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Enhanced implementation, mainstreaming are vital topics at CBD meeting

The first meeting of the new Subsidiary Body on Implementation (SBI-1) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) opened on Monday in Montreal, Canada, focusing on increasing efforts related to strengthening the review process and enhance on-the-ground implementation at global, national, subnational and local levels.

Braulio Ferreira de Souza Dias, the Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity
Braulio Ferreira de Souza Dias, the Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity

The meeting, being held from 2-6 May 2016 at the headquarters of the International Civil Aviation Organisation in Montreal, is expected to adopt numerous recommendations for consideration by Parties to the Convention at their 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 13), set to take place in December this year in Cancun, Mexico.

Among other things, it will review progress made in implementing the Convention and its Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020, consider strategic actions to enhance national implementation, particularly through mainstreaming within and across sectors, and also consider the implications of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals, and of other relevant international processes, for the future work of the Convention. The meeting will also consider the topic of how to increase cooperation and synergies with other biodiversity-related conventions. The meeting is expected to propose guidelines for the sixth national reports, the main means of reporting on progress. The meeting will also consider efforts to support implementation, such as capacity building and technical and scientific cooperation and progress on resource mobilisation. Finally, the meeting will consider the future modus operandi for the SBI, including possible mechanisms to assist Parties in reviewing progress on implementation.

The Conference of the Parties, at its twelfth meeting, established the Subsidiary Body on Implementation to replace the Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group on Review of Implementation of the Convention. Discussions and negotiations at SBI-1 will primarily centre on four main core areas:

Review of progress in implementation

Parties will review progress towards the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and the achievement of its Aichi Biodiversity Targets at the national level. Several Parties have formulated targets related to the Aichi Targets, but many need to match their level of ambition and scope to be commensurate to the Aichi Targets in order to ensure that the aggregate effect of national targets is sufficient to attain the corresponding Aichi Biodiversity Targets at global level. While encouraging progress has been made in meeting some elements of most Aichi Biodiversity Targets, this progress will not be sufficient to achieve the targets by 2020 unless urgent and effective action is taken to enhance implementation.

Parties will also review progress made towards Aichi Biodiversity Target 16 (By 2015, the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilisation is in force and operational, consistent with national legislation). While the first element of Target 16 has been met and significant efforts are being made to implement the Nagoya Protocol, further progress is needed to make the Nagoya Protocol operational in line with the second part of this Aichi Target.

The SBI is also “to review the information gathered and analysed by the Executive Secretary with a view to contributing to the third assessment and review of the Protocol and the mid-term evaluation of the Strategic Plan for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety for the period 2011-2020”. Its findings and recommendations will then be sent to the COP-MOP for its consideration.

Strategic actions to enhance implementation

Parties will review strategic actions to enhance implementation, with a focus on the mainstreaming of biodiversity within and across sectors. The concept of “mainstreaming” biodiversity includes the integration of biodiversity considerations into “cross-sectoral plans, programmes and policies”, such as national planning and development processes, financial policies and budgetary processes, land-use planning, and marine spatial planning, and in sector-specific plans, such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, mining, energy, tourism, transport and others. Mainstreaming biodiversity considerations across these sectors are essential in ensuring not only the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity but also the continued vitality of these sectors.

A decision taken by COP 12 called for COP 13 to focus discussions on mainstreaming in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. These three issues were taken up in last week’s meeting of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice. A fourth sector, tourism, will be addressed by the SBI. All four sectors are expected to be discussed in Cancun.

The SBI will also consider strategic actions for “cross-sectoral” mainstreaming. This includes legislation, policies and economic instruments and other policy tools as well as institutional and governance processes that seek to ensure the consideration of biodiversity in decisions and actions that could impact it. Examples include perverse subsidies, ecosystem accounting, and environmental safeguards. It will also consider the role of key actors, such as the business sector and subnational governments, in contributing to implementation of the Convention and the Strategic Plan 2011-2020.

Strengthening support for implementation

The SBI will review issues related to capacity building, technical and scientific cooperation and technology transfer; resource mobilisation, the financial mechanism of the Convention, cooperation with other conventions, international organisations and initiatives, and how to enhance synergies among biodiversity related conventions.

