The payout will be released to Malawi as soon as the Government’s plan on how the payout will be used to respond to those affected by drought – known as the Final Implementation Plan – is approved by ARC

The African Risk Capacity Insurance Company Limited (ARC Ltd) is processing an insurance payout of approximately $8.1 million to the Government of Malawi to support its response to the drought which resulted from the poor 2015/16 agricultural season.

Making this disclosure in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Wednesday November 16, 2016, the Minister of Finance, Economic Planning and Development for Malawi, Goodall Gondwe, said: “Malawi welcomes the payout from ARC Ltd given the significant challenges in securing financing to support the millions of affected households in the country.”

The payout will be released to Malawi as soon as the Government’s plan on how the payout will be used to respond to those affected by drought – known as the Final Implementation Plan – is approved by ARC. This is standard practice for ARC payouts, and is expected to take place by the end of November.

ARC Ltd issues insurance policies to its African Member governments; any payout thereof is based on results from its drought risk model, the Africa RiskView. In close consultation with ARC Ltd, the model is customised for and by each country to reflect the country’s historical drought risk profile and current farming practices.

Malawi bought a parametric drought insurance policy from ARC Ltd for the 2015/16 agricultural season. The policy did not initially trigger a payout, because the model indicated a low number of people affected by the drought. However, the Government’s estimate of the impacted population in Malawi was much higher, suggesting a discrepancy in the results of the model.

ARC investigated the discrepancy through extensive technical work. It first examined the performance of the model as it was originally customised by Malawi, and found that the model had performed as expected given its parameters and the satellite-based rainfall data used. The satellite data was in line with Malawi’s ground-based rainfall data.

Subsequently, ARC conducted extensive fieldwork and household surveys in partnership with Malawian technical experts, including researchers from the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR).

This work revealed that farmers had switched to a greater extent to growing a different type of crop than that assumed in the model. Farmers shifted in recent years to planting maize with a 90-day growing period, compared to the maize variety with a growing period of 120-140 days as assumed in the customisation of Malawi’s model. The rainfall pattern in 2015/16 was particularly unfavourable to the shorter cycle maize, such that correcting this crop assumption in the model resulted in a very different modelled outcome.

In fact, when ARC re-customised the Africa RiskView to correct this crop assumption, it resulted in the model outcome providing a reasonable representation of the situation on the ground. This in turn triggered a payout under the revised policy to the Government of Malawi.

ARC’s work confirmed that the Africa RiskView technical engine is a robust modelling platform. However, having to correct key data in the case of Malawi emphasises how critical it is to make appropriate and realistic assumptions based on the best-available and current data when customising the model.

The Chair of ARC Ltd Board, Dr. Lars Thunell stated: “The case of Malawi has showed that heightened attention is necessary in validating national input data provided for the model. Any model’s ability to represent reality depends on the accuracy of starting assumptions and data. Based on the re-customisation using a more accurate assumption on reference crop type, an amended insurance policy was issued to the Government of Malawi and a payout has been triggered.”

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Chair of the African Risk Capacity Agency Board, further stated: “ARC was founded by African Governments with the objective of providing them with the tools and capacity to better manage natural disaster risks. ARC Ltd stands by to support Malawi and to continue to help the country develop a comprehensive and effective drought risk management strategy.”

Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River State in South-South Nigeria has said that the time has come for Nigeria and other African countries to take full control of their natural resources, including forest reserves, and utilise them in a manner that drives development as well create wealth.

He made the submission Marrakech, Morocco on Tuesday, 17 November 2016 while fielding questions from media executives shortly after the Nigerian delegation to the UN climate change talks (COP22)  unveiled the country’s plan of actions towards implementing the Paris Climate Agreement.

Ayade, who was defending the state’s super highway project that has attracted local and international criticism, observed that environmental issues in Africa are politicised to the detriment of the continent’s development, even while worse environmental abuses go on in other climes.

