“Even at a little over 1.0°C warming, India is being battered by the worst climate extremes – it is clear that the situation at 1.5°C is going to worsen. The new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has served us a final warning that we must get our act together – now and quickly,” says Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), in response to the release of the Panel’s latest study.

The IPCC, the biggest scientific body feeding climate science to policy-makers, released on Monday, October 8, 2018 its Special Report on impacts of global warming at 1.5°C. The report documents glaring evidence of the devastating impacts of climate change on the poor and on developing countries.

Says Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general of CSE and head of its climate change unit: “The report makes it clear that the impact of 1.5°C warming is greater than what was anticipated earlier. Accordingly, the world would witness greater sea level rise, increased precipitation and higher frequency of droughts and floods, hotter days and heatwaves, more intense tropical cyclones, and increased ocean acidification and salinity. Countries like India, with large populations dependent on the agricultural and fishery sectors, would be highly impacted.”

While a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures will be precarious, a 2°C rise would be catastrophic. The report points out that the risk transition from 1.5°C to 2°C is very high and that the effects at 2°C will be more devastating than what IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report had indicated. Coastal nations and agricultural economies like India would be the worst affected. Decline in crop yields, unprecedented climate extremes and increased susceptibility could push poverty by several million by 2050.

Considering the grim warning of the IPCC Report, CSE has appealed to the world to focus exclusively on limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C, which is the upper limit of the temperature goal mentioned under Paris Agreement.

Says Bhushan: “The world cannot afford a warming of 2°C above the pre-industrial era. A 2°C warmer world will devastate economies and ecosystems and push hundreds of millions of people back into poverty. The goal of climate change now must be firmly fixed to 1.5°C to give the communities and nations a fighting chance to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. India must take the lead in creating a global coalition in this endeavor.”

The report also makes it clear that the current level of climate ambition, as set out under the Paris Agreement, will lead to disastrous effects on the planet as it is not in line with limiting warming to even 2.0°C. With inadequate climate efforts, global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. If global emissions continue as per the commitments made under Paris Agreement, the carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that the world can emit) for 1.5°C warming will be exhausted by 2030. In order to limit warming at 1.5°C, the world will have to reduce CO2 emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 from the 2010 levels and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

“Though it will be very difficult in the current global economic system to limit warming to 1.5°C, but it is not impossible. This will require acting on all fronts to rapidly reduce emissions by 2030. Without an active participation of the US, this will be impossible. In totality, how the rest of the world handles the climate rogue behavior of the Trump administration will decide whether the world meets the 1.5°C goal or not,” adds Bhushan.

By refusing to endorse the findings of the IPCC’s 1.5°C Report, the US has again given a clear signal that it would continue with its climate regressive agenda, which includes obstructing the work of the UNFCCC and promoting fossil fuels like coal and gas.

The way ahead

“Considering the urgency to rapidly decarbonise, the world needs a ‘Plan B’, as the Plan A – the Paris Agreement – will push the world towards catastrophic warming. India must take the lead in forming a global coalition for a 1.5°C world to save poor and vulnerable populations across the world including its own,” adds Bhushan.

“The focus must now be on how the world can build a coalition to support the massive transformation required to achieve the 1.5°C target. The developed countries must take the lead by rapidly de-carbonising their economies as well as by reducing consumption. The developing countries will have to pursue low-carbon pathways more vigorously and should limit the addition of fossil fuel assets,” adds Sunita Narain.

CSE has recommended the following urgent action to limit warming to 1.5°C:

