Nigeria’s northeast exemplifies a typical extreme case of the country’s version of climate change, reveling in ecological imbalance and accompanied with devastating consequences. It is evident that the northeast grapples with an unprecedented number of “climate induced migrations” courtesy of the multifaceted climate change and its palpable effects; ranging from desertification, drought, flooding and, quite disturbing, the near disappearance of the Lake Chad basin – which all put the region in a dire strait.

The utmost source of apprehension is the impending disappearance of Lake Chad, the multipurpose lake and economic backbone of the region used to be characterised with fertile shores for farming, a natural habitat for fishing, a medium for moving freight across the adjacent countries and which constitutes the core source of irrigation in the region – is now shadow of itself and threading the catastrophic path of oblivion.

Russell Bishop, Senior Research Fellow, Overseas Development Institute, said:  “Between 1963 and 2013, the lake lost 90 percent of its water mass, shrinking from 25,000km2 to 2,500km2”.

In the same vein, more than 30 million lives depend on the lake.  And the lake, which was once one of the biggest bodies of water in the world, could disappear entirely by 2030, says the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

As the region grieves the ripple effects of the shrinking lake, drought takes hold of the region – further worsened by desert encroachment which is fast depleting the arable lands and turning them to sand dunes. The livelihoods of the inhabitants in the region which revolve around farming, cattle rearing and fishing are facing existential threats owing to the devastated ecosystems. Suffice to say that the annual outputs of wheat, millet, corn, peanuts, rice, sorghum, tubers among others which are peculiar to the region are first time in history at the lowest ebb.

While the once lively and economically endowed fish market in Baga, Maiduguri remains desolate, attention has shifted to Darak, an affluent fishing settlement lying within Cameroonian territory. All these trigger downward spiral of Nigeria’s GDP. Not surprising, the combined effects of the unfortunate incidences have dwindled economic fortunes and even impaired economic activities of the region bringing it to a halt – thereby forcing exodus of farmers, fishermen and pastoralists to turn to environmental migrants in their quest for greener pastures.

It is now a thriving place for illicit arms and Boko Haram terrorism. Boko Haram terrorists readily gain recruits within the region owing to unemployment precipitated by climate change. It is sympathetic seeing many inhabitants of Nigeria’s northeast losing their families, reeling in poverty, abandoning their properties and fleeing their homes in endlessly seeking  fortress in the nearby villages and the neighboring countries of Cameroon, Niger and Chad.

According to Adams Smith International, about two million people were displaced in northern Nigeria as at 2016. Abandonment of properties and displacement profile which keep rising daily are clear indications that “climate migration” is a ticking bomb that urgently need attention.

How it all started

In their research, Coe and Foley of the University of Wisconsin, Madison stated: “Irrigation demands increased four-fold between 1983 and 1994, accounting for 50 percent of the additional decrease in the size of the lake.” Based on the data and the reality of population increase in the region, need do I say that the percentage attributed to irrigation demands increased.

Reduction in the Lake size is attributed to many cogent factors by researchers and environmentalists – the factors comprise physical and evolving climate factors. Part of the factors are: pressure on the lake culminating water diversion, irrigation, over fishing and damming; further compounded with less rainfall which induces drought. All these have facilitated and exacerbated perpetual shrinkage of the Lake Chad basin. As a result, it won’t be out of place to note that the key known tributaries of Lake Chad – which are river Chari and Logone have drastically reduced in sizes and capacities; thereby, making natural replenishment a difficult reality.

Foley said, “The problem is expected to worsen in the coming years as population and irrigation demands continue to increase.”

Such is the precarious situation of the region and the problem in the offing. Some climatologists opine that there is high tendency for the shrinkage to not have occurred had it been the lake was not over stretched by the growing population. The earnest competition for the available scarce resources by the teeming population birthed restiveness, terrorism and territorial clashes.

Efforts so far and long-term solutions

Towards addressing the problem of the drying lake among myriads of other climate problems, Nigeria is a member of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), an intergovernmental organisation that coordinates water usage in the region. And Nigerian government actively participated in the 2015 Paris Climate agreement where an ambitious and feasible Climate Action plan was submitted to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the universal legally binding agreement, Nigerian government was committed to cutting carbon emissions by 40%, and, most importantly, resuscitation of the shrinking Lake Chad Basin.

