The Nigerian Conservation Foundation (NCF) has underlined the need to build natural resource value of wetlands within the general Great Green Wall (GGW).
A wetland
The Lagos-based environment watchdog is also seeking the integration of the GGW programme to biodiversity value enhancement in the West African region.
These action points form part of the NCF contributions to the CSO (civil society organisation) e-forum on the Great Green Wall of the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative (GGWSSI), organised by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
While calling for capacity building for biodiversity monitoring in the GGW Area essentially for members of the Nguru Integrated Farmers Association (NIFA), the group is clamouring for capacity building support of communities in appropriate tree species identification and nursery management.
Concerning activities and mechanisms to engage CSOs, Alade Adeleke of the NCF wrote: “Enhancing the role of wetlands in the scheme of Great Green Wall Planning and Management is noteworthy. A good example is the Hadejia Nguru Wetlands in Jigawa and Yobe States of Nigeria.
“Emphasis should also be on design, integration and development of grazing routes within the scheme of GGW development and management as part of the general land use planning of the GGWSSI.”
The NCF director also underscored the need on common bird monitoring and use of GGW by migratory waterfowl and land birds. He also suggested stakeholder participation in GGW development and management for sustainability purpose.
Besides allowing participants to identify groups of actors and their needs to take into account in the GGWSSI, the two-week forum that comes to a close on Tuesday (January 20, 2015) also aims at providing documentation best practices in connection with the GGWSSI and the needs of identified groups.
The results of the forum will be presented at a dissemination workshop that will integrate the proposals in the final document of the project.
The GGWSSI is a planned project to plant a wall of tree across Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara desert as a means to prevent desertification.
Where are the up-and-coming real estate opportunities in 2015?
When discussing investment opportunities for real estate, people normally think of cities such as London or New York. However, emerging cities across Africa are filled with opportunities for those looking to invest in property.
Global property portal, Lamudi, has compiled a list of emerging investment hotspots across the continent, based on market trends, infrastructure developments and attractive commercial, residential and industrial real estate opportunities.
Launched in 2013, Lamudi focuses on emerging markets, and is currently available in 28 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
Casablanca, Morocco
Abuja, Nigeria
With its status as one of the world’s emerging cities, the Federal Capital Territory continues to attract real estate investors, interested in benefiting from its array of well-developed architecture and strong infrastructure. Abuja boasts good security and a favourable climate for business. The city’s Business Zone is home to an array of multinational companies expanding their offices into the emerging market. As Nigeria emerges as an attractive investment hotspot, the outskirts of Lagos are also increasing in popularity. Areas including Epe, Ota, Agbara, and Ajah have witnessed a growth in industrial parks, and boast affordable rates whilst in close proximity to the city of Lagos.
Naivasha, Kenya
Located 90 kilometers northwest of Nairobi, Naivasha has attracted a number of developers into the region. Tourist attractions in and around Naivasha, such as the Lake Naivasha, Hell’s Gate, Aberdare Hills and Longonot National Park have led to the town’s development as a preferred getaway location, increasing demand for holiday homes in the area. With an environment conducive to both business and leisure, in addition to the availability of land, 2015 will see growth in residential, commercial and industrial real estate investment opportunities in Naivasha.
Casablanca, Morocco
Morocco’s industrial and business center is home to numerous Moroccan and international companies, taking advantage of its close proximity to Europe and international trade routes. The dynamic city is increasingly attractive to Morocco’s young population, looking to settle down in a modern area with an abundance of employment opportunities. The city is seeing a number of commercial development projects taking place to improve the retail and entertainment facilities on offer.
Jardins de Carthage, Tunisia
This recently established neighborhood, south of the historic site of Carthage, has become a hotspot for luxury real estate. With the popular tourist site in close proximity, Jardins de Carthage is an attractive option for luxury real estate developers, and house-hunters, looking to invest in upscale property. With Tunisia’s largest airport, Tunis-Carthage located nearby, this modern, residential neighborhood has all of the necessary structures to attract foreign investors.
Ndola, Zambia
Ndola, situated approximately 320 kilometers north of Lusaka, has seen extensive development in recent years. The booming manufacturing sector presents an abundance of opportunities for industrial real estate, with no signs that the demand for local manufacturing will slow. The city is the industrial and commercial center of Zambia’s copper-mining region and with one of the country’s three international airports located here, its strong transportation connections facilitate industrial development.
