In Spain the battle for the Spanish La Liga title continued at the weekend as Barcelona got a comfortable victory on the road to beat Las Palmas 4-1.
Neymar scored a hat-trick against Las Palmas
Neymar got a hat-trick, scoring in the 25th, 67th, and 71st minutes of play, ensuring that reigning champions Barcelona remain top of the league table.
Title rival Real Madrid beat Sevilla with the same scoreline. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a brace (23rd, 78th) that includes his 400th goals for Real Madrid.
In the Bundesliga, there was a nine-goal thriller between Bayern Munich and Leipzig, with the match ending 5-4 in favour of Bayern Munich.
Ancelotti’s men are already champions, but they were in no mood to lose to the new boys of the league. Borussia Dortmund stumbled on the road to drop a point against Augsburg 1-1. Hertha Berlin defeated Darmstadt 2-0, Werder Bremen lost to Hoffenheim 3-5. Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbac played out to a 1-1 draw.
In the Italian Serie A Delafoe late strike ensured that Milan got a point on the road playing a 1-1 draw with Atlanta. Fiorentina three, Lazio two. Inter Milan lost at home to Sassuolo 2-1, a big blow to the Italian side’s Europa League ambition.
Napoli thrashed Torino 5-0, while Roma ensured that they delayed the Juventus party once again. The match at the Stade Olympico ended 3-1 in favor of the Roman team. But Juventus can win the title when they play Pescara at home next weekend.
Farmers and communities in the Northern Savannah Zone of Ghana are being assisted to adopt sustainable land management practices to help reverse land degradation and desertification.
District Crops Officer, Department of Agriculture in the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Dominic Angbangbio (left), with the Head of the the Namong Community, Bawku West District in the Upper East Region, Ghana, during a tour by SAWAP/BRICKS conference participants, on Thursday, May 11, 2017
Land degradation in Ghana – and indeed Africa – is increasingly being recognised as a key development issue because of its impact on the productive capacity of land. In Ghana, rural households are majorly affected because of their dependence on agriculture and other natural resources-dependent activities as sources of livelihoods.
But relief has emerged, thanks to the Sustainable Land and Water Management Project (SLWMP), which is being supported by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the World Bank.
At the 4th Sahel and West Africa Programme in Support of the Great Green Wall Initiative (SAWAP) that held last week in the West African country, officials shed some light on the venture and took participants on a three-day tour of some of the project sites located mostly in the nation’s Upper East Region.
In the Namong Community, Bawku West District in the Upper East Region for example, officials are adopting intergrated water resources and land management practices by:
Compost preparation and utilisation
Earth bonding in order to reduce runoff and maintain soil nutrient
Mixed soya intercropping with maize
District Crops Officer, Department of Agriculture in the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Dominic Angbangbio, said that, amid challenges such as water shortage, the project has introduced maize cropping into the community.
“Maize production is now stable venture in the community, now competing with the production of millet and sorghum. Community members were supported with certified seeds and fertiliser to complement the compost production. Since the intervention, the community now has a rich soil,” said Angbangbio.
On water, he stated: “There is only one surviving borehole in the community. Water shortage has slowed down the intervention, as they go to neighbouring villages to get water, which is required for composting and watering of the trees.”
According to him, the community has scored high because bush burning is now a thing of the past, even as community members have embraced tree planting. He added that villagers are trying to protect and restore a river that has now dried up.
Similarly, the Community Resources Management Areas (CREMA) of Banu and Kunchogu communities highlighted a number of riverine vegetation and livelihood support activities. At Kunchogu, the community operates a shear nut processing plant, where the nuts from the numerous shear trees around are processed. They also operate beehives that produce honey.
The CREMA concept is an innovative natural resource management and landscape-level planning tool for community initiatives. It is developed as an initiative for transferring conservation and management responsibility and authority to rural communities.
At the mountainous Yameriga Community in Talensi District, participants inspected the implementation of subprojects such as stone lining, enrichment planting and natural regeneration.
No fewer than 20 beneficiaries use the “A-frame” device to line the stones along perceived contour lines thereby creating a stone bonding, which prevents the rains from washing away manure and top soil, controls erosion and enriches the vegetation.
A project officer said: “The people are in support of the natural regeneration. We intend putting in place a water system to support their livestock. We have so far planted tree seedlings on up to three hectares of land. This year we aim to plant 1,000 eucalyptus trees.”