With regard to financial resources, the Strategic Plan states that the strategy for resource mobilisation including the proposed concrete initiatives, targets and indicators to be developed, and processes for developing innovative mechanisms, provides a roadmap for achieving the effective implementation of Article 20 of the Convention (where developed countries undertake to provide “new and additional financial resources to enable developing country Parties to meet the agreed full incremental costs” of implementing the obligations of the Convention), in order to provide adequate, predictable and timely new and additional financial resources, in support of the implementation of the Strategic Plan.

Regarding the financial mechanism, the meeting will, for the first time ever, have a preliminary draft report, made available by the Council of the Global Environment Facility, for its consideration. This includes the draft report of a full assessment of the funds needed for the implementation of the Convention and its Protocols for the seventh replenishment period of the Global Environment Facility.

In order to catalyse support for implementation in a more coherent manner, the three items related to capacity-building, scientific and technical cooperation and the clearing house mechanism have been interlinked in a single document which includes as an addendum draft short-term action plan for capacity building prepared by the CBD Secretariat. This action plan focuses on various activities, tools, mechanisms and processes for strengthening countries’ institutional and human resources capabilities while technical and scientific cooperation links two or more countries to pursue their individual or collective goals through cooperative exchanges of scientific knowledge, skills, resources and technical know-how.

Operations of the Convention and its Protocols: Improving the efficiency of structures and processes

The SBI will consider the impacts and effectiveness of existing processes under the Convention and identify ways and means that increase efficiencies, including an integrated approach to the implementation of the Convention and its Protocols.

The SBI will also develop guidelines for national reports, as well as possible mechanisms to strengthen review of progress in implementation.

Under the Convention, the focus of review for the coming years will be on progress in the implementation of the Strategic Plan. This requires, as reflected in existing mandates provided by the Conference of the Parties, the review of national targets, plans and actions, as well as their outcomes.

Parties will also review issues related to synergies and cooperation. Paragraph 89 of the outcome document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+ 20), encouraged Parties to multilateral environmental agreements to consider further measures to promote policy coherence at all relevant levels, improve efficiency, reduce unnecessary overlap and duplication, and enhance coordination and cooperation among the multilateral environmental agreements.

Consequently, the SBI will discuss options for Parties of the various biodiversity-related conventions (Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, the International Plant Protection Convention, the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat, and the World Heritage Convention) to enhance synergies and improve efficiency among them. Specifically, the meeting will consider options for action on eight broad thematic issue areas: The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020, the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and national biodiversity strategies and action plans; Institutional arrangements and coordination mechanisms; Information and knowledge management; National reporting, monitoring and indicators; Communication and awareness-raising; Science-policy interface; Capacity-building and; Resource mobilisation and utilisation.

The meeting also includes a couple of dialogue sessions. These will be held at the plenary level to provide
Parties with the opportunity to share their experiences in implementing the different objectives of the Convention and receive inputs and suggestions from others.

Over the last five years, the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity has catalysed concerted action, in particular under the Convention and other biodiversity-related conventions, but also the wider United Nations system, the NGO community, academia, and increasingly the business sector. There is no question that progress has been made in implementing the Strategic Plan and achieving the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

Still, the mid-term review of progress by the twelfth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the CBD, on the basis of the fourth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook and the fifth national reports, concluded that while significant progress has been made towards meeting some components of most of the Aichi Targets, the full achievement of all the targets will not be met in 2020 without urgent action to scale up implementation.
With five years left to implement the Strategic Plan, it will be critically important for Parties to significantly increase their efforts. The first meeting of the SBI can help prepare the ground towards achieving the Plan’s 2050 Vision, that, “by 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”.

Food security and sustainable agriculture – a hanging fruit?

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Nigeria, with over 170 million people, is one of the most populated countries in Africa. Before the oil boom, the economy was known to thrive excellently on agriculture and it was no wonder the Naira was able to rub shoulders with western currencies. But, with the emergence of crude oil and the “pot of gold” that came with it, agriculture, like the old wife, was discarded and forgotten.

Agriculture in Africa is rain fed and thus vulnerable to climate change. Photo credit: osundefender.org
Agriculture in Africa is rain fed and thus vulnerable to climate change. Photo credit: osundefender.org

Nigeria indeed is a country blessed with vast lands, springs of water, human resources and, most of all, beautiful weather all year round. With all of these factors working in her favour, Nigeria can hardly feed her citizens. It is not news that with the oil crunch, this “pot of gold” is quickly looking like an illusion with the negative impacts it has left in its wake. No longer do the leaders brag that the economy can only survive on crude oil.