Algiers, Algeria
Nicknamed ‘Alger la Blanche’ after the sea of white buildings within Algeria’s capital, Algiers is emerging as an appealing location for investors. The country’s growing economy in recent years has positively impacted the local construction and real estate sectors. A suburb of Algiers, in northern Algeria, Bab Ezzouar, is one of the fastest growing areas of the city. Home to the most prominent technological university in the country, the University of Sciences and Technology Houari Boumediene, the suburb has a vibrant, youthful community.
Approximately 127 million people and more than 24 million households in Nigeria cook the traditional way: depending solely on wood as a source of fuel, a method widely described as a silent killer.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), cooking smoke causes 95,300 deaths in the country annually. In fact, Nigeria is said to experience the highest number of smoke-related deaths in Africa; the third after Malaria and HIV/AIDS.
Observers believe that traditional cooking with wood is expensive, costing poor families money that could be put to better use on education, health and nutrition. The trend also causes deforestation and climate change, burning up to 90% more wood than is necessary, they reason.
There is, however, a growing momentum for change in the nation.
Indeed, the clamour is now for the use of cooking gas and clean cookstoves, which experts say save lives, money, forests and empowers women.
Consequently, the Federal Executive Council last November approved a whopping N9,087,250 for the procurement of cookstoves and wonderbags by the Ministry of Environment.
But, in a bid to ensure that the government incentive achieves the purposes meant for, Connected Development (CODE), via its “Follow The Money” initiative, has started monitoring activities around the money meant to procure and distribute some 750,000 clean cookstoves and 18,000 wonderbags.
Chief Executive of CODE, Hamzat Lawal, said in Abuja on Wednesday: “As part of our strategies to make sure this incentive gets to and impacts thousands of rural women that it is meant for within the stipulated time frame, we have sent out a request for information, according to the Freedom of Information Act, to the Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Special Duties and the Integra Renewable Energy Limited (the procurement contractor), seeking for the work plan and beneficiaries of this incentive. We hope they will respond within seven days as stipulated by law in the 2011 Freedom of Information Act.”
According to Lawal, the group will build a large evidence base for the campaign on the Follow The Money website “that hopes to update every stakeholder and citizens of Nigeria and the world at large on how these funds translate in concrete terms and benefit rural women in the country.”
Similarly, the Nigerian Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, as part of moves to strengthen the supply chain for clean cooking energy solutions in the country, will in the last week of this month in Abuja hold a Clean Cooking Energy Expo and Conference.
The two-day event will likewise support the development of an enabling environment for expanding the market for clean cookstoves and cleaner fuels; create demand for cleaner fuels and stoves; bring together policy makers, suppliers, retailers and consumers of clean energy value chain; and, display the diversity in the product range available in the Nigerian market.
The forum, it was gathered, will comprise sessions covering topics such as: Creating an enabling environment for the growth of the clean cookstoves market; Strengthening the supply chain for the LPG market; The role of the government in expanding the market for efficient biomass stoves; Facilitating finance for clean cookstoves market growth; Enabling clean cooking energy industrialisation; and, Enhancing Demand.
Key participants will include policymakers, business leaders, stove producers, distributors, retailers and consumers, banks and financial institutions, NGOs, donors and CSR partners.
The Alliance is a public-private partnership established to introduce 10 million clean cookstoves to Nigerian homes and institutions by 2020. It supports policy change, better technical standards and innovative financing in the development of a national clean cookstove industry. Since its launch in 2012, Alliance partners have sold nearly 2 million clean cooking energy solutions, built market development partnerships with states, finance companies and investors; and established a clean cooking energy laboratory.
Despite these achievements however, the market for clean cookstoves in Nigeria is still considered undeveloped, stemming chiefly from both policy and market failures: a lack of awareness about the benefits of clean fuels and stoves; weak government policies; poorly developed supply chain for LPG; insufficient access to finance; and poor coordination along the value chain.
A global movement for accelerated progress comprising of representative organisations, partnerships, and coalitions from every continent and region of the world, action/2015, has been launched in Nigeria. The movement which works together to ensure that 2015 is a transformative year with an ambitious new global sustainable development agenda and an international climate change agreement set sail in Nigeria through a strategic partnership with leading Nigerian civil society organisations under the aegis of Climate and Sustainable Development Network (CSDevNet).