Nigeria and 11 other nations of the Sahel and West Africa Programme in Support of the Great Green Wall Initiative (SAWAP) rose from the 4th Conference that held recently in the Ghanaian capital city of Accra with assurances of commitment and collaboration towards ensuring successful delivery of various ongoing development projects, promote food security and work towards the protection of biodiversity in their respective countries.
Three out of the four-member Nigerian delegation to the 4th SAWAP Conference: L-R: Dr Adebayo Thomas, Engr. Ayuba Anda Yalaks, and Mrs Ruth Peters Mshelia
Speaking on behalf of the Nigerian delegation, the Nigeria Erosion and Watershed Management Project (NEWMAP) Communication and Community Mobilisation Specialist, Dr. Adebayo Thomas, acknowledged the SAWAP/BRICKS initiatives. He expressed gratitude to the Federal Government of Nigeria, the World Bank, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) for supporting the implementation of NEWMAP, a sustainable land and water management initiative that aims to reduce vulnerability in targeted watershed areas through efforts at reversing land degradation in the East and desertification in North.
Describing NEWMAP as a success story, Dr Thomas added: “NEWMAP is providing innovative solutions to the age long problem of erosion and watershed degradation in Nigeria. The project combines state-of- the-art designs supported with flexible structures (such as gabions) and nicely complemented by bio-remediation measures. These innovations are anchored on active community participation and ownership. This has resulted in the rehabilitation of 229 hectares of lands (as at April, 2017) and the restoration of livelihoods to over 3,825 poorest (of which 58% are women) Nigerians in targeted watersheds. Direct beneficiaries today stand at 7,312,635 as against the targeted 681,000 by June, 2020.”
The fourth member of the Nigerian delegation to the conference, Engr. Joseph Idoko (right), Mrs Ruth Mshelia (with handbag), and community members, during a tour of one of the SLWMP intervention sites in the Upper East Region of Ghana
Adebayo added that in its four years of implementation the project has been able to salvage 2,460 houses, three churches, four public secondary schools, and 25 major roads from the shackles of looming gullies. He said civil works and land remediation in 21 major sites across seven first mover states of Abia, Anambra, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu and Imo are at 98% completion with 15 of the sites ready for commissioning, while an additional 39 new degraded sites have been approved for intervention across same first mover states.
According to him, “NEWMAP activity of Component 2 successfully installed 200 hydrometric equipment (consisting River Automatic / manual gauging stations, Automatic Flood Early warning systems) across two major hydrological River basins: The Anambra-Imo and Cross River Basins.
“All the success stories have endeared many states to the project. Based on the progress recorded by the initial seven states, in September 2015 additional seven states (Delta, Gombe, Kogi, Kano, Plateau, Oyo and Sokoto) joined the project having met the necessary selection criteria. Presently, the third phase of states that recently joined the project includes Akwa Ibom, Borno, Katsina, Nasarawa, and Niger states; thus making a total number of 19 states in the project,” he said.
All other participating countries presented status reports of their various projects as well as success stories.
The Nigerian team to the conference comprises Joseph Idoko (National Project Engineer), Dr. Adebayo Thomas (Project Communication & Knowledge Management Specialist), Mrs Ruth Peters Mshelia (Livelihood Specialist) and Ayuba Anda Yalaks (Water Resources Specialist).
The 4th Conference of the Sahel and West Africa Programme (SAWAP) in support of the Great Green Wall Initiative as part of the project “Building Resilience through Innovation, Communication and Knowledge Services (BRICKS)” held from May 8 to 13 2017, in Accra, Ghana. It also entailed tour of some project intervention sites in the Upper East Region of Ghana.
The BRICKS is implemented by the Permanent Inter-state Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), which is responsible for coordinating the project; the Observatory of the Sahara and the Sahel (OSS); and the West Africa Bureau of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
The BRICKS Project works with the 12 projects of the Sahel and West Africa Programme (SAWAP) in support of the Great Green Wall Initiative (GGWI) in achieving their goals.
The conference brought together representatives of the 12 beneficiary countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Chad, and Togo) and the programme’s sub-regional and international partner institutions.