“We cannot continue to be poor, in the midst of the plenty that we have got. We drove in from Casablanca to Marrakech, to the left and right; where are the trees? When you go to Mexico, as you go to Mexico City to Tabasco, go from left to right, where are the trees? Nigeria can’t continue to dramatise everything and convert everything to politics. The Super Highway only takes 85 metres with 35 metres and somebody goes to the press and says we are de-bushing 20 kilometres. It is most ungodly. Normally, this is a time that no state is doing any developmental project, so for me to develop a six-lane super highway on 35 meters’ corridor across 261 kilometres, it calls for celebration not condemnation. It calls for appreciation and not cheap blackmail,” he told local and foreign media at the African Pavilion of the COP22 arena in Marrakech.

The governor said he would go on with the project despite protests and widespread condemnation and by both local and international environmental activists, as well as pressures on the Nigerian government to stop the destruction of the country’s remaining rain forest in cross River State, for the construction of a 260km super highway project.

Few days after President Mohammadu Buhari signed the Paris climate agreement while attending the United Nations General Assembly, over 253,000 signatures were reportedly collected from 185 affected forest dependent communities of Cross River State and the international communities to that effect which were presented to the president.

Ayade stressed that the super highway project is for developmental purpose and for wealth creation, for not only the state but also Nigeria at large. He assured that measures have been put in place to cushion the impact on the environment.

“The super highway that Cross River State intends to build from Calabar to Obudu is actually a super highway that focuses on the wellbeing of the people. There is nowhere on earth that you can stop development for environment. They must work together. I am a Professor of Environmental Science. By my background, my focus is the protection of the environment.

“The Super Highway has no intention; neither is it designed to negatively impact on the environment. It is only natural that, in the course of construction, some places with be de-bushed. And that is why there is an environmental management to tackle right of a comprehensive environmental management to mitigate the impact of the activity. The Cross River Super Highway is taking down less than 18,000 trees. Interestingly, the Cross River State has an aggressive plan to plant 500 million trees in this place and over a million have been planted already. So, an aggressive planting programme is ongoing”.

“The wrong impression is that the state government intends to take 10 kilometres on both sides of the super highway, as government property. That is not the intention, but perhaps that is the wrong impression we are getting. The real truth is that once you are developing a six-lane highway; as it going on, you have slums just developing along the corridors”.

“Our aggressive programme as government is that we are moving Cross River State from third world to first world in four years. So, by this super highway, I am taking the Atlantic coast closer to northern Nigeria, so that they can also have a direct access to the water front. And I think that Africa must come to terms with the reality. We might come here to Marrakech, and be like we were in Paris. By continuing to talk so much about the environment, but environmental issues are global and solutions are local.

“Cross River State remains the only state that has human rights law. Cross River State is the only state with Green Police, arresting and policing and prosecuting who are deforesting for sale. Cross River state is the only one with an aggressive tree planting programme with a green carnival, with everything to sustain the forest.

“How can a state that has 68 percent of the entire forest cover of Nigeria, how can a state that has a planting programme, how can a state that has a full Ministry of Climate Change, how can a state with a dedicated Urban Afforestation Programme, be so careless not to know that import of an EIA, as an environmental management tool, for the super highway? And I think what is happening has gone political. Unfortunately, that is the problem of Africa and Nigeria. The gospel truth is that is the only way that Nigeria can also get a second gateway into the country.”

Cross River State also used the occasion to unveil plans to compensate the host communities.

By Innocent Onoh

President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria on Tuesday, November 15 2016 in Marrakech declared the resolve of the government to ensure that policies put in place to address climate change will make the country emerge as one of the world’s best examples of how reducing emissions can benefit the environment and the economy.

In his statement at the 22nd Session of the Conference of Parties (COP22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) taking place the Moroccan city, President Buhari outlined the plan of the administration towards aligning with the global objectives on climate change and ensuring inclusive growth and environmental sustainability.

