014, with the theme “Institutional models of co-production in the African city.” A third AURI workshop meeting was held in November 2014, in Cape Town with a theme “Urban research for reducing urban poverty.”

The meetings highlighted the fact that AURI has an important advocacy role to play in providing the basis for developing compelling research and advocacy agenda around African urbanisation and urban poverty reduction, targeting key events such as the 2015 Africities meeting as well as  the 2016 Habitat III conference.

However, it was also recognised that AURI needs to develop its positions and arguments in a very limited timeframe. These arguments need to be regional in their scope, yet also acknowledge the diversity of urban processes and forms across the African continent. As such the necessity for regional workshops are imperative. It is towards achieving this objective vis-a-vis the situation in Nigeria that the workshop at the University of Lagos is being organised by LURNet. The workshop is sponsored by AURI.

Why filthy environments will continue to obstruct elimination of Malaria

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Why filthy environments will continue to obstruct elimination of Malaria

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is calling on countries to close the gaps in prevention and treatment to defeat malaria. But when people are allowed to live in filthy, polluted environments as seen in this video, one will begin to question the possibility of Nigeria ever eradicating malaria.

‘How to make mining environmentally viable’

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‘How to make mining environmentally viable’

Mining has been a massive driver for development, as seen in developed countries. Now that Nigeria is diversifying from her mono economy of petroleum, mining amongst other sectors should be looked at. Therefore, plans to manage the sector throughout its life cycle should also be put in place. Old mine practice that brought about adverse environmental degradation, without attention to managing social impacts of mining, should be avoided. Mining impacts must be managed judiciously “from cradle to grave” to accomplish sustainable development outcomes. Thus, mining will be all encompassing viable economically, environmentally and socially.

Participants at the forum
Participants at the forum

This message was passed by Mrs. Maryam Olayeni, the Executive Director of Conservative Environmental Growth and Development Centre (CEGDEC), at a knowledge-sharing workshop held recently at Igun-Ijesha gold mining community in Atakumosa West Local Government in Osun State. The workshop was based on experience gained from the Australian African Awards on Managing Social and Environmental Impacts of mining, a seven weeks intensive training which basically incorporated social issues in environmental development.

Examples were drawn from good practices around the world, especially from Australia and Madagascar. Artisanal mining should equally adopt; as seen in the large scale mining sector, the practice of mine planning to reduce impact, environmental and risk management systems, environmental protection, water use management and impact; and mined land rehabilitation. To socially manage mining impacts on the other hand, social responsibility in mining, community engagement, stakeholders’ agreement processes, gender and mining; and mining related health issues should be addressed.

CEGDEC in its plight of mitigating the adverse effects of mining advised the community to be proactive in developing their local capacity. The community should be prepared to sustain livelihood after the life of a mine, as mining operation is terminal. Emphasis was laid on being self-reliant, by facilitating the promotion of agriculture, culture and local livelihoods. The community largely represented by farmers and miners were also admonished to incorporate community involvement and participation, respect for cultural heritage, consideration for gender inclusion in mining, and corporate social performance as means of gaining social license.

In his speech, the DG/CEO of National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) duly represented by its Osun State Field Officer, Mr. Maike Shukwunweizu Ahmad, admonished the miners to always be law abiding.

His words: “Illegal mining is totally unacceptable as it gives no cognisance to the environment and the people. Sustainable mining begins with following regulations and standards strictly. The issue of health and safety on mines cannot be underestimated. NESREA is within reach should there be need to contact on issues of non-compliance.”

The Atakumosa West Local Government was equally applauded for the development in terms of newly constructed tarred road to the community, though mining is for the purpose of development, said Olayeni, adding that more emphasis on a positive economic environment in the mining region should be laid.

In his response, the Onigun of Igun I, Oba Sunday Oladipupo Ajilore thanked the CEGDEC and NESREA teams for enlightening Igun-Ijesha Township.

“We are welcoming investors in our rich gold town,” he stated.

Established on the basis of reducing the human footprints on the environment, CEGDEC contributes to building community values and practices and promotes sustainable development in campaigning for a give-back to the environment through research, advocacy, education/awareness creation, capacity building, economic empowerment and environmental management.

Fresh global commitments for energy action coming

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Fresh global commitments for energy action coming

The UN energy forum is expected to advance innovative, on-the-ground solutions to fight both energy poverty and climate change in lead-up to 2015 UN Summit and Climate Conference

R&B artist, philanthropist and founder of Akon Lighting Africa, Akon, will join other dignitaries to grace the event. Photo credit: waploaded.com
R&B artist, philanthropist and founder of Akon Lighting Africa, Akon, will join other dignitaries to grace the event. Photo credit: waploaded.com

At the second annual United Nations Sustainable Energy For All Forum scheduled for 18th to 21st May 2015, leaders from government, business and civil society will announce new commitments and drive action to end energy poverty and fight climate change.