Though the current administration has said that it will give priority to agriculture, it leaves a lot to the imagination on how they hope to achieve this goal. The previous administration is rumoured of draining the nation’s funds, the Naira depreciated in value and loan agencies are making the processes for farmers to access loans problematic for large-scale farming. How can the country achieve its agenda of achieving food security when the major players are rendered incapacitated by the powers that be? Once loans and grants are easily accessible and used appropriately, the agricultural industry will flourish, and Nigeria will gradually be restored to the robust economy she was before the oil boom.

Imagine for once, Nigeria with its huge population becoming self-sufficient and being able to feed its populace adequately, all other problems confronting the economy such as: poverty, unemployment, crime, etc. would be abated. I trust that it would be profitable once the current government can, with the tenacity of a bulldog, focus on agriculture. I foresee the populace will feel what it is like to have a progressive and effective government.

Due to the large population in Nigeria, and the low percentage of involvement in agricultural practices, a lot of the staple foods consumed are imported. This is another problem that faces both the farmers and the economy alike. I do not advocate for an abrupt ban on importation by the incumbent government, however, with the aid of agricultural NGOs, it would create a sturdy and thriving structure. A readily available and conducive environment needs to be at the disposal of both the young and old. The youth are the strength of a nation’s success. They are the epitome of a country’s power and ability to generate food security through agriculture, an assurance that cannot be compromised before banning importation. The relationship between the government and aforementioned youth need be “glove in hand.”  Sentiments of tribalism and marginalisation need to be entirely eradicated before the government can gain total support from its citizens and achieve her goal. I believe that there are young people who have the passion to go into the industry. All they desire is a guarantee of solid agricultural training, on best practices, subsidised tools and technology for high scale farming projects. A return on investment for the nation would be surplus produce sold nationally and internationally for export. The long term goal of such a concept would be job creation, reduction of crime rate and a sustainable economy.

On the other hand, there are quite a number of NGOs present in Nigeria currently partnering to improve these agricultural pursuits. These organisations have been around for a long time, but the apparent question remains, why no obvious results and deliverables? Could it be that the citizens do not accept their practices, or are there some power plays behind the veil? Most times the organisations and the NGOs that support them are seen dancing to different tunes of music, thereby making the main objective of the organisation or NGO as the case may be, unachievable.  In Dorothea Hilhorst’s book “The Real World of NGOs”, she pointed out: “Because of the asymmetry between givers and receivers,” Stirrat and Henkel point out that partnership should not be understood as legal partnership but more as the partnership of marriage, “…the relationship is as much a site of struggle as a cause of harmony.”  Whatever the case may be, there is need to strike a balance for restoration.

Nigeria, with more than half of her populace being the youth with over 60 million hectares of uncultivated land, I see great possibilities. Channels if properly utilised will bring about the change this current regime has promised.

By Uchenna Joan Awa

Key debates decided for IUCN’s congress in Hawaii

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Key decisions on nature conservation and sustainable development are expected at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) World Conservation Congress 2016 in September, after the motions to be debated and voted upon were published.

Hawaii, the 50th and most recent state of the United States of America, is hosting the IUCN's World Conservation Congress 2016 in September
Hawaii, the 50th and most recent state of the United States of America, is hosting the IUCN’s World Conservation Congress 2016 in September

Held every four years, the 2016 IUCN Congress will be the largest gathering of environmental policy makers since the Paris Climate Agreement and the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals, and presents a major opportunity to start putting these deals into action.

This year’s IUCN Congress motions are indicative of current trends and priorities for conservation, sustainability and the environment. The six key motions primarily identified for debate in Hawai‘i deal with protected areasnatural capitalbiodiversity offsetsocean governanceoil palm expansion and ecotourism. Over 8,000 delegates representing governments, business, the scientific community, NGOs and Indigenous peoples from more than 160 countries will discuss the issues outlined in the motions.

The IUCN Congress will decide and trigger action on a total of around a hundred motions, on issues ranging from closing domestic markets for ivory trade to protecting wild bats from culling programmes, phasing out the use of lead in ammunition or strengthening the role of Indigenous peoples in combating illegal wildlife trade.

An IUCN policy on natural capital, which deals with the value of ‘ecosystem services’ such as water, food, climate mitigation and natural flood defences, is an expected outcome, as is an IUCN policy on biodiversity offsets – actions that compensate for biodiversity losses caused by development projects. The draft decision on ocean governance calls for a legally binding instrument for the conservation of marine biological diversity in the high seas, which account for two-thirds of the world’s oceans.