He said: “In Nigeria, we are launching a strategic plan for the implementation of our Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and we have equally embraced the issuance of green bonds as an innovative means and alternative way of raising climate finance both locally and internationally. We cannot afford to wait until 2020. We are already making far reaching changes to all sectors of our economy including through:

• Substantially increasing the use of climate smart agriculture
• Diversification of our energy mix through renewable and efficient gas power
• Creating a more efficient, cleaner and lower-carbon oil and gas sector especially through a gas to energy programme
• Initiating the implementation of the clean-up of the Ogoni-Land in the Niger-Delta region.

President Buhari also stated Nigeria’s ambitious but achievable commitment to ‘green growth’.

“We have reflected our determination for green growth in my country’s ambitious Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. We have also announced our plans to reduce emissions by 20% by the year 2030, with the intention of raising this target to 45%, with the support of the international community. This is one of Africa’s most ambitious Intended Nationally Determined Contributions – covering all emissions from all parts of the economy.”

President Buhari also affirmed that Nigeria has no choice but to key into the global action on climate change.

“In Nigeria for instance, the impact is being felt by the more than 2.1 million people displaced by devastating floods that the country has continued to suffer since 2012. If not addressed by 2050, the human and financial cost would be colossal. For us in Nigeria, the larger dimension of the challenge goes beyond emission rights. Survival rights are also at stake.”

He reminded the gathering of the agreement at the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA71) that climate threats and security threats go hand in hand and called for concerted efforts on them.

His words: “The Lake Chad Basin for example, has shrunk to a mere 10% of its original size, and this has seriously affected the livelihood of over 5 million people and contributed to the growth of insecurity in the region, including the emergence of Boko Haram as a terrorist group. Hence the urgent need to resuscitate Lake Chad. In this regard, I seize this opportunity to express gratitude and appreciation to those who have responded to our call and to encourage other well-meaning partners to join in our efforts to revive the Lake Chad Basin,” President Buhari said.
He expressed the readiness of Nigeria to join hands for the change that the whole world is working towards.

“We, therefore, stand ready to engage in meaningful partnerships to tackle the menace, and call on our neighbors and developing partners to fulfill their financial obligations in support of efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change,” the President declared.
He also called on world leaders, “to recommit ourselves to the achievement of the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement that we collectively signed in 2015 for the benefit of this and future generations. Nigeria has submitted its instrument of ratification for the new global agenda on climate change. We urge others to do the same in order to make the world a safe place.”

A coalition of over 375 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) on Monday in Marrakech, Morocco delivered a letter to global leaders with an urgent new demand for climate action: no new fossil fuel development.

Building off of new research showing that the carbon embedded in existing fossil fuel production, if allowed to run its course, would take us beyond the globally agreed goals of limiting warming to well below 2˚C and pursuing efforts to limit to 1.5˚C, the letter calls on world leaders to “put an immediate halt to new fossil fuel development and pursue a just transition to renewable energy with a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry.”

The show of global resistance comes at a critical time after the results of the U.S. election. The letter delivery comes the day before a day of distributed solidarity actions around the U.S. and the world to oppose the Dakota Access pipeline.

Organisations from dozens of countries came together to show that the climate movement will not be deterred in their fight to oppose new dirty infrastructure and keep fossil fuels in the ground.

Letter signatories gathered at the UN climate negotiations in Morocco to deliver the letter to global leaders in an artistic action within the climate negotiations conference centre, where a press conference ensued.

“Our research has demonstrated that if the world is going to live up to the Paris Agreement, there is no room in the atmosphere for any new fossil fuel development. The only way to avoid either dangerous climate change, or an abrupt loss of jobs and investment, is to begin a managed decline of fossil fuel production and a just transition to clean energy. This letter shows the massive global movement that has woken up to this reality. World leaders would be wise to heed this call,” said Greg Muttitt, Senior Advisor with Oil Change International.