Launch of the campaign in Ibadan, Oyo State. Photo credit: Climate and Sustainable Development Network (CSDevNet)
Speaking to the press after the launch in Lagos on Wenesday, Atayi Babs, National Network Coordinator of CSDevNet who also doubles as the Lead Facilitator for action2015Nigeria, stated that 2015 is a critically important year as processes that will potentially shape development frameworks across the globe will be concluded.
His words: “2015 is the year three UN summits that can bend the course of history will hold. One in March that will develop a post-2015 framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, another in September that will agree on a new Sustainable Development Goals (to replace MDGs) – a new framework for humanity – to tackle poverty, gender inequality and environmental crisis and the third in December to set new Climate Action Targets – a crucial step towards a safer planet and it is in furtherance of these that action2015 was formed to demand change and work to ensure world leaders adopt truly ambitious goals and agreements on climate change, poverty, inequality, and injustice.
“‘action/2015Nigeria’ is therefore a platform to build a groundswell of public pressure and ensure action is taken to deliver transformational change. It is also an avenue to think globally while acting locally, providing ways for everyone everywhere to get involved by talking, taking action, texting and tweeting their way into influencing the outcomes of these global debates. These debates affect us all. Our leaders must hear our voice. When political leaders meet and define their positions in these agreements, they will know that millions and millions of people will be demanding their human rights, listening to their promises and are ready to hold them accountable for what they do.”
According to him, key demands of “action2015Nigeria” include the urgent need for all 2015 commitments to reflect an end to extreme poverty that condemns millions of people, especially women and girls, to an early death, poor education and ill health, a turning point in the soaring levels of inequality and discrimination driven by economic policies that deliver for the few rather than the many, and an accelerated transition to 100% renewable energy so that a safer climate and sustainable economy – with all its benefits for people and planet is made possible.
“The ‘action2015Nigeria’ campaign also demands that the Post-2015 Framework must help to make climate action in all countries happen without further delay and must support poor people, particularly in Africa and Nigeria to build resilience so as to adapt to climate impacts they are experiencing already. The network further demands that all 2015 commitments must be underpinned by the four guiding principles of inclusion, equity, people-centredness and environmental sustainability and should prioritise support to high-risk countries like Nigeria and populations disproportionately impacted by natural and human-made hazards and disasters,” he stated
With many countries, cities, and states including Nigeria, billed to hold elections this year and next, Atayi Babs enjoined Nigerians “to pile up pressure on all aspirants until climate change, poverty elimination and renewable energy transition become embedded not just in their manifestoes, but as fundamental human rights necessitating urgent attention of all.”
The national launch of action2015Nigeria which encompasses advocacy visits to media houses, royal fathers, faith and respected opinion leaders, and establishment of action2015 clubs in secondary schools will simultaneously take place across the six geo-political zones of Nigeria from the 14th to 17th of January 2015.
Worldwatch Institute’s State of the World 2014 explores the shifting role of corporations in the UN’s global effort for sustainability
As national governments flounder to resolve pressing global challenges, corporations are positioning themselves within the United Nations framework as efficient players and indispensable partners in international policy debates. But with their immense economic and political sway, can corporations be brought to the development table without the “corporate capture” of governance? In the Worldwatch Institute’s State of the World 2014: Governing for Sustainability, contributing author Lou Pingeot, policy adviser at Global Policy Forum, explains the need for accountability and transparency.
Lou Pingeot, policy adviser at Global Policy Forum
Already, business groups – especially large multinational corporations – have become very active in post-2015 UN initiatives. And, not surprisingly, various business reports now present economic growth and a market-based approach, rather than government regulation, as unambiguous solutions for poverty reduction and economic development.
“Making the business case for sustainable development may be seen as a pragmatic approach,” writes Pingeot. “This begs the question, however, of what to do when necessary efforts for the public good do not constitute a good investment for the private sector.”
Future solutions may depend on moving away from the “business-as-usual” trajectory, in which people are seen as consumers and entrepreneurs, to one that considers them as multifaceted citizens. But with powerful economic actors currently benefiting greatly from the business-as-usual model, they may have a strong interest in resisting far-reaching structural transformation toward sustainability.
The mining industry is particularly over-represented in some UN initiatives. One in five of the 30 corporate representatives in the UN’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network – which includes representation from BP, Anglo American, and Total, for example – have ties to the mining industry.
“It could be argued that these companies are precisely the ones that should be involved because of their important impact on development, human rights, and the environment,” says Pingeot. “However, the mining and oil and gas sectors also have the most incentive to delay or limit the transition to sustainable development, so as to protect their profit sources and ultimately their existence.”