IUCN Congresses have led the way on thinking in conservation since 1948, flagging climate change as an issue of concern as early as 1960, for instance. Past IUCN Congress motions and the resulting resolutions have been key to developing landmark treaties such as the UNESCO World Heritage Convention, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CDB).

Half of world’s top 500 investors ignoring climate risks

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Report on institutions worth $38 trillion finds growth in low carbon investment and support for climate resolutions but little progress on stranded asset risk

AODP CEO Julian Poulter
AODP CEO Julian Poulter

Climate change is rapidly moving up the agenda for the world’s biggest investors as pension funds and insurers recognise the need for action to protect the savings and financial security of hundreds of millions of people, reveals the annual benchmark report on the industry from the Asset Owners Disclosure Project (AODP).

A fifth (97) of the world’s 500 biggest investors with $US9.4 trillion in funds are taking tangible action to mitigate climate change risk and last year saw a big rise in support for shareholder resolutions and low carbon investment, according to the fourth Global Climate 500 Index. Another 157 worth $14 trillion are taking the first steps.

But very few investors are acting on warnings from Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and chairman of the international Financial Stability Board, that climate action could leave fossil fuel and other high-carbon investments as worthless stranded assets, and 246 investors with $14.3 trillion in funds are ignoring climate risk completely.

AODP CEO Julian Poulter said: “Climate change risk is now a mainstream issue for institutional investors and last year has seen many significantly step up their action to manage this. However, only a handful are protecting their portfolios from the very real danger of stranded assets, and it is shocking that nearly half the world’s biggest investors are doing nothing at all to mitigate climate risk. Pensions funds and insurers that ignore climate change are gambling with the savings and financial security of hundreds of millions of people around the world and risking another financial crisis.”

The independent non-profit AODP rates the world’s 500 biggest investors – pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds, foundations and endowments with $38 trillion of assets under management (AUM) – on their success at managing climate risk within their portfolios, based on direct disclosures and publicly available information. They are graded from AAA to D while those taking no action are rated X.

Investors that recognise climate risk are taking significantly more action than last year, the report reveals. The leaders, rated A to AAA, have grown 29% from 24 to 31 investors with $2.7 trillion AUM. On average, these 12 AAA-rated institutions have outperformed the benchmark return over five years, demonstrating that climate risk can be managed without sacrificing returns.

But the biggest increase has been in asset owners still developing their climate risk strategy, with a 52% rise in those rated C to CCC, from 27 to 41 with $3.4 trillion AUM. There are now 97 investors rated C or above with $9.4 trillion AUM, up from 77, while the D group taking least action has shrunk from 191 to 157 with $14 trillion AUM. However, the number of X-rated laggards has grown from 232 in 2015 to 246 with $14.3 trillion AUM.

Three key strategies for managing climate risk

The Global Climate 500 Index is the world standard for assessing the success of asset owners at managing climate risk. It evaluates them on three approaches: tackling risks associated with high-carbon assets in their portfolios; engaging with the companies they own and with stakeholders throughout the investment chain to reduce climate risk; and investing in low-carbon assets. This year AODP has raised the bar, requiring evidence of tangible action and no longer scores purely for transparency or commitments.

Risk management

  • 10% of asset owners and 74% of the leaders group (rated A to AAA) are measuring carbon in their portfolios, up from 7% and 67% last year. However, only 2% of asset owners have declared a target for reducing portfolio carbon next year.
  • Just 5% of asset owners and only half the leaders disclose that they are measuring the impact that stranded assets may have on their investments – although this is an improvement on the 3% last year. This indicates that more complex risk management activities are often the last to be implemented.

Engagement

  • 13% of asset owners and 97% of leaders now have staff dedicated to integrating climate risk management into the investment process, up from 9% and 79% last year.
  • Support for shareholder resolutions on climate change has grown strongly, with 12% of investors voting in favour of at least one, compared with 7% last year. Among leaders support grew from 67% to 84%.

Low Carbon Investment

  • Low carbon investment grew 63% from $85 billion to $138 billion. General lack of disclosure and difficulties defining low carbon assets mean this is likely to be an underestimate but funds are working to define this better for next year.
  • The Netherlands is the most active country by far with $39 billion invested in low carbon, 3.4% of AUM. The UK’s Environment Agency Pension Fund has 26% of its portfolio in low carbon assets, the highest in the index.