“The geophysics of climate stabilisation is clear in that carbon-dioxide emissions have to be phased out to zero to stay within a limited carbon budget. There are various way of doing this, but from a precautionary principle one would try to limit our future reliance on uncertain technologies – and the best way to do that is to increase action to get those emissions down – across all sectors, but beginning with the power sector – and particularly coal,” said Joeri Rogelj, Research Scholar at the Energy Programme of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

“If the Paris agreement is going to have any relevance, then we need to freeze all new fossil fuel projects and ensure a just transition to a world powered by renewable energy for all. Communities at the frontlines of climate change have been fighting for this for years with escalating risks to their lives and livelihoods. The only way forward is for governments to choose to be on the right side of history and enact the calls of millions worldwide,” said Nicole Oliveira, 350.org.

“Coal is already in a structural decline in key countries like China. Money being chanelled into building new coal power plant risks being stranded there. And around the world, renewable energy, such as wind and solar, are not only capable of meeting new power demands, but it’s also starting to replace dirty fossil fuels. Meanwhile, millions of people in countries China, India, as well as Europe and the US have had enough of their health and their environment being harmed by the burning of fossil fuels. They are calling for leaders to clear the way for clean and accessible energy systems. We will be the generation that ends fossil fuels,” added Li Yan, Deputy Programme Director, Greenpeace East Asia.

The impact of extreme natural disasters is equivalent to a global $520 billion loss in annual consumption, and forces some 26 million people into poverty each year, a new report from the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) reveals.

“Severe climate shocks threaten to roll back decades of progress against poverty,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “Storms, floods, and droughts have dire human and economic consequences, with poor people often paying the heaviest price. Building resilience to disasters not only makes economic sense, it is a moral imperative.”

The report, titled: “Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters,” warns that the combined human and economic impacts of extreme weather on poverty are far more devastating than previously understood.

In all of the 117 countries studied, the effect on well-being, measured in terms of lost consumption, is found to be larger than asset losses. Because disaster losses disproportionately affect poor people, who have a limited ability to cope with them, the report estimates that impact on well-being in these countries is equivalent to consumption losses of about $520 billion a year. This outstrips all other estimates by as much as 60 per cent.

With the climate summit, COP22, underway in Marrakech, the report’s findings underscore the urgency for climate-smart policies that better protect the most vulnerable. Poor people are typically more exposed to natural hazards, losing more as a share of their wealth and are often unable to draw on support from family, friends, financial systems, or governments.

“Unbreakable” uses a new method of measuring disaster damages, factoring in the unequal burden of natural disasters on the poor. Myanmar’s 2008 Cyclone Nargis, for example, forced up to half of the country’s poor farmers to sell off assets including land, to relieve the debt burden following the cyclone. Economic and social repercussions of Nargis will be felt for generations.

The report assesses, for the first time, the benefits of resilience-building interventions in the countries studied. These include early warning systems, improved access to personal banking, insurance policies, and social protection systems (like cash transfers and public works programs) that could help people better respond to and recover from shocks. It finds that these measures combined would help countries and communities save $100 billion a year and reduce the overall impact of disasters on well-being by 20 percent.

“Countries are enduring a growing number of unexpected shocks as a result of climate change,” said Stephane Hallegatte, a GFDRR lead economist, who led preparation of the report. “Poor people need social and financial protection from disasters that cannot be avoided. With risk policies in place that we know to be effective, we have the opportunity to prevent millions of people from falling into poverty.”

Efforts to build poor people’s resilience are already gaining ground, the report shows. For example, Kenya’s social protection system provided additional resources to vulnerable farmers well before the 2015 drought, helping them prepare for and mitigate its impacts. And in Pakistan, after record-breaking floods in 2010, the government created a rapid-response cash grant programme that supported recovery efforts of an estimated eight million people, lifting many from near-certain poverty.

Building resilience is key to meeting the World Bank Group’s twin goals of ending global poverty and boosting shared prosperity.