There is merit in – and necessity for – cooperation in order to make large-scale changes in business practice. Some pioneering industries have already begun to lead the path to sustainable development solutions. But the corporate entry into international development will require important reforms for transparency and accountability. The UN will need to adopt a systemwide conflict-of-interest policy and to report funding sources with full transparency. It must clearly define criteria for business participation, excluding players that have broken UN sanctions, lobbied against international agreements, or otherwise violated environmental, social, and human rights conventions.
Avoiding the undue influence of business actors on the post-2015 agenda, while still encouraging private sector participation, will require a major shift in UN norms and policies toward more stringent transparency and accountability.
Worldwatch’s State of the World 2014investigates the broad concept of “governance” for sustainability, including action by national governments, international organisations, and local communities. It also highlights the need for economic and political institutions to serve people and to preserve and protect our common resources.
Lagos, Kano, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo and Oyo states have been urged to resume their participation in the National Housing Fund (NHF) scheme. They had previously discontinued their participation in the controversial exercise.
Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Lands, Housing & Urban Development, George Ossi, with the Deputy Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Valerie Ebie, at the event.
At the 4th Meeting of the National Council on Lands, Housing and Urban Development held recently in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, participants noted that despite the significant progress made by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) in its operations and management of the country’s housing finance sector, the organisation was still constrained by the of failure of some states to embrace the NHF scheme, non-passage of critical mortgage-related bills and delay in the recapitalisation of the apex mortgage house.
The two-day event had “Creating Enabling Environment for Private Sector Participation in Affordable Housing Delivery in Nigeria” as its theme.
Similarly, participants observed there were serious impediments militating against delivery of required housing stock and that Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects could be better deployed to overcome impediments to affordable housing delivery if government comes up with deliberate policies to overcome the challenges of high cost of land, transfer fees and registration processes as well as promotes training of labour, provision of ancillary infrastructure and recapitalisation of mortgage institutions.
The forum underlined the need to promote the unfolding paradigm shift in national housing delivery by further creating the enabling environment for private sector participation in affordable housing with special emphasis on the use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency appliances as viable options for reducing the costs of buildings.
Participants likewise clamoured availability of relevant, evidence-based and up-to-date data on statistics in line with the mandate of the National Population Commission (NPC), and that ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) should review and identify gaps in the 2006 National Population and Housing Census for inclusion in the 2016 Census, while approving the establishment of a framework to guarantee timely updating and sustainability of data input on housing and preparation of a robust plan or the establishment of a Central Housing Statistics database.
It also called for the establishment of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), anchored on Home Ownership Property development cooperative societies driven by partnership with land donors, cooperative members as ‘off-takers’, contractors, investors/financiers, shareholders, Primary mortgage Institution (PMIs) and Bank of Industry (BOI) as currently practiced by Ondo state Development and Property Corporation.
A call was also made for the adoption of technological innovations in areas of walling, roofing and associated materials for housing delivery, by the Nigerian Building and Road Research Institute (NIBRRI) as, according to them, these innovations have significant
advantages over conventional materials in terms of affordability, sustainability and efficiency.
Delegates lamented the impact of the housing deficit, which they described as grievous on the low income group, resulting in more urban slums and higher crime rates. They approved the setting- up of a Joint ActionTaskTeam (JATT) of stakeholders to work out the modalities for implementing the proposed Social Housing programme.
While noting the proactive initiatives taken by the Federal Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development towards the preparation of the National Physical Development Plan (NPDP) aimed at engendering sustainable and integrated development of the Nation as well as ensuring regional balance and optimisation of the use of
national resources, delegates urged the populace to desist from engaging the services of non-town planning professionals in carrying out town planning functions.
It was disclosed that the ministry was in the process of conducting impact assessment of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) projects executed by the ministry as a prelude to the implementation of the MDGs successor programme – the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS).
Nigeria may be spearheading an initiative on the African continent that would accurately measure the level of forest carbon stocks, and reap handsome financial reward.
Left to right: Agu Godson Uche, Field Officer, Federal Ministry of Environment; Salisu Dahiru, National Coordinator, Nigeria UN-REDD+ Programme; Dr John Fonweban, Forestry Officer, UN-REDD Programme, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) office for Africa (FAORAF); Luca Birigazzi, Forestry Expert, UN-REDD Programme; and Bridget Nkor, GIS Specialist, Cross River State Forestry Commission, during the workshop in Calabar
Under the United Nations-supported Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD+) programme in respect of which the country is implementing a Readiness phase, communities are encouraged to leave their forests standing in the belief that trees act as carbon sink and thus mitigate the effects of climate change.