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and chairman of the international Financial Stability Board, has warned that climate change action could make huge reserves of coal, oil and gas unburnable stranded assets threatening investors with huge losses and destabilising markets. The FSB has set up a task force to recommend how Asset Owners the companies they invest in and other financial intermediaries should report the potential impact of climate change on their bottom line.

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said: “The Paris Agreement has set out the path, direction and ultimate destination for the global economy. Increasing numbers of asset owners understand this and more are coming to that realization. I would encourage all of them to pick up the pace and ramp up their ambition in respect to a low carbon transition—it is the key to reducing risk and securing the health of their portfolios now and over the long term”.

Investors and countries leading on climate risk management

The $4 billion Environment Agency Pension Fund tops the Global Climate 500 Index closely followed by Australia’s $7.1 billion Local Government Super, each coming top or second in all three categories and proving that size is no barrier to managing climate risk.

Other leaders include giant institutions which have been active in campaigning for climate action, $391 billion Dutch pension fund ABP and the $301 billion California Public Employees Retirement System, both rated AAA, and UK insurer Aviva with $445 billion of assets, rated A. Frances’s £180 billion Caisse des Dépôts has jumped from a CC rating to a AA, while and $51 billion Swedish pension fund AMF and the UK’s $26 billion Greater Manchester Pension Fund are both up from D to A.

Scandinavian asset owners are taking the most action to manage climate risk. Sweden tops the Country Index, followed by Norway, and Denmark comes fifth. France, where the Paris Climate Summit brought climate risk into sharp focus, takes fourth place with three funds in the top 20 for the first time.

Pension funds account for nearly two thirds of the index (322) and insurers nearly a quarter (118). However, only four of the seven countries that dominate the global pensions market make the top ten in the Country Index. Australia (3rd), the Netherlands (6th), UK (7th) and the US (9th), which are all well represented in the leadership group of institutions rated A to AAA. Canada ranks 11th, Switzerland 14th and Japan 25th.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest asset owner worth $1.2 trillion, is rated D, up from X last year. It has committed to taking environmental, social and governance factors into account in its investments and has started asking its asset managers what they are doing to promote better behaviour in the companies it owns.

Julian Poulter said: “Asset owners in Japan and Switzerland have shown no leadership on climate change and are putting their members and clients at risk. It is the countries with more transparent financial systems where asset owners are more accountable to their members where we are seeing most action.

“This makes it significant that GPIF, the world’s largest asset owner, has taken the first step on the journey to protecting millions of Japanese pension holders from the risks of climate change. We look forward to further action and we hope it will send a signal to a market which has been ignoring the issue for far too long.”

The World Bank has been a leading voice warning about climate risk and high carbon investment, but the report reveals that its $17 billion Group Staff Retirement fund is not translating this into strong action. It is rated D, up from X in 2015. By contrast the UN’s $52 billion Joint Staff Pension Fund is up from A to AA.

The 10 biggest X-rated funds, worth a total $4.9 trillion, include sovereign wealth funds in the oil states of Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as China and Hong Kong, insurance companies China Life, Japan Post and Zenkyoren of Japan, and the US pension fund, Thrift Savings Plan.

Businesses devise ways to adapt strategies to climate goal

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A week after more than 170 countries signed the Paris Agreement and investors voted on a shareholder climate risk resolution at the AGM of US utility AES Corporation, a global network of more than 270 institutional investors (representing assets worth over €20 trillion) has published a guide setting out the threats facing the utilities sector and investor expectations for how these companies must act to adapt their business strategies to a 2°C climate change pathway.

Stephanie Pfeifer, CEO of the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change
Stephanie Pfeifer, CEO of the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change

Launching “Investor Expectations of Electric Utilities Companies – Looking down the line at carbon asset risk,” Stephanie Pfeifer, CEO at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, said on Friday: “With so many countries now clearly committed to implementing the Paris Agreement, institutional investors are concerned that some electric utility companies are not sufficiently prepared for the transition to a lower carbon economy necessary to limit global warming to well below 2°C. Today the global investor community is setting out as clearly as possible their expectations for utility companies on actions required to address climate change risks.”