Thomas said: “The SAWAP is a good illustration of the nexus between land productivity, food security, and poverty eradication. It is a very good time to discuss and show the results of the SAWAP, not only to the participating countries, but to the whole continent, to the donors, and all our partners.”
A recent United Nations (UN) report on energy-efficiency technologies shows that low-carbon technologies apparently aid clean air, save water and cut land use, and could reduce 25 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions and 17 million tonnes of particulates a year.
Renewable energy: a thermo-solar power plant. Photo credit: World Bank/Dana Smillie
“We are on the right track. We know that cleaning up the air we breathe gives rise to huge benefits to both human and environmental health, and we know, too, that low-carbon energy efficiency technologies can help us reduce damaging climate change,” said Erik Solheim, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in a statement released on Friday, May 12, 2017 on the new report.
At the same time, the UN Environment chief said: “(We are) also clear on the need for greater action on building a circular economy that cuts waste, and on production innovations that could also create new, green jobs.”
Entitled “Green Technology Choices: The Environmental and Resource Implications of Low-Carbon Technologies,” the report, released on Friday at the Vienna Energy Forum, was compiled by a group of eminent experts in natural resource management hosted by UN Environment.
The panel examined eight energy efficiency technologies and 36 sub-technologies across buildings, industry and transportation and provided a global assessment of the benefits, risks and trade-offs encountered when energy efficiency technologies are deployed alongside low-carbon electricity supply technologies.
Among its findings, the report notes that research confirms that demand-side technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as many other environmental impacts. However, the magnitude of those improvements varies widely among technologies and regions.
Indeed, in some cases, say the experts, demand-side technologies may increase resource consumption and even greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is crucial to understand where, when, and with which technology investment should be placed to maximise benefits.
The report compared two scenarios – one for a global temperature rise of 6 degrees Celsius and the other assuming that the global target of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is achieved.
Key findings of the analysis include:
Under the 2-degree scenario, low-carbon energy production and energy efficiency technologies have the potential to cut about 25 billion tonnes a year of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which is about 34 per cent lower than the emissions under business-as-usual.
Under the 2-degree scenario more than 17 million tonnes per year of particulate matter and over 3 billion tonnes of emissions toxic to humans could be avoided through the use of low-carbon energy technologies.
Low-carbon energy technologies could save more than 200 billion cubic metres of water a year and nearly 150,000 square kilometres of land occupation by 2050.
Transformation to low-carbon energy technologies will require over 600 million tonnes of metal resources by 2050 for additional infrastructure and wiring needs.
Succour may be in the offing for slum dwellers in African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, thanks to the Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme, in respect of which $11 million has been secured.
Makoko, a waterfront slum community in Lagos
The Programme is an initiative of the Secretariat of the ACP Group of States, funded by the European Commission and implemented by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). UN-Habitat estimates that an alarming one billion people living in slums worldwide, and if no action is taken – the number of people living in inadequate housing is estimated to grow to more than three billion by 2030.
The announcement was made on Wednesday, May 10, 2017 during the 26th session of the UN-Habitat Governing Council that is discussing opportunities for the effective implementation of the New Urban Agenda, a 20-year plan of action on housing and sustainable urban development.
“I am delighted to celebrate and announce the third round of funding for the global Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme,” said Ambassador Léonard-Emile Ognimba, the Assistant Secretary General of the Secretariat of the ACP Group of States.
He further indicated that “10 million Euros will be used for 50 percent of the ACP countries. Going forward, we would like to see the strengthening of community-led processes, and empowerment of local and national governments to build their financial and technical capacity to tackle the slum challenge.”
The funding covers the years 2017-2021 during which UN-Habitat is expected to leverage the $11 million and bring about the necessary change and transformation to end urban poverty in ACP countries in a sustainable way. The funds are also meant to catalyse public resources through slum upgrading .At the international level, the European Commission is exploring the European Union blending a modality where national level banks and private sector are approached to finance slum upgrading initiatives.
“I can ensure you that UN-Habitat and the Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme are fit for purpose to implement in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the New Urban Agenda. UNHabitat will do its level best to leverage the catalytic funds and bring about the necessary change and transformation to end urban poverty in ACP countries in a sustainable way with a long-term vision,” said Mr. Raf Tuts, the Director of Programme Division, UN-Habitat. National and local authorities are also expected to co-finance the process.