In the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the potential benefits for non-Annex I parties are be based on results that must be measured, reported and verified (MRV). The precision of these results therefore has a major impact on potential financial compensation, and the capacity to measure forest carbon stocks is thus of increasing importance for Nigeria that is mitigating climate change through her forest activities. The measurement of these stocks currently calls on techniques that are applied at different scales such as field inventories on a local scale.
Forest carbon stock measurement at some point needs trees to be weighed in the field, constituting the keystone on which rests the entire edifice of forest carbon stock estimations. Allometric equations are used to predict the biomass (diameter or height) of a tree, and considered a key factor in estimating the contribution made by forest ecosystems to the carbon cycle.
Participants at the workshop
Guidelines have been provided by scientists towards ensuring the construction of these equations to countries that are not yet in possession of measurements and equations that match their forests. It is believed that virtually all African countries fall in this category.
But Nigeria has begun moves to develop her equations in the bid to provide accurate and credible information on her forest stock. At a recent forum in Calabar, Cross River State, local and international experts gathered to fashion out a way to make this a reality.
“Most of the equations we are using in Africa come from models that were developed in Europe. There is virtually nowhere that you see Allometric equations with an African formula. So Nigeria is spearheading this and trying to develop its own equation that will be used to measure its own forest,” says Salisu Dahiru, National Coordinator of Nigeria’s UN-REDD+ programme.
Describing the system being utilised by the UNFCCC as “default model”, Dahiru adds: “For instance, you have Iroko tree, locust bean tree, and many indigenous trees here but we are only using models of forest that does not represent the kind of forest that we have and enable you make adjustments. But if you do your own, it gives you more accurate data and information on the forest, rather than using models developed elsewhere. The process is not novel, but the fact that we are applying it is novel, to suit Nigeria’s forest. To the best of our knowledge, there are no Allometric equations for forests in Africa.”
Dr John Fonweban, Forestry Officer, UN-REDD Programme, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) office for Africa (FAORAF), submits: “When you are talking about carbon, you need to quantify that; you need to quantify what you have. But if you can’t do that, then there is a problem of credibility and that is the reason why Nigeria will have to go that way to be able to quantify and show scientifically and in a transparent manner that this is what we have, this is what models we’ve used to have that. That is where the credibility comes.
“That is even where most of the negotiations will be because you can’t go to the market to sell something when you don’t know how much you have. So you need to quantify the stuff and Nigeria should be able to do that. The other thing is that if Nigeria has to show performance in her REDD+ or reduction of emission process, and at one stage in time they should be able to have what is called a reference level that requires very good and accurate information. It requires this model that is very crucial for Nigeria and I think that they are ready for that.”
Luca Birigazzi, Forestry Expert, UN-REDD Programme, describes biomass assessment as a component of the MRV process.
Describing the gathering as a good representation of stakeholders, he stresses: “It’s a challenging process. There is a lot of potential in REDD+ and I hope it will bring something positive to Nigeria in particular and the world as a whole.”
According to Dahiru, if the emission reduction can measured, reported and verified, the country can benefit from the carbon credit trading process. He adds that it also helps to determine how much emission the country is reducing by implementing REDD+.
His words: “So MRV is a prerequisite for you to even trade on carbon. In terms of what you are getting, it means that you are putting yourself in a position to fast track the carbon process in Nigeria. What we are doing is putting the power to do this in our own hands and determine our own destiny. Everything we are doing is towards reducing emission of the gases that are responsible for global warming. The arrangement now is that if you can demonstrate that you have made some savings, you are now emitting less, then that difference is calculated in terms of tons of carbon dioxide and quantified in terms of dollars for each ton of carbon.
“For REDD, you have a stage called result-based payment stage where if you say you have reduced emissions then somebody will need to see how much of these emissions you have reduced. That is the measurement. The government, communities and civil society do the measurement and it is compulsory for you. If you want to be paid carbon credit, you must report that to the UNFCCC and, for it to be actualised, independent verification must be done. The UNFCCC has its own independent verifiers.