Matthias Narr, Engagement Specialist at asset manager Robeco and lead author of the guide, added: “This guidance is designed to shape constructive engagement between investors and electric utilities through dialogue on the long-term risks and opportunities these companies face from climate change. Investors need to understand whether utility companies are prepared for the changing market dynamics that are likely to arise from the policies and actions put in place to limit global warming. Business strategy and capital allocation decisions made now and over the coming years will determine the future sustainability and profitability of electric utilities for decades ahead. Investors therefore have a clear need to establish that capital allocation decisions made by the boards of these utilities give due weight to the low carbon transition in ways that will protect both future sustainability and corporate profitability of the sector.”

Dan Bakal, Director of the Electric Power Program at Ceres, said: “During the 2016 proxy season investors are showing unequivocally through shareholder resolutions to companies such as AES that they expect electric power companies to address carbon asset risk by assessing the impact of a 2°C scenario on their future resilience. Going forward, asset owners and fund managers will need to know how power companies – and particularly the boards accountable for overseeing them – see the future impact of climate change on energy demand and pricing, as well as how they plan to align their business model with the GHG reductions required to deliver binding international agreements.”

In addition to questions about policy, technology and demand changes, the guide also encourages investors to ask utility companies about the management of legacy assets, including power generation plants that are no longer economical to use either due to a shift away from fossil fuels or as a consequence of increased water scarcity.

Commenting further Emma Herd, CEO at IGCC Australia and New Zealand, added: “These risks are not theoretical, they are today’s reality for utility companies and their investors across all markets. Climate change is already driving structural transformation in the energy sector. The risks and opportunities created by the transition to a net zero carbon global economy will continue to grow and the pace of change accelerate. It is vital that utility companies undertake comprehensive <2°C stress testing of their business activities and disclose to investors how their business model will fare in the face of climate change.”

Climate change depleting oxygen in oceans, says study

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A reduction in the amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans due to climate change is already discernible in some parts of the world and should be evident across large regions of the oceans between 2030 and 2040, according to a new study led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Deoxgenation due to climate change is already detectable in some parts of the ocean. New research from NCAR finds that it will likely become widespread between 2030 and 2040. Other parts of the ocean, shown in gray, will not have detectable loss of oxygen due to climate change even by 2100.  Image credit: Matthew Long, NCAR
Deoxgenation due to climate change is already detectable in some parts of the ocean. New research from NCAR finds that it will likely become widespread between 2030 and 2040. Other parts of the ocean, shown in gray, will not have detectable loss of oxygen due to climate change even by 2100. Image credit: Matthew Long, NCAR

Scientists know that a warming climate can be expected to gradually sap the ocean of oxygen, leaving fish, crabs, squid, sea stars, and other marine life struggling to breathe. But it’s been difficult to determine whether this anticipated oxygen drain is already having a noticeable impact.

“Loss of oxygen in the ocean is one of the serious side effects of a warming atmosphere, and a major threat to marine life,” said NCAR scientist Matthew Long, lead author of the study. “Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it’s been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change. This new study tells us when we can expect the impact from climate change to overwhelm the natural variability.”

 

Cutting through the natural variability

The entire ocean – from the depths to the shallows – gets its oxygen supply from the surface, either directly from the atmosphere or from phytoplankton, which release oxygen into the water through photosynthesis.

Warming surface waters, however, absorb less oxygen. And in a double whammy, the oxygen that is absorbed has a more difficult time traveling deeper into the ocean. That’s because as water heats up, it expands, becoming lighter than the water below it and less likely to sink.

Thanks to natural warming and cooling, oxygen concentrations at the sea surface are constantly changing – and those changes can linger for years or even decades deeper in the ocean.

For example, an exceptionally cold winter in the North Pacific would allow the ocean surface to soak up a large amount of oxygen. Thanks to the natural circulation pattern, that oxygen would then be carried deeper into the ocean interior, where it might still be detectable years later as it travels along its flow path. On the flip side, unusually hot weather could lead to natural “dead zones” in the ocean, where fish and other marine life cannot survive.

To cut through this natural variability and investigate the impact of climate change, the research team – including Curtis Deutsch of the University of Washington and Taka Ito of Georgia Tech – relied on the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, which is funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.

The scientists used output from a project that ran the model more than two dozen times for the years 1920 to 2100 on the Yellowstone supercomputer, which is operated by NCAR. Each individual run was started with miniscule variations in air temperature. As the model runs progressed, those tiny differences grew and expanded, producing a set of climate simulations useful for studying questions about variability and change.