They will present ways to catalyse finance and investment at the scale required to meet the targets of the UN Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative on energy access, energy efficiency and renewable energy. Over 1,000 practitioners will share and advance innovative energy solutions. The Forum will build momentum on energy issues ahead of both the September UN Summit to adopt the post-2015 development agenda, and the December Climate Conference in Paris, and contribute to shaping the direction of energy policy for the crucial decades to come.

The event will be graced by dignitaries like: Heads of State and over 40 ministers of energy and finance; New York City Mayor, Bill De Blasio; R&B artist and philanthropist Akon, founder of Akon Lighting Africa; over 50 global leaders, including private sector CEOs, heads of UN agencies, development banks and other international organisations; leaders from broader civil society, including the research and investment communities; and, over 1,000 energy innovators and practitioners from both the developing and the developed world, including women’s and youth groups active on energy issues.

The first day will feature multi-stakeholder sessions along with dozens of sessions organised by energy innovators to share and advance sustainable energy solutions, including for financing, renewable energy – both on and off grid, access to modern cooking fuels, cookstoves and lighting, energy efficiency initiatives, climate action and reducing gas flaring. Also on policy innovations, energy for women’s and children’s health, and growing the sustainable energy movement.

Highlight of the next day’s event holds at the NASDAQ Times Square, where the SE4All Advisory Board will ring the opening bell at NASDAQ. The following day on the 20th will feature the Global Energy Ministerial: Policy Dialogue with opening statements by President of the UN General Assembly Sam Kutesa, UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson and Heads of State attending.

Similarly, events such as high-level panels on catalysing a trillion dollar investment, ending energy poverty, doubling energy efficiency and renewable energy, by 2030 will follow. The will also be special panels on energy for women’s and children’s health; BRICS panel on investing in clean energy and expanding energy access; strengthening global cooperation and governance on energy.

The fourth and closing day (21st May) holds the Global Energy Ministerial: Actions and Commitments with opening statement by Helen Clark, Chair, UN Development Group and Administrator, UNDP.

This will be followed by announcements of actions and commitments towards sustainable energy for all, including on finance, energy access, energy efficiency and renewables; as well as special panel on monitoring and tracking for results. Kandeh Yumkella, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and CEO of Sustainable Energy for All, will give the closing statement.

Launched by the UN Secretary-General in 2011, the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, a multi-stakeholder partnership, aims to achieve three inter-linked global targets: to ensure universal access to modern energy services, to double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency and to double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix, all by 2030. At the UN, governments have already identified sustainable energy as one of the new generation of sustainable development goals that are expected to be adopted in September.

According to the UN, one out of five people lives without access to electricity, and nearly 40 per cent of the world’s population rely on wood, coal, charcoal or animal waste to cook and heat their homes, leading to over four million deaths each year, mostly women and children, from the effects of indoor smoke. The international organisation believes that how to address this energy poverty while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions and tackling climate change is a crucial global challenge.

Maternal and Child Mortality Lecture in Lagos

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Maternal and Child Mortality Lecture in Lagos

Dr Leke Pitan is the keynote speaker at the 3rd annual public health management lecture by the Chartered Institute of Environmental and Public Health Management of Nigeria.
The Special Advisor for Africa International Hospital Federation spoke on ‘Investing in Reduced Maternal and Child Mortality for sustainable Development: What are the issues, challenges and Options.

He stressed that an important but often neglected aspect of Nigeria’s healthcare delivery system is the role of traditional medical practitioners: ‘The hallmark of any successful policy is the incorporation and integration of the people’s cultural values into its implementation in order to get their buy-in, and ensure their participation.’

‘Showcase accomplishment of tree planting initiative beyond Lagos’

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‘Showcase accomplishment of tree planting initiative beyond Lagos’

The Lagos State government has been asked to continue to showcase the benefits of its tree planting initiative, as a climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, to other parts of the country. Under the initiative, the state has within the past seven years planted over five million trees.

Governor Babatunde Fashola (left) with Environment Commissioner, Tunji Bello, planting a tree to flag-off the 2012 Tree Planting Campaign. Photo credit: strategicindexblogspot.com
Governor Babatunde Fashola (left) with Environment Commissioner, Tunji Bello, planting a tree to flag-off the 2012 Tree Planting Campaign. Photo credit: strategicindexblogspot.com

This formed one of the numerous resolutions at the 7th Lagos State Summit on Climate Change held last week. It had “Seven Years of Climate Change Governance in Lagos State, Celebrating Success Stories, Reviewing Challenges and Setting Future Agenda” as its theme.