“You as government if you like you can participate in the verification, but in-country (on the ground) you have to involve the civil society and communities to help verify because they have a stake in the carbon credit that will be shared. So, the whole process is done in a transparent manner; everybody that has a stake in it is allowed to participate so that it ensures credibility and nobody will complain at the end of the day. Once you are satisfied with these three conditionality, the certificate that is going to be issued to you will now be taken to the stock market, which is the carbon market, and traded upon.”
A new research identifies which reserves must not be burned to keep global temperature rise under 2C, including over 90% of US and Australian coal and almost all Canadian tar sands
Trillions of dollars of known and extractable coal, oil and gas cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to be kept under the 2C safety limit, says a new report. Photo credit: Les Stone/Les Stone/Corbis
Vast amounts of oil in the Middle East, coal in the US, Australia and China and many other fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground to prevent dangerous climate change, according to the first analysis to identify which existing reserves cannot be burned.
The new work reveals the profound geopolitical and economic implications of tackling global warming for both countries and major companies that are reliant on fossil fuel wealth. It shows trillions of dollars of known and extractable coal, oil and gas, including most Canadian tar sands, all Arctic oil and gas and much potential shale gas, cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to be kept under the 2C safety limit agreed by the world’s nations.
Currently, the world is heading for a catastrophic 5C of warming and the deadline to seal a global climatic deal comes in December at a crunch UN summit in Paris.
“We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2C temperature limit,” said Christophe McGlade, at University College London (UCL), and who led the new research published in the journal Nature. The work, using detailed data and well-established economic models, assumed cost effective climate policies would use the cheapest fossil fuels first, with more expensive fuels priced out of a world in which carbon emissions were strictly limited. For example, the model predicts that significant cheap-to-produce conventional oil would be burned but that the carbon limit would be reached before more expensive tar sands oil could be used.
It was already known that there is about three times more fossil fuel in reserves that could be exploited today than is compatible with 2C, and over 10 times more fossil fuel resource that could be exploited in future. But the new study is the first to reveal which fuels from which countries would have to be abandoned. It also shows that technology to capture and bury carbon emissions, touted by some as a way to continue substantial fossil fuel use in power stations, makes surprisingly little difference to the amount of coal, oil and gas deemed unburnable.
Major fossil fuel companies face the risk that significant parts of their reserves will become worthless, with Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Exxaro owning huge coal reserves and Lukoil, Exxon Mobil, BP, Gazprom and Chevron owning massive oil and gas reserves.
If the world’s nations keep their pledge to combat climate change, the analysis finds the prospects are bleakest for coal, the most polluting of all fossil fuels. Globally, 82% of today’s reserves must be left underground. In major coal producing nations like the US, Australia and Russia, more than 90% of coal reserves are unused in meeting the 2C pledge. In China and India, both heavy and growing coal users, 66% of reserves are unburnable.
While the prospects for gas are better, the study still found 50% of global reserves must remain unburned. But there are stark regional variations, with the giant gas producers in the Middle East and Russia having to leave huge quantities underground, while the US and Europe can exploit 90% or more of their reserves to replace coal and provide local power to their large cities. Some fracking for shale gas is consistent with the 2C target, according to the study, but is dominated by the existing industry in the US, with China, India, Africa and the Middle East needing to leave 80% of their potential shale gas unburned.
Oil has the lowest proportion of unburnable fuel, with a third left unused. However, the Middle East is still required to leave 260bn barrels of oil in the ground, an amount equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire oil reserve. The study’s conclusion on the exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is blunt, finding production must fall to “negligible” levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. The research also finds no climate-friendly scenario in which any oil or gas is drilled in the Arctic.
The new analysis calls into question the gigantic sums of private and government investment being ploughed into exploration for new fossil fuel reserves, according to UCL’s Professor Paul Ekins, who conducted the research with McGlade. “In 2013, fossil fuel companies spent some $670bn (£443bn) on exploring for new oil and gas resources. One might ask why they are doing this when there is more in the ground than we can afford to burn,” he said.
Bill McKibben. Photo: Nancie Battaglia
“The investors in those companies might feel that money is better spent either developing low-carbon energy sources or being returned to investors as dividends,” said Ekins.
“One lesson of this work is unmistakably obvious: when you’re in a hole, stop digging,” said Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org which is campaigning to get investors to dump their fossil fuel stocks. “These numbers show that unconventional and ‘extreme’ fossil fuel – Canada’s tar sands, for instance – simply have to stay in the ground.”