Using the simulations to study dissolved oxygen gave the researchers guidance on how much concentrations may have varied naturally in the past. With this information, they could determine when ocean deoxygenation due to climate change is likely to become more severe than at any point in the modelled historic range.

The research team found that deoxygenation caused by climate change could already be detected in the southern Indian Ocean and parts of the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins. They also determined that more widespread detection of deoxygenation caused by climate change would be possible between 2030 and 2040. However, in some parts of the ocean, including areas off the east coasts of Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, deoxygenation caused by climate change was not evident even by 2100.

 

Picking out a global pattern

The researchers also created a visual way to distinguish between deoxygenation caused by natural processes and deoxygenation caused by climate change.

Using the same model dataset, the scientists created maps of oxygen levels in the ocean, showing which waters were oxygen-rich at the same time that others were oxygen-poor. They found they could distinguish between oxygenation patterns caused by natural weather phenomena and the pattern caused by climate change.

The pattern caused by climate change also became evident in the model runs around 2030, adding confidence to the conclusion that widespread deoxygenation due to climate change will become detectable around that time.

The maps could also be useful resources for deciding where to place instruments to monitor ocean oxygen levels in the future to get the best picture of climate change impacts. Currently ocean oxygen measurements are relatively sparse.

“We need comprehensive and sustained observations of what’s going on in the ocean to compare with what we’re learning from our models and to understand the full impact of a changing climate,” Long said.

Gambia, Seychelles sign Paris Agreement, signatories now 177

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Two more countries have signed the Paris Climate Change Agreement, bringing the total number of signatories to 177 Parties (176 countries and the European Union) since the agreement was opened for signature at a high-level ceremony in New York on 22 April 2016. The two new signatories are Seychelles, who signed on 25 April 2016, and The Gambia who signed on 26 April 2016.

The Gambia’s low line coastal areas are vulnerable to climate change impact including sea level rise and flooding
The Gambia’s low line coastal areas are vulnerable to climate change impact including sea level rise and flooding

The number of States that have deposited their instruments of ratification remains 15: Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Somalia, State of Palestine, Barbados, Belize, Fiji, Grenada, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Samoa, Tuvalu, Maldives, Saint Lucia, and Mauritius.

Nigeria has neither signed the international treaty nor deposited an instrument of ratification to that effect.

The Paris Agreement will enter into force on the 30th day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession with the Depositary in New York.

Kenya burns recovered elephant ivory, rhino horns, seeks to stop poaching

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Plumes of smoke filled the air of a muddy Nairobi National Park last Saturday as Kenya’s President Kenyatta presided over the burning of 105 tons of elephant ivory and 1.35 tons of rhino horns to send a message to the world that ivory is worth more on an elephant than it is in the market.

Ivory piles burn at Kenya’s Nairobi National Park, April 30, 2016. Photo credit: J. Craig/VOA
Ivory piles burn at Kenya’s Nairobi National Park, April 30, 2016. Photo credit: J. Craig/VOA

The torching of this stockpile made it the largest ivory burn in history.

“The height of the pile of ivory before us marks the strength of our resolve,” said Kenyatta. “Before you, ladies and gentlemen, is the largest haul of ivory and horn ever to be destroyed in this manner. And our reason is crystal clear. No one — and, I repeat, no one — has any business trading in any ivory, for this trade means death. Death to our elephants, and death to our natural heritage.”

The event marked Kenya’s commitment to stopping the poaching epidemic, which has resulted in tens of thousands of elephants across the continent being killed every year for their ivory tusks.

In total, the ivory at the burn represented tusks from an estimated 8,500 elephants, a Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) spokesman said. KWS said a significant part of the stockpile came from ivory and rhino horn captured from poachers or seized in transit.

Critics have argued that poor countries like Kenya should sell the ivory to improve the lives of their people. The Kenya Wildlife Service has responded that selling these illegal trophies dramatically increases elephant poaching, threatening the animals’ very existence. Living elephants have value, whereas ivory does not, it said.

Heather Higginbottom, U.S. deputy secretary of state for management and resources, attended the event and said that saving elephants helps everyone.

“There are economic benefits to tourism, to ecotourism, and that creates jobs and stability and ensures that there will be more and more demand to see these amazing creatures,” said Higginbottom. “That helps the people of Kenya, as well as the habitat and the animals.”

Poaching has escalated to alarming heights in recent years, as 100,000 African elephants were killed between 2010 and 2012.