“The City of Dakar and my Ministry have signed contribution agreements totaling $300,000,” stated Diène Farba Sarr, Senegal’s Minister of Urban Renewal, Habitat and Living Environment, while showing his government’s engagement.
Cameroon’s contribution to slum upgrading was also highlighted. “My government provided co-financing of $260,000 for the implementation of tangible initiatives at neighbourhood level,” said M. JeanClaude Mbwentchou as he demonstrated his government’s devotion to utilising public resources to address the challenges of the urban poor. The interventions include provision of sanitation facilities and upgrading of public spaces that include the construction of public bridges in order to enhance access. An additional $200,000 was contributed by partners, added the Minister.
Slums and informal settlements are the physical manifestations of inequalities, according to the UN-Habitat, adding that they stand for exclusion, stigmatisation, gentrification and urban poverty. While the percentage of slum dwellers decreased from 39 percent to 30 percent of the urban population in developing countries between 2000 and 2014 – absolute numbers of slum dwellers continue to grow. As a result, the Programme calls for urgent action to ensure that countries are accountable to children, youth, the olderly, men and women living in slums, and are empowered by global development frameworks to lead a sustainable urban transformation.
On the other hand, slum upgrading is important as it reduced inequalities in the urban context by integrating people living in slums in the broader urban fabric, making cities more prosperous and sustainable. The new funds will enable participating countries bridge the inequalities gap.
While welcoming the announcement of the new fund, Ghana’s Deputy Minister of Local Government and Regional Development, Adjei Kwasi Boateng, stated: “We are very pleased to see the programme launching the 3rd round of funding. This is only possible as the Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme has demonstrated tangible benefits in addressing the challenge of urban poverty.”
With a focus on ending poverty through slum upgrading, the new funds availed will build on the successes of the first and second round of funding. The celebration of additional funding and achievements realised so far gives countries the impetus to do more, especially in view of the huge investment requirements for slum upgrading. Through the Up For Slum Dwellers- Transforming a Billion Lives campaign as the vehicle for delivering change, state and non-state actors will be mobilised to deliver tangible initiatives that improve the living standards of slum dwellers. Access to improved housing, safety, security of tenure, community space, basic services, will be ensured for slum dwellers, particularly for women and youth.
Participating countries will also take part in knowledge sharing platforms involving the global south and north, further building their capacity to develop slum upgrading solutions. The Programme, through the “Up For Slum Dwellers – Transforming a Billion Lives” campaign, will collaborate with existing networks such as that of Mayors, to advocate the improvement of the living conditions of slum dwellers as well as facilitate networking, dissemination of information and exchange of ideas.
The Participatory Slum Upgrading Programme aims to expand its outreach from the existing 35 ACP countries to cover 79.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) Regional Director for Africa, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, on Saturday, May 13, 2017 visited Kinshasa, capital of DR Congo, to discuss with national authorities and partners ways to mount a rapid, effective and coherent response in order to stop the ongoing Ebola outbreak.
Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organisation (WHO) Regional Director for Africa. Photo credit: pbs.twimg.com
The visit follows notification by the DRC Government of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Likati health zone, Bas Uele Province, in the northern part of the country bordering Central African Republic. The Likati health zone is around 1400 kilometers from the capital. As of today, 11 suspected cases including three deaths have been reported.
Speaking at the meeting, Dr Moeti said: “I am here to assure the government of DR Congo that in collaboration with the UN system and other partners, we will work together to respond to this outbreak. WHO has already mobilised technical experts to be deployed on the ground and is ready to provide the leadership and technical expertise required to mount a coordinated and effective response. I encourage to public to work with the health authorities and take the necessary preventive measures to protect their health.”
On Wednesday, May 10 2017, a multidisciplinary team led by the Ministry of Health (MoH) and supported by WHO, under the new WHO Emergency Programme, and partners, was deployed to the Likati health zone, Bas Uele Province to conduct an in-depth field investigation. The health zone is situated in the remote, isolated and hard-to-reach northern part of the country, with limited transport and communication networks – factors that all impeded transmission of information about the suspected outbreak. Currently it takes about two to three days to reach the epicentre from Kinshasa.
The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) has been activated to provide additional support if required. Reinforcement of epidemiological surveillance, contact tracing, case management, and community engagement are under way.