• Keeping global warming within 1.5°C is very difficult — still the world must set its goal to limit warming to 1.5°C and not 2.0°C: There will be an inclination among countries to reject the 1.5°C target as impractical and instead, keep the focus on 2.0°C. But this would be disastrous for the poor and for developing countries. If the world insists on sticking to the 2.0°C target, in all probability it will overshoot it. However, if the world agrees to keep warming within 1.5°C, it can contain it well within 2.0°C.
• Require a UNFCCC-plus approach: Climate efforts cannot be restrictive to the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. The world needs to think and devise more forums and venues to address climate change.
• Equity is essential and must be re-visited: The Summary for Policy Makers points out that “social justice and equity are core aspects of climate-resilient development pathways that aim to limit global warming to 1.5°C”. The world, however, requires a new formulation of equity in which every country must act now and actively raise its level of ambition. The developed countries must take the lead by rapidly de-carbonising their economies as well as reducing consumption. Developing countries will have to pursue low-carbon pathways more vigorously and should limit addition of fossil fuel assets going ahead.
• Enhancing sinks in natural ecosystems is key to limiting warming to 1.5°C: All pathways to reduce emissions, to keep the warming within 1.5°C require Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in varying degree. Sequestering CO2 in AFOLU sector will require incentivising billions of farmers and forest-dwellers to pursue sustainable practices that enhance carbon sinks. The world must come together to devise a mechanism to do this.
• Acting on all fossil fuels is must: The IPCC report emphasises the need to reduce coal consumption rapidly, though it allows for the use of gas with carbon capture and storage. CSE disagrees with this formulation. The world needs to act on all fossil fuels simultaneously.
• Ultimately, rapid de-carbonisation and reducing consumption levels is the key: The 1.5°C report states that the final energy demand in 2100 will be 20-60 per cent higher relative to the 2014 levels across available 1.5°C scenarios. Addressing this in a sustainable manner implies de-carbonising existing consumption, as well as drastically reducing consumption going forward, especially in the developed world.  In the developing world, the focus must be more on rapid adoption of low carbon growth. A fossil fuel-free energy system and investments in energy efficiency will help grow the economy in most scenarios. Developing countries must seize this opportunity.

Against the backdrop of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C released on Monday, October 8, 2018, countries have been told to immediately intensify climate action and be more ambitious for the future.

Chair of the Least Developed Countries Group, Gebru Jember Endalew, made the submission in a response to the report and the accompanying summary for policy makers.

Endalew said: “The report provides concrete scientific evidence that confirms the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C as opposed to 2°C. Communities across the world are already experiencing the devastating impacts of 1°C global warming. Each fraction of a degree that global temperatures rise is extremely dangerous.

“Limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C means significantly decreased levels of food insecurity, water shortages, destruction of infrastructure, and displacement from sea level rise and other impacts. To the lives and livelihoods of billions, that half a degree is everything.

“The science makes clear that there is an urgent need to accelerate the global response to climate change to avoid exceeding the 1.5°C limit. Governments must increase climate action now and submit more ambitious plans for the future. This includes increasing the level of support to developing countries to enable them to develop and lift their people out of poverty without going down a traditional, unsustainable development pathway.”

On the issue of loss and damage, he commented: “This IPCC report confirms that loss and damage resulting from climate change will only worsen with further warming with much greater losses at 2°C than at 1.5°C. It is particularly vulnerable countries like the least developed countries that are worst affected by the devastating impacts of climate change and bear the greatest cost from the damage it causes, despite contributing the least to the problem. This injustice must be addressed by the international community through the provision of support for dealing with loss and damage.

“The most important message of this IPCC report is that achieving the 1.5°C is necessary, achievable, and urgent. A safer more prosperous future is possible with immediate action to implement transformative change across societies. There is a need to take advantage of the increasing availability of affordable, renewable and efficient energy solutions, rapidly reduce the use of fossil fuels, with coal phased out by mid-century, preserve and restore forests and soils, promote sustainable agriculture and implement other real climate solutions that together can bring about a zero-carbon economy.”

On the implementation guidelines for the Paris Agreement that are due at COP24 in December 2018, he noted: “The IPCC report has made even clearer the need for the Paris Rulebook to properly reflect the breadth of action required by all countries to achieve the Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. Countries must deliver a robust Rulebook that will ensure adequate action is taken to cut emissions, adapt to climate change and address loss and damage, and that support is provided to enable poorer countries to do the same.”

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, the IPCC said in a new assessment. With clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems, limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said on Monday, October 8, 2018.

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC was approved by the IPCC on Saturday in Incheon, Republic of Korea. It will be a key scientific input into the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December, when governments review the Paris Agreement to tackle climate change.

“With more than 6,000 scientific references cited and the dedicated contribution of thousands of expert and government reviewers worldwide, this important report testifies to the breadth and policy relevance of the IPCC,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC.

Ninety-one authors and review editors from 40 countries prepared the IPCC report in response to an invitation from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) when it adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015.

The report’s full name is “Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty”.

“One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes,” said Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I.

The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5ºC compared to 2ºC, or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent) would be lost with 2ºC.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5ºC or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

Limiting global warming would also give people and ecosystems more room to adapt and remain below relevant risk thresholds, added Pörtner. The report also examines pathways available to limit warming to 1.5ºC, what it would take to achieve them and what the consequences could be.

“The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5ºC are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate,” said Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I.

The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching “net zero” around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.

“Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

Allowing the global temperature to temporarily exceed or ‘overshoot’ 1.5ºC would mean a greater reliance on techniques that remove CO2 from the air to return global temperature to below 1.5ºC by 2100. The effectiveness of such techniques are unproven at large scale and some may carry significant risks for sustainable development, the report notes.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being, making it easier to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,” said Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III.