Participants at the three-day conference described tree planting is an effective mitigation measure for reducing the impact of climate change, pointing out that urban reforestation, in particular, is a laudable approach to improving carbon sequestration of urban areas and mitigating climate change-induced urban heat island.

While observing that climate proofing agriculture and its resilience to variations in climate is critical for sustainable food security in the state, delegates submitted in a communique released at the close of the summit that the state should likewise look into the feasibility of enriching its remaining forest areas in the context of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) to create financial value for carbon stored in forest, address the drivers of deforestation, enhance its carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation, and provide additional means of livelihoods for the concerned communities.

Some other recommendations in the communique are listed to include:

  • developing a climate change information management system in which all research outputs are catalogued and widely disseminated on a regular basis;
  • putting technology in place to reduce GHG emissions from waste;
  • encouraging youths and getting them involved in the development of climate change mitigation technology;
  • pursuing a strategic alignment with the private corporate organisations in the fight against climate change and promote research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDD&D), particularly in the development of technological response to the challenge.
  • putting into place a positive innovative, policy environment and strengthen existing regulatory framework, including tax incentives and governance mechanisms which will promote public and private investment in climate change mitigation projects;
  • creating a Lagos State Green Fund (inspired by the Lekki Free Trade Zone) to leverage funding from all sources – state, federal, bilateral and multilateral financial institutions – to promote green employment generation, investment, and innovation;
  • establishing a Lagos Green Eco-Innovation Forum that will be mandated to spearhead efforts to promote and intensify Nigeria’s (and African) efforts to meet climate change targets and goals through entrepreneurship and philanthropy.
  • creating a capacity building and mentorship training programme to assist associations to have access to funding opportunities, and to intensify links and networks with institutions that have expertise in climate change mitigation;
  • explore the feasibility of facilitating a national summit on climate change, in collaboration with the Federal Government, to share its best mitigation and adaptation practices and encourage other states to join the national fight against climate change;
  • continue to work closely with civil society organisations in the fight against climate change;
  • continue to support the African Coastal Cities Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning Project towards making Lagos more resilient;
  • involving relevant stakeholders on a continuous basis in the execution of the Eko Atlantic City Project to ensure sustainability;
  • ensure continuity in the implementation of the model city plan within the existing legal framework to further climate proof Lagos; and,
  • explore the possibilities of developing a framework for the construction of energy efficient houses for both low and middle income earning residents of the state.

While declaring the summit open, Governor Babatunde Fashola noted that since 2009 the climate change summit has been a principal vehicle for attracting required attention to environmental challenges. He stressed the need for mankind to reflect on the threat posed by the continuous exponential growth of the world population to the sustainable exploitation and use of natural resources.

Fashola highlighted achievements made by government in the past seven years in mitigating the effects of climate change, adding that most of government’s actions emerged from the outcomes of the summits.

Besides the planting of five million trees, he listed the outcomes as:

  • the Eko Atlantic City Project as an adaptation measures against climate change-induced sea level rise;
  • improved Waste Management and Transportation;
  • the Lagos, Akute and Alausa Independent Power Projects which are gas fired and which lead to the decommissioning of over four hundred diesel fuelled electricity generators;
  • creation of over one hundred Parks and Gardens across the State; and,
  • establishment of the Lagos State Parks and Garden Agency (LASPARK).

Making Nigeria climate resilient (4): Past, current and future climate changes

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Making Nigeria climate resilient (4): Past, current and future climate changes

As stated previously, the climate goes through different cycles of variable duration, alternating between cold and hot periods. Historical evidences of long-term changes in the climate of Nigeria are scanty. However, we can use proxy data from regional sources for Africa in general and the Lake Chad in particular to provide some evidence of long-term past changes in the climate of the country. It may be difficult for many to believe, but evidences point to the fact that Africa has gone through different climate periods in the past.

Prof. Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo
Prof. Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo

About 20,000 years ago, the continent was almost a desert, but a rainy period ensued between 7,000 and 14,000 years ago. It lead to the eradication of most arid areas and enabled the development of agriculture and cattle breeding in the present day Western Sahara. The existence of a gigantic Lake Chad, which covered over 340,000 km2 (the size of Côte d’Ivoire today) and with a maximum depth of 160m, about 6,000 years ago attests to these historical fluctuations. This implies that much of the current dry region of the northeastern part of Nigeria was very wet about 6000 years ago.