In that regard, Nigeria has contributed about $5 million out of about $15 million required to carry out comprehensive and holistic feasibility study on recharging the lake, thereby leading to a forecast that about $15 billion to $20 billion would be required to recharge the lake.

Conflicting speculations emerged of a recent that the lake would be recharged from the Congo River to the River Chari; which discharges into Lake Chad. While Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Geoffrey Onyeama, said the lake recharging would possibly be from the Rangin River – located in Central Africa. However, what is certain is the assiduous commitment to recharge the lake from the nearby rivers – with quantifiable capacities.

Sadly, due to paucity of funds in raising about $20 billion within the members of LCBC, the lake recharging project slated to begin in 2017 is currently crawling and dispels hope of any tangible achievement as the year is about to end – since no significant recharging work is ongoing.

Also, Nigeria championed formulation of Great Green Wall Project geared towards creating green shelter belt (about 10,000 km long from Senegal in the west to Djibouti in the east and 15 km in width) in combating drought and resisting the vast encroachment of Sahara desert into Sahel and Sudan climate regions. The motive behind this commendable initiative is the set target of turning the Sahara and the Sahel regions to agricultural hubs by 2050.

No doubt, the gigantic Great Green Wall project will neutralise ecological imbalances, provide job and food for the teeming population in the Northeast thereby, easing pressure on the Lake Chad basin — if implemented.

According to The Guardian, National Agency for Great Green Wall (NAGGW) is embarking on planting of 1.6 million assorted seedlings to cover 129.3 kilometres of the shelterbelt in seven Nigerian Northern states. And out of N1.05 billion approved to carry out this ambitious project in 2017 budget allocation, only N200 million was released to NAGGW. Currently, the project is as well at a standstill.

Barack Obama once affirmed how the drying Lake Chad is a major factor in the migration of Africans to the west and laid premium emphasis on the urgent need to revive the lake towards forestalling exacerbation of climate migration in Africa.

Concerned climate justice advocates wonder why these ambitious projects promising of bringing succour to the region could be crawling. The scenario portrays good policy crafting but poor attitudinal disposition towards implementation of plans by Nigerian government. It won’t be out place to infer that Nigeria indeed has good intentions engraved on paper in combating the multifaceted climate challenges but there is a wide apprehension that the projects are dead on arrival. As it becomes evident that the government mulls over the ambitious projects and exhibits lack of political will in bringing them to reality.

It is quite sadden that nobody could envisage how long or how soon the climate challenges in the region will end. The helpless and vulnerable populations in the Northeast Nigeria are left to bask in the untoward consequences of climate change. And this is a brewing humanitarian crisis that could rattle African regions — if not proactively tackled.

By Odewale Abayomi Joseph (Climate advocate and ICFJ Migration and  Climate Fellow; @ODEWALEAbayomi)

Recently, some residents of Anagada, a suburb of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, near Zuba, Gwagwalada Area Council, expressed concern about how tree felling has compromised the beauty of some communities in the area.

In separate interviews, they noted that although the community has increased in its size of population due to the regular electricity supply, tree felling and housing development have affected decent living.

For instance, Alhaji Alhassan Musa, the Village Head and Gadachi of Anagada, said some people deforested some areas because of farming activities and housing development.

Musa cited cases in which farmers had to cut down some trees in the village because they wanted to clear land for farming purposes.

“If farmers don’t cut down some trees, farm produce such as cassava and corns will not grow well according to them, while some people deforested because they wanted to build houses.

“Before, I can count number of houses in this community, but now due to regular electricity supply, many people come from neighbouring villages to acquire land to build houses.’’

The village head said the residents experienced heat due to felling of trees that had been providing protection against heat and other natural disasters.

He said further that farmers used the felled trees to empower their wives by engaging in firewood selling, not minding that the Gwagwalada Area Council had taken serious action on tree fellers.

“Area Council Task Force arrests anybody found cutting trees and does not allow anybody to do charcoal business,’’ he said.