The decisions we make today are critical in ensuring a safe and sustainable world for everyone, both now and in the future, said Debra Roberts, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

“This report gives policymakers and practitioners the information they need to make decisions that tackle climate change while considering local context and people’s needs. The next few years are probably the most important in our history,” she said.

The IPCC is the leading world body for assessing the science related to climate change, its impacts and potential future risks, and possible response options.

The report was prepared under the scientific leadership of all three IPCC working groups. Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of climate change; Working Group II addresses impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and Working Group III deals with the mitigation of climate change.

The Paris Agreement adopted by 195 nations at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in December 2015 included the aim of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change by “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

As part of the decision to adopt the Paris Agreement, the IPCC was invited to produce, in 2018, a Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. The IPCC accepted the invitation, adding that the Special Report would look at these issues in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

“Global Warming of 1.5ºC” is the first in a series of Special Reports to be produced in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Cycle. Next year, the IPCC will release the “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and Climate Change and Land”, which looks at how climate change affects land use.

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents the key findings of the Special Report, based on the assessment of the available scientific, technical and socio-economic literature relevant to global warming of 1.5°C.

The Summary for Policymakers of the Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5ºC” (SR15) is available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ or www.ipcc.ch.

Civil society representatives have been monitoring ongoing talks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in South Korea over the its 1.5°C Report, which observers have tagged a “rescue plan for humanity”.

The activists, from Greenpeace, WWF and Oxfam, operating under the aegis of the Climate Action Network, have highlighted the significance of the discussions underway on the most definitive scientific assessment on climate change by the IPCC on the 1.5°C temperature limit as enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

The report will provide detailed signposts that can guide policymakers on pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The summary of policymakers, currently under negotiations, is expected to be released on Monday, October 8, 2018 and will summarise the nearly 1,000-page full report.

The report comes at a time when the world is witnessing extreme weather events that are causing wide-scale destruction with alarming consequences even at 1°C warming. Every half a degree matters and the current collective climate commitments, which put us on a 3°C warming pathway, are nowhere near scaling down to a safe zone of 1.5°C.

The 1.5°C goal is considered a lifeline for those on the frontlines of impacts and is said to be critical for the protection of fragile ecosystems many of which, according to scientists, will be irreversibly lost even at 2°C warming.

Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director, Greenpeace International, said: “We must remember Parties requested this report in 2015 and they must own it. This IPCC report is set to outline a rescue plan for humanity. It will shine a light on what needs to happen and what we’ll suffer if we fail to act quickly enough.

“Those leaders who stand up, listen to the science and take action will be remembered as the moral authorities of their time. Given the evidence from science, countries must raise their national climate targets in line with a 1.5C pathway.

“We need new climate leadership. This report is not about politics, it is a scientific report and we need leaders guided by science. They really will have nowhere to hide with this evidence.”

She added she was hopeful and inspired by people taking action locally and justice groups such as in the Philippines demanding more from their governments.

Chris Weber, Lead Scientist, WWF Climate and Energy Programme, said: “New science shows that in many ways 1.5°C is the new 2°C in terms of impacts we are seeing and can expect. Delivering on the 1.5°C will require massive transformations in our societies which will only get harder and riskier the longer we wait and fail to increase ambition in the near term.

“The IPCC report will provide detailed signposts for governments and the most important underlying message is that to reach the 1.5°C temperature limit we need rapid and deep decarbonisation by 2050 and preferably by 2040 across sectors and specifically in the energy and land use systems. The difference between feasible and not feasible is in many aspects about political will.”

Raijeli Nicole, Regional Director, Oxfam in the Pacific, said: “The countries most vulnerable to climate change are boldly leading and we only have to see the declarations from the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Fiji on the sidelines of the recent One Planet Summit in New York. We ask that other countries step up ambition.”

Speaking from the Solomon Islands, she added that the IPCC report would be a concrete scientific input into the Talanoa Dialogue, which is at its heart about an open and honest conversation and to talk about the barriers.

“This is not aspirational talk, it (the Talanoa Dialogue) must consider the report must serve as a tool that we can all work with collectively.

“Also, it is not just the energy sector we need to focus on but all sectors (maritime, aviation, land) and how they can be managed with interactions on adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development to keep us in the safe zone of limiting warming to 1.5°C,” she added.

While the speakers could not comment on the content of the report under discussions and the political dynamics at play in the negotiations, they all reiterated that politics cannot come in the way of science and every half a degree matters in this race against time with climate change.