The climate in Africa today is almost the same as 2,000 years ago, with more arid or more humid phases. The era between the 10th and 15th centuries was a rainy period during which living conditions were far more favourable than they are today. However, since the early 19th century, the continent has been struck by an arid period that lasted a few decades, which continued till the 20th century. Today, most of the African continent is tropical, except for the Mediterranean region and South Africa.

The history of the Lake Chad variability can be used to provide useful information of past climate changes in Nigeria, at least for the northern part of the country. There are evidences to indicate that the Lake completely disappeared several times in the past. The Lake Chad actually dried out around year 1450, 1550, 1750, 1850 and 1900, all of which will indicate extremely dry conditions for the northern part of Nigeria in these periods. Hence, recent concerns about the Lake Chad Region must be put in its historical perspectives.

Concerning recent trends, instrumental records show evidences of marked variability in the recent mean temperature and rainfall conditions in Nigeria. Over the last six decades, there has been a general increase in temperature throughout the country, particularly since the 1980s. The warming revealed a change of 1.01°C in the mean conditions for the period 1951 to 2005. There has also been a steadily increasing trend in maximum temperature in the country with values ranging from 31 to 33OC, with marked regional variations between the north and the south. In the north, maximum temperature values lie between 32 to 35°C while in the south, values lie between 30 to 33OC. Minimum temperature has generally increased slightly faster than the maximum temperature resulting into smaller temperature range.

The mean annual variability and trend of rainfall over Nigeria in the last six decades depicts the existence of a number of inter-annual fluctuations that have been responsible for dry and wet years or extreme climate events such as droughts and floods in many parts of the country and at different times. The period 1970 to 1990 was dry except between 1978 to 1980 and coincided with the Sahelian droughts of early 1970s and 1980s. From 1990s to present, rainfall has been above normal. However, despite this general recovery in rainfall since 1993, the general trends show slight decrease in rainfall especially since 2001 and particularly in the extreme northern part, even though some locations have been experiencing some extreme rainfall events in the very recent years.

Using climate models, many researchers have simulated future climate projections for Nigeria. Their scenarios suggest that there will be an increase in temperature of approximately 0.02OC to 0.04OC per year from 2000 until 2100 over the entire country. Higher temperature increase is expected over the inland regions compared with the coastal regions, with the level of the change increasing with latitude. Heat waves (when the maximum temperature is greater than 35OC for three days or more consecutively) are projected to occur more frequently over the entire country in the future. The future projections predict a wetter climate in the south (at least 0.2 mm/day south of 8°N) and a drier climate in the north.

Based on the above analysis and projections, we can say that climate change will magnify natural disasters’ severity in terms of intensity and frequency in Nigeria, but the nature and severity of the changes must be properly diagnosed. Increasing frequency of extreme weather events evident in terms of floods and drought in Nigeria is attributed to observed changes in the climate of the country. Major floods (e.g. 2012), with return period of 100 years, now takes place every 10 or 20 years. As more intense rainstorms are projected to hit many parts of Nigeria because of climate change, there will simply be more water and catastrophic floods will become regular events. On the other hand, extreme droughts, linked to climate change, have become regular features in the northern part of the country. How vulnerable Nigeria is or will be to these changes will be highlighted in the next article.

(People who are interested in additional technical details can read (1) Abiodun, B. J., Salami, A. T. & Tadross, M. (2011). Developing Climate Change Scenarios: Biophysical Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Nigeria. Ibadan, Nigeria: Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST); (2) Afiesimama, E. A., O. F. Ati, J. O. Olokor, M. A. Ijioma, M. A. C. Chendo and A. Ayansina (2010): National Climate Change Scenarios Development. Draft Technical Report for Nigeria’s Second National Communication; (3) Cervigni, R., Riccardo, V., and Monia, S, eds. 2013. Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank; (4) Karmalkar, A., McSweeney, C., New, M and Lizcano, G., 2010: The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Nigeria. Available at http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk; and (5) OECD (2007): Atlas on Regional Integration in West Africa: Climate and Climate Change)

By Prof. Emmanuel Oladipo (Climate Change Specialist and Adjunct Professor, Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Nigeria. Email: olukayode_oladipo@yahoo.co.uk)

Lekan Fadina: Road to Paris 2015 (18)

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Lekan Fadina: Road to Paris 2015 (18)

The French government has in the last three years worked vigorously to put in place a strategy for action towards emission reduction, clean energy and efficient energy. ln Poland in 2013, France got the right to host COP 21 in Paris in 2015. In August 2014 the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Laurent Fabius, outlined his country’s expectations for the 21st Session of the Conference of Parties (COP 21) to the UNFCCC and 11th Session of the Conference of Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol from 30th November to 11th December, 2015.