But Mrs Halimat Nuhu, a firewood seller in the village, said she remained in firewood selling because her husband used tractors to convey the firewood from his farms to house to enable her to sell.

Nuhu, who said her family survived on farming and firewood business, said they used the money realised from the business to feed and send their children to schools.

Mr Shuaibu Bako, a farmer and hunter in Anagada Village, said the number of hunters had also reduced drastically due to farming and housing development in the village.

“When we were younger, we only came out beside our village and killed bush meats we wanted.

“We don’t have more stress to kill animals for food, but now, due to the population we have, it has been until we go up to 20 kilometres before you kill animals,’’

He said the population of the hunters in the village before now higher than what they had now due to deforestation.

Musa, who said hunters survived by hunting activities, said they got away from the village because there were no more animals within the village,’’ he said.

Similarly, Dr Taiwo Audu, a lecturer in Civil Engineering Department, University of Abuja, said felling of trees had led to rise in temperature in Gwagwalada and its environs.

“The environmental temperature is on the increase this day due to the depletion of ozone layer, industrial air pollution, deforestation activities, mechanisation of agriculture and construction activities.

“The displacement of animal habitat is caused by tree felling especially animals that leave on trees; there is also increase in noise pollution caused during falling of trees that leads to animals’ migration.

“The increase in environmental temperature creates discomfort to animals and the cattle the shepherd.

“Tree felling leads to shortage of food available to animal which forces them to migrate from region of food scarcity to that of food availability, distorting the ecosystem’’ he observed.

Alhaji Mustapha Adamu, Chairman, Gwagwalada Area Council, confirmed that the council had a task force that enforced environmental regulations as part of measures to check tree fellers’ activities and other environmental hazards.

According to him, the council is collaborating with trees planting companies and other relevant stakeholders to replace the felled trees.

In his opinion, Mr Dennis Ugwuja, the Executive Director, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Initiative, a non-governmental organisation, said “due to poverty and other economic factors, more people in the rural areas engage in the business of tree felling.

“Charcoal business has become the booming business of the day. The worrisome aspect of this is that the tree fellers make little or no effort to plant new trees.

“It is common knowledge that our environment is our heritage which we are entrusted to optimally protect, preserve and conserve, especially the original flora and fauna species.’’’

Ugwuja, therefore, called for immediate actions and regulations as well as stringent measures to check indiscriminate tree felling and hunting in the country.

Yet, the National Bureau of Statistics observes that it is worrisome that 26.8 per cent households cooked with firewood in urban areas while 71.0 per cent households used firewood to cook in rural areas of the country.

The World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Survey on Agriculture General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016 in which the report is published – is produced by the bureau in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the World Bank.

The statistics also states that 4.6 per cent households cooked with charcoal in urban areas while 4.7 per cent households used charcoal to cook in the rural areas, while 59.2 per cent households used kerosene in the urban areas and 20.2 per cent households cooked with kerosene in the rural areas.

The statistics notes further that 8.4 per cent households cooked with gas in urban areas while 3.5 per cent households used gas to cook in the rural areas of the country.

However, Mr Adetolu Osakuade, the Acting Director of Forestry, Federal Ministry of Environment, said Nigeria had 1,213 forests reserves.

Osakuade said forestation in Nigeria had reduced drastically as a result of development and factors that led some forests reserves to be deforested.

“From 10 per cent at independence, we are running down to five per cent which United Nations Food Agricultural Organisation, by its own recommendations and standards for sustainable development, recommended 25 per cent for every country.

“Governments have been doing so much but the new thinking is more of creating awareness and engagement of users, takers and those that have been benefiting in the forest to have reorientation to plough back for what they have taken.’’

“You know that the forest reserve is static; it is only 10 per cent of the country’s land mark that is under forest reserve.

“So, if we must achieve 25 per cent forests cover that means we must go outside the forest reserves,’’ he said.

He, nonetheless, stressed the need for governments and other stakeholders to go and acquire agricultural land, park land and bush fallow land to achieve 25 per cent forests cover.

By Deji Abdulwahab, News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)