“We are grateful to WHO and other partners for the swift support in carrying out investigations that led to the confirmation of this outbreak,” said Dr. Oly Ilunga Kalenga, the Minister of Health of DR Congo. “A strong multi-sectoral response, better coordination, public awareness, community engagement and adequate resources will be critical in our efforts to stop the outbreak,” he added.
The first case occurred on April 22 in a 45-year-old male. He was transported by taxi to hospital and was dead on arrival. The driver also fell ill and later died. A third person who cared for the first case also became ill and has subsequently died. At present, 25 contacts of the second patient who died are being followed. Of the cases and deaths, one has been tested PCR-positive for Ebola.
This is the eighth outbreak of Ebola virus disease since its discovery in 1976 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. On November 20, 2014, in line with WHO recommendations, the Ministry of Health of DRC and WHO declared the end of the Ebola Virus disease outbreak that started on August 24, 2014 and resulted in a total of 38 laboratory confirmed cases and 28 probable cases including 49 deaths in Boende, Equateur province.
2014: 66 cases of EVD including 49 deaths diagnosed initially in Equateur province (Watsi Kengo, Lokolia, Boende, and Boende Muke)
2012: 62 cases including 34 deaths Orientale Province -Isiro (Bundibugyo virus)
2008-2009: 32 cases including 15 deaths in Kasaï-Occidental (Zaire virus)
2007: 264 cases including 187 deaths in Kasaï-Occidental (Zaire virus)
1995: 317 cases including 245 deaths, in Kikwit, Bandundu Province
1977: one case with one death in Tandala, Equateur Province
1976: 318 cases including 280 deaths in Yambuku – (Zaire virus)
According to the WHO, he full extent of the 2017 outbreak is still not yet clear, adding that extensive investigation and risk assessments are being conducted and the findings will be communicated accordingly. WHO adds that it does not recommend any restriction of travel and trade to DRC based on the currently available information.
Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Sani Dangote, has lauded the new government policy on tomatoes, saying it will encourage increased local production and self-sufficiency.
The tomatoes scarcity in markets once forced Nigeria to import the item from Cameroon and Ghana. Photo credit: authorityngr.com
Speaking on the heels of the new policy aimed at reducing the N52 billion spent on the annual importation of 150,000 metric tons of tomato concentrate through the neighboring countries into Nigeria, Dangote said the nation has enough arable land to cultivate and meet local demand for tomatoes.
He noted that tomato remains one of the easiest crops to cultivate in all the geopolitical zones, as the nation is blessed with arable land suitable for crop cultivation.
Dangote opined that, prior to the new policy, farmers lose about 50 per cent of their tomato harvest as there are not enough processing plants to buy the fresh produce and turn them into concentrate.
These heavy losses, according to him, discourage the farmers from cultivating more tomatoes.
The new policy, he explained, would encourage farmers to cultivate more tomatoes, earn more money as they sell to processing plants and with decrease in importation of concentrate, the nation saves huge sums in foreign exchange.
For those clamouring for an extension in the time given for the implantation, Dangote said since 2010 the government has been discussing with stakeholders on the need for backward integration in the tomato industry.
He explained that plants for production of tomato paste comes in different sizes ranging from small to medium and large scale, therefore giving producers various options of investment in the industry.
He emphasised that Nigeria, given her resources and abundant arable land, has no business importing tomato concentrate.
He said: “We are working for production of more tomatoes through an out-growers scheme, but this will not feasible if there are no processing plants to take the excess products off the hands of the farmers. This policy is for every stakeholder. The Vice President visited our farms and plants to see things for himself and he was very impressed. Government stance and policy should be commended.”
The new policy is aimed at promoting local production of fresh tomato fruit required for fresh fruit consumption and processing, and also increase local production of tomato concentrate and reduces post-harvest losses. The policy was expected to create at least 60,000 additional jobs in fresh fruits production and processing.
The policy restricts the importation of tomato concentrates to the seaports to address the abuse of the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme, stops the importation of tomatoes preserved otherwise by vinegar or acetic acid and increases the tariff on tomato concentrate to 50 per cent with an additional levy of $1,500 per metric ton.
Nigeria imports an average of 150,000 metric tons of tomato concentrate per annum valued at $170 million mostly due to inadequacy in capacity to produce tomato concentrate. Current demand for fresh tomato fruits is estimated at about 2.45 million metric tons per annum while the country produces only about 1.8 million metric tonnes per annum.
Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change.
An image of Earth taken by a NASA camera on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite. Photo credit: AFP /NASA/HANDOUT)
The report comes as climate agreement participants are watching the United States – where the Trump administration is debating whether to withdraw from the Paris accord – and as scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are working on a special report about the 1.5-degree goal (equivalent to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and the consequences of overshooting it.
That IPCC’s upcoming special report and the increasing urgency about minimising global warming were one impetus for the study, according to co-author Benjamin Henley, a research fellow at the University of Melbourne in Australia. “We are working on a number of scientific avenues to help inform that report,” he told The Washington Post.
The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world.
During cool, or “negative,” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The system is similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the major difference being that phases of the IPO tend to last much longer – sometimes a decade or more. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.
For most of the 2000s, the IPO has been in a negative phase, and scientists think its cooling effect has helped to slightly offset the effect of climate change, an explanation for the so-called global warming pause in the first part of the 21st century. As multiple studies have pointed out, this temporary slowdown is consistent with the overall long-term warming trend and in no way suggests that human-induced climate change is not occurring. Rather, this natural variation in the global climate helped to slightly blunt those effects.
Many scientists believe that the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm, phase, which could amplify, rather than offset, human-caused climate warming. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.
That’s the conclusion of the new study, written by Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne. Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.
The exact difference in timing depends on how we define the milestone itself, the researchers point out. We could say we’ve hit the threshold the first year the global mean temperature is 1.5 degrees warmer than it was during the preindustrial era, regardless of how the temperature fluctuates after that point. Or we could say it has happened when the mean temperature meets this point over the course of a five-year period or longer. Or, because global mean temperature tends to wiggle up and down a bit from one year to the next, we could say it’s the point at which we cross the 1.5-degree threshold and never dip below it again.
The scientists explored all but the last scenario in their paper and found that the projected year for crossing the 1.5-degree threshold varied slightly among them. Generally, however, the models suggested it would occur between 2025 and 2029 (most likely around 2026) if the IPO shifts to a positive phase, and around 2031 if it stays in a negative phase. (They were not able to investigate the final scenario, they noted, because it probably will occur much further in the future and the number of IPO phases humans have observed since detailed record-keeping began is not sufficient to inform the model simulations required.)
“The paper emphasises the way that natural climate variations, like the IPO, can interact with the progression of human-caused global warming,”Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told The Washington Post. “Therefore, the timing of when we cross certain thresholds depends on the interplay between these two factors.” Meehl was not involved with the new study but has previously published research on the IPO.
And the 2025 date for hitting the 1.5-degree temperature threshold is looking more and more likely. Multiple studies in the past few years suggest that the transition to a positive IPO phase has begun. Henley said there’s some uncertainty about whether that has happened, but other scientists are more confident. Scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth, also of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, have published research to this effect, and both told The Post that we have been in a positive phase for several years now.
In fact, Trenberth and Fasullo suggested that the paper’s conclusions have been generally known for some time. They also pointed out that the study has its limitations. Fasullo suggested that the various reasons given for the 1.5-degree temperature threshold are “deficient” for precisely the reason that they’re sensitive to climate variations such as the IPO.
Trenberth said that the 1.5 degrees – as a single, concrete number – is “pretty irrelevant.” He noted that “it is all of the other things going on when that stage is reached that really matter: the heat waves, wildfires, droughts, extreme rainfalls, etc.”
It’s also unclear, for now, how significant the difference between a positive and negative IPO really is in terms of what the planet would look like under either scenario. The timing difference for hitting the 1.5-degree target is only about five years. At the point when a positive IPO would cause us to cross the threshold, the researchers note that the global temperature under a negative IPO would probably be about 0.2 degrees Celsius cooler. Whether there would be a significant difference in the actual climate effects produced under these different mean temperatures is uncertain.
It’s also possible that the business-as-usual scenario used in the study won’t come to pass and that the Paris agreement will indeed drive down global emissions enough to push off 1.5 degrees for a longer period of time. (Overall, the accord lists a goal of staying “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.)
But the paper clearly indicates that the 1.5-degree target is fast approaching. In fact, according to Meehl, the paper underscores a point that many climate scientists have been warning about: that we’re increasingly likely to blow past our climate goals, and soon. And with a potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris accord looming, this scenario is now more likely than ever.