“Given these numbers, it makes literally no sense for the industry to go hunting for more fossil fuel,” McKibben said. “We’ve binged to the edge of our own destruction. The last thing we need now is to find a few more liquor stores to loot.”
Financial experts, including the Bank of England and Goldman Sachs, have begun taking seriously the risk that expensive fossil fuel projects will be rendered worthless by future climate action. James Leaton, research director at the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) said: “Investors are already using the detailed CTI cost curves to start identifying how low demand and price scenarios could play out.”
The research also highlights the contradiction of governments seeking to maximise their nation’s fossil fuel extraction, as in the UK, while simultaneously pledging to limit global warming to 2C. Ekins said if governments approved new fossil fuel production, they should be asked what resources elsewhere would not be exploited.
“If some UK shale gas resources turn out to be economically viable, and provided the local environmental impacts can be made acceptable, I would say we should use them,” he said. “But the caveat is what fossil fuels should we then not be using from somewhere else, if we are going to keep within the carbon budget. That is a question I have never heard asked by a policy maker in this country.”
If a global deal is signed in December to keep most fossil fuels in the ground, then compensating the losers will be key, according to Michael Jakob, a climate change economist at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin. “If you really want to convince developing countries to leave their coal in the ground, you have to offer something else and I don’t think the Saudis will leave that oil in the ground if they get nothing for it,” he said, citing green technology including CCS, as well as financial compensation.
Jakob said the challenge was enormous, but that it provided benefits as well as costs: “There are huge sums at stake, but not just on the losers’ side but also on the winners’ side. Some assets will lose value, but others will gain value, like solar and wind power and land for biomass production.” In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that tackling global warming by diverting hundreds of billions of dollars from fossil fuels into renewable energy and cutting energy waste would shave just 0.06% off expected annual economic growth rates of 1.3%-3%.
The agreement by Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) to pay 55 million (N15.3 billion) pound compensation to the Bodo community over two spill incidents in 2008 has continued to generate reactions. The latest comes from the Lagos-based Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria (ERA/FoEN), which has described the step as a welcome development that should open doors for more communities that have suffered the oil giant’s environmental degradation to seek legal redress.
Shell workers clearing earth from around broken pipeline in Bodo, 7 November, 2008. Photo credit: livewire.amnesty.org
Shell’s decision to pay the community was arrived at after a settlement meeting with the affected community. The firm claims it took responsibility immediately the incident happened.
But, the ERA/FoEN, in a statement, said: “The unrelenting quest for justice by the Bodo community even after six years of frustrating negotiations forced the hands of Shell. The victory goes to the people.”
ERA/FoEN Executive Director, Godwin Ojo, stated: “While we see this agreement as a victory for the Bodo community folks who have suffered ecocide and loss of livelihoods, it is also a glimmer of hope for communities that have endured massive degradation from Shell’s leaking and ill-maintained facilities in the Ogoni and elsewhere in the Niger Delta.
“The amount may seems huge but it is paltry when compared to the ecosystem disturbance and destruction of livelihoods which has denied income to the victims for 6 years in a country where welfare package is non-existent. This is victory to the Bodo people and to all those who stood by them. This is another watershed development and by this a floodgate of similar cases by victims in the Niger Delta is bound to increase against Shell.”
Ojo explained that Shell had thought the community would chicken out in the face of their corporate might. It must be compelled to go beyond piece meal in dealing with the Ogoni issue by complying with the recommendation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) which has a cardinal call for immediate commencement of clean-up of the massively degraded environment.
He added: “In the last four years since the UNEP report was released we have witnessed an unholy alliance of the Nigerian government and Shell manifest in half-steps, deliberate attempts to muddle the issues and the setting up of a Hydrocarbon Pollution Restoration Project (HYPREP) that has been used to deceive the Ogoni people.
“We again use this medium to reiterate that the Bodo, the entire Ogoni in collaboration with other Niger Delta communities and civil society approach the United Nations to appoint a Niger Delta Reconciliation and Restoration Commission with autonomy and authority to do so. The oil companies should be required to contribute an initial amount of $100 billion to address the issues.
“Projects that do not have input from the Ogoni must be abolished and replaced with an internationally recognised clean-up body mutually agreed to by the communities.
“This victory notwithstanding, it is not time to click glasses. Now is the time to pressure Shell to clean up all the polluted environments of the Niger Delta. Tokens are not enough to cover up Shell’s ecocide.”