Prince Lekan Fadina
Prince Lekan Fadina

The COP 21 will be focussing on the adoption of a legally binding agreement. The Parties are expected to have pledged their commitment as it involves reduction in greenhouse gases, developing countries’ carbon pricing, among other issues, The French Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, Segolene Royal, stressed the importance of the energy transition law.

The French President, Francois Hollande, in his foreign policy speech indicated plans to announce his country’s strategy for action ahead of the Paris Climate Conference in September 2014 at the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in New York. He announced the intention of his country to move towards the path of low carbon and emission reduction.

France, in following this path, has contributed $1 billion to the Green Climate Fund and is supporting the World Bank initiative on carbon pricing, saying that “pollution must have a cost if we want investment to move towards clean and efficient energy”. The French are putting so much into it because of the prestige, the high class and the excellence associated with the French. For the first time in over 20 years of UN negotiations, the COP 21 aims to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate change with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 degrees C.

France will play a leading role in hosting this conference. COP 21 will be one of the largest international conferences ever held in France. The conference is expected to attract close to 50,000 participants including 25,000 official delegates from government, business, international organisations, UN agencies, civil society and media.

France will be playing a leading role to ensure agreement and to facilitate the search for consensus by the United Nations as well as within the European Union which has a major role in the climate negotiations.

Paris as the venue of the conference is expected to provide the right atmosphere and conditions. Paris-Le Bourget is said to be the best logistically the most suitable in terms of hosting facilities and accessibility which are crucial to the success of the conference.

The French appears to agree with the Report of the IPCC 5th Assessment that “Human influence on the climate system is clear and continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.”

France like her counterparts in the EU mission is set to fulfil the emission reduction target as a collective responsibility. It also set out to ensure market mechanism and advancing the cause of businesses to climate resilient projects and investments.

The French recently announced the intention to spend over 200 million euros to support African countries in climate-related projects and investments. This is part of the commitment to the road towards low carbon economy and culture of green investments.

 

Development issues towards the Paris conference
The Adaptation Fund Board of the UNFCCC recently met and some of the issues at 
the  meeting was the election of Nigeria’s Peter Tarfa, Deputy Director, Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment, as Vice Chairman of the Board’s Project and Programme Review Committee. This is an important position at UNFCCC system, and it comes at a time that the world is focusing its attention on the COP 21 and the follow-up action on adaptation projects and other sustainable activities. We congratulate Nigeria for this honour and our dear Peter whose deep knowledge and disposition to matters are commendable.

There is also the issue of the relationship between the Adaptation Board and Fund and the Green Climate Fund, among others.

The United States has submitted its contributions to COP 21. The French government in a statement by Laurent Fabius on 31st March 2015 said: “This contribution confirms the objective of reducing American greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28per cent compared to 2005 levels by 2025 announced at the US-China Summit on November 12, 2014. This objective confirms the commitment of the United States under Barrack Obama’s presidency to fight against climate disruption. It is consistent with the more ambitious long-term objective of reducing emissions by 80 percent or more by 2050.

The United States contributions as the world’s second largest emitter represents a further step forward in the process of preparing for COP 21.”

The need for early submission of countries was also stressed by Laurent Fabius when he said that “all countries to make public their national contributions as soon as possible in accordance with the decision taken at COP 19 in Warsaw and confirmed in Lima.

It is evident that there is a paradigm shift in financing and management of development programmes. In this regard we must put in place mechanisms that will enable us to develop capacity to manage emerging environmental and social risks associated with investment and projects that countries like France put in place for countries like Nigeria.

We continue to follow up on the activities of the Committee for COP 21 and we wish the members every success. We all as shareholders look forward to their effort to ensure that Nigeria plays a critical role, be at the COP early, and maximise all opportunities in the interest of our people.
The road to Paris continues to show that there is a lot to be done and everyone involved in this process needs to add value to the process. Nigeria has a lot to do to ensure that we provide the leadership especially for Africa and we appeal to the in-coming administration to give support in all areas to ensure that Nigeria is at the centre of activities and in turn can assist other African countries. Nigeria deserves to be the barometer for the other developing countries and, with the contributions of all of us and the natural flair of Nigerians turning things around for the better, the sky is the limit.

By Prince Lekan Fadina (Executive Director, Centre for Investment, Sustainable Development, Management and Environment (CISME). (He is a member of the Nigeria Negotiation Team, Africa Group of Negotiators and member, AGN Finance Co-ordination Committee). Website: www.cismenigeria.com. Email: cismevision@gmail.com. Twitter: @cismevision

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