“Given our rapid approach, one way or another, to the 1.5-degree threshold, the most plausible way to reach it at this point looks like we would have to overshoot and attempt to come back down to it afterward with policies that would significantly reduce emissions going forward,” Meehl suggested. Some scientists have proposed technology that would actually remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thus cooling the climate in the future, but that’s a long way from being a practical solution to climate change.
“I guess the important thing is that policymakers should be aware of just how quickly we are approaching 1.5 degrees, and just realising the urgency of reducing emissions,” Henley said. “It’s critical to keep pursuing the 1.5-degree goal.”
Speaking at this year’s Vienna Energy Forum, UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohammed said that achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal on energy, with its targets on universal access, energy efficiency and renewable energy, is central to both the UN’s global goals, and achieving the central goal of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which is to limit the maximum global average temperature rise to as close as possible to 2 degrees Celsius.
“The 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement are mutually reinforcing and inseparable. And it is why Member States have overwhelmingly endorsed both. Implementing the 2030 Agenda and addressing climate change must go hand-in-hand,” she said.
The UN Deputy Secretary General also warned that time is running out, and that climate change impacts, driven by globally rising temperatures, are accelerating. Because of this, the Paris Agreement needs to be rapidly implemented and clean energy scaled up:
“Droughts, floods, high heat, extreme weather, and rising seas are displacing people as never before and putting lives and livelihoods in jeopardy. And there is a real humanitarian cost, climate impacts have already incurred huge expense for business owners and the insurance industry. No country or sector is immune,” she said. Excerpts:
Amina Mohammed
I was with many of you for the journey that led to the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
Together, these two ground-breaking agreements are a transformative vision for a better world – universal, inclusive and integrated, an agenda for shared prosperity, peace and partnership on a healthy planet.
But realising that vision means we must address climate change as a matter of utmost urgency.
And we know that climate change is a scientific fact. There is no longer any doubt.
It is a real and present threat to peace and prosperity around the globe.
Droughts, floods, high heat, extreme weather, and rising seas are displacing people as never before and putting lives and livelihoods in jeopardy.
And there is a real humanitarian cost; climate impacts have already incurred huge expense for business owners and the insurance industry.
No country or sector is immune.
That is why 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement are mutually reinforcing and inseparable.
And it is why Member States have overwhelmingly endorsed both.
Implementing the 2030 Agenda and addressing climate change must go hand-in-hand.
Fighting poverty and combatting climate change are the same fight.
If we commit to action, we can fulfil the Paris climate goals and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and deliver prosperity and security for billions of people.
But we must act quickly and decisively, before the window of opportunity closes.
At the heart of these two agendas lies energy.
A transformative approach to energy makes all our Sustainable Development Goals possible, from reducing poverty to delivering clean water; from powering innovation and industry to providing light for children to learn; from delivering essential health services to empowering women and youth; from addressing food security to mitigating climate change.
That is why the 2030 Agenda has established the first ever universal goal on energy, SDG7: to “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.”
Achieving SDG 7 on energy, with its targets on universal access, energy efficiency and renewable energy, will open a new world of opportunity for billions of people.
It will lay the foundation for the eradication of poverty, for climate action and for a sustainable world.
Simply put, without progress on SDG7, it will be impossible to achieve the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement.
Today, nearly one in every seven people lacks access to electricity.
More than three billion people rely on wood, charcoal, animal and crop waste or other solid fuels to cook their food and heat their homes.
That’s 40 per cent of all our people.
Indoor air pollution kills some four million people a year; most of them are women and children inhaling toxic smoke.
While there has been good progress in improving rates of electrification in recent years, the burden of energy poverty is still heavy in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
Energy production is also responsible for 35 per cent of our greenhouse gas emissions, while energy use in transport and industry accounts for another 35 per cent.
So, transitioning to sustainable energy systems that meet every one’s needs, that leave no one behind, and that do so cleanly, reliably and affordably – is essential for sustainable development and the real solution to climate change.
The good news is that much is already happening to transform our energy economy.
Smart entrepreneurs are facilitating new business models, mobilising investment and deploying innovative technologies to expand access to modern energy in developing countries.
Smart governments are shifting public policy to embrace renewable energy as part of their energy mix and to drive energy efficiency.
In the United States, solar energy already employs more Americans in the power sector than oil, gas, and coal combined.
China aims to increase its renewable energy by about 40 per cent by 2020.
India’s solar capacity is expected to double next year.
Saudi Arabia plans to install 700 megawatts of solar and wind power.
It’s a great start.
Globally, over a half of the investment in the power sector is now made in renewable energy.
And more than eight million people already work in the renewable energy industry.
In all regions, governments and businesses are increasingly investing in clean energy.
Countries, cities, companies and communities that are leading the way do so because it makes sense and it matters to the bottom line.
It makes sense in terms of health and well-being through cleaner air, safer communities and less volatile weather.
It makes sense in terms of competitiveness with cleaner cities attracting new businesses and providing more jobs and better livelihoods.
And it makes sense in terms of security, with nations and communities gaining access to abundant, clean power for the long-term future.
However, there is still much to do.
Globally, energy efficiency improvement could account for 40 per cent of the emissions reduction we need to see.
Yet we are far off the pace of improvement we need.
This is a critical issue for energy intensive economies, but also for the less developed where heavy fuel oil and diesel are a drain on the public purse.
For years, fossil fuel-based energy systems, transport systems and energy intensive industries have played a critical role in developing the world we live in.
But we know that now they are also creating the conditions that can do or undo all our progress.
Therefore the true cost of these fuels has to be reflected in the economy.
We need to price carbon as the pollutant that it is.
Many countries are coming to this conclusion.
We need to end harmful fossil fuel subsidies.
And we need to continue to innovate in financing for cleaner growth.
The Energy Transitions Commission has estimated that the incremental cost to secure an energy transition that gives everyone opportunity is between $300 and 600 billion a year.
This may seem a lot, but in terms of total annual investment capital this is neither large nor beyond our collective capacity.
Green bonds are starting to be a mainstream instrument – the market reached over $200 billion this year alone.
But, at the current pace of progress, we still won’t achieve SDG7 by 2030.
We need to re-double our efforts.
We need your leadership and commitment to capacity building, innovation, technology transfer and partnerships – genuine partnerships that will scale up our efforts.
Moving forward, we have a number of opportunities.
Nationally Determined Contributions can harness clean energy solutions to drive progress towards the Paris Agreement. I saw that first hand as Minister of Environment, when we implemented the first Green Bond.
The UN High Level Political Forum in 2018 provides an important opportunity to undertake the first in-depth review of SDG7 and catalyse bold action.
Voluntary Nation Reviews of the 2030 Agenda including the SDGs provide critical inputs.
Regional and global cooperation will also be crucial in furthering alignment, coherence and coordination.
At the UN, we intend to strengthen leadership for policy coherence and coordination, including through UN-Energy, in support of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris agreement. The leadership of Rachel Kyte is exemplary.
We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to provide peace, prosperity, opportunity and dignity for all on a healthy planet.
We cannot afford to fail. Not for our children and not for their children.
I look forward to sharing the concrete, bold ideas and action from all of you.
Together we have the opportunity to bring about transformative change.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has confirmed the death of one person in the latest outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DPR).
An Ebola patient receiving treatment
The Congo Ministry of Health notified the WHO of nine suspected cases of Ebola in the Aketi territory, in the north-eastern province of Bas-Uele, WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said.
Three people with the hemorrhagic fever have died, but only one death has been confirmed as resulting from the Zaire strain of Ebola.
Officials suspect that the two other deaths were also caused by the highly infectious virus, which spreads through contact with bodily fluids.
Symptoms such as fever, headache, muscle pain, fatigue, diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal pain and hemorrhaging can begin two to 21 days after exposure.
The Zaire strain of the virus is one of the most lethal. A 2007 outbreak of this strain in Congo had a fatality rate of 74%, claiming 200 lives.
There is no approved vaccine to prevent the virus, and there is no approved treatment or cure.
In 2014, more than 11,300 people were killed in the worst-ever outbreak of the virus in West Africa, most of them in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
The Federal Government confirmed 198 Ebola cases in Nigeria as at August 2014 following the death of a Liberian, Patrick Sawyer, who flew in for a conference, and that of a Nigerian medical doctor, Stella Adadevoh, who attended to him.
This is the eighth epidemic of Ebola that Congo has faced.