James Isiche, East Africa regional director of the International Fund for Animal Welfare, said such numbers represent a grave threat to elephants everywhere.

“If the killing continues as it is now,” said Isiche, “then we cannot sustain the elephant populations in the next 20 years.”

Kenya has had success in reducing poaching, from 384 elephants killed in 2012 to 96 killed in 2015. But conservationists say that this progress could quickly be reversed if people don’t remain diligent.

But if they do, then Peter Knights, CEO of the wildlife conservation group WildAid, might be right about Kenya’s 2016 ivory burn.

“This might be the image that represents the end of the ivory trade,” he said.

Kenyatta said he would seek a total ban on the ivory trade at the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species meeting in September.

By Jill Craig (Voice of America)

Review Great Green Wall operations to correct lapses – Dahiru

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Nigeria loses over 21,000sq km of its arable land annually to desertification which encroaches into the northern region of the country from the Sahara Desert.

The destruction of farmlands in the north and the harsh weather caused by the desert have been blamed for the mass migration of locals down south in search of greener pastures, a situation that has contributed in no small way in fuelling the security concerns in the country.

Of recent, several initiatives have been put in place to check desert encroachment, among which is the Great Green Wall (GGW) programme that entails creating a wall of trees along the desert front-line states, to act as wind break, thus preventing the desert from advancing further.

Correspondent Innocent Onoh spoke with Umar Danladi Dahiru, the Executive Director of the Africa Desertification Control Initiative, who sheds some light on issues related to desert encroachment in Northern Nigeria, including the scale of devastation and practical ways of protecting the region.

Umar Danladi Dahiru
Umar Danladi Dahiru

Can you explain the phenomenon “desertification”?

Desertification, which is defined by United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as “land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activities,” poses serious threats to economic and social wellbeing of humans and biodiversity in general.

The problem of desertification can only be controlled but can never be stopped as it is the result of the combination of natural and anthropogenic factors.

Natural factors such as poor physical condition of the soil and extreme climatic variability causes desertification in dry lands. Soils in the desert areas (an area which has lost or is losing its biological potentials) are mostly sandy in nature and therefore do not have the capacity to retain moisture and have poor organic matter content to support plant growth. It is also a fact that most areas in the North Eastern and North Western Nigeria record a very low amount of annual rainfall, in some areas it is below 300mm per annum in addition to poor distribution of rainfall.

 

How vulnerable are Nigerians and indeed Africans to the rampaging desert?

A lot of Nigerians and indeed many Africans are highly vulnerable to the devastating effects of this environmental monster called desertification. The desert is fast encroaching agricultural and grazing lands from the Sahara Desert in the Northern part of Africa. Loss of productive land is on the increase, forcing the inhabitants of these areas to migrate to other parts that hasn’t been affected.

This issue has brought about prevalence of diseases, economic, political and social instability in the region.

About 1/3 of the earth’s surface is being threatened by desertification that is about 400 million hectares (Ha) of land or nearly 40 million square kilometres.

So, 12 million hectares of this fragile, non-renewable, common wealth (fertile soil) that provide us with food is lost every year due to desertification.

In Nigeria, various forms of land degradation account for the loss of over 21,000sq km of arable land annually to desertification which encroaches fast into the northern region of the country from the Sahara Desert.

 

At what rate is the desert advancing down South?

To the best of my knowledge, the specific rate at which desert is encroaching Nigerian land is not known, as there isn’t any reliable study to prove that. But, obviously, it is coming at a very fast rate.

It has been practically observed that the desert is encroaching at a very alarming speed in most African countries. The most noticeable causal agents are climate change and human activities in form of indiscriminate felling of trees, bush burning, poor land management practices, etc. The demand for energy and other human needs have made people go beyond the limit of exploiting forest resources. This consequently exposes the environment to agents of denudation like strong winds and running water which further degrade the environment and set the stage for desertification.

 

Is it possible to completely secure Nigeria’s territory from the desert?

It is not possible to secure the Nigerian territory or any other country’s territory from being encroached by the desert. Desertification does not require “visa” to cross from one country to another. It is a natural phenomenon which is also highly influenced by anthropogenic factors.

Natural factors such as poor physical condition of the soil and extreme climatic variability cause desertification in dry lands. Soils in the desert areas (an area which has lost or is losing its biological potentials) are mostly sandy in nature and therefore do not have the capacity to retain moisture and have poor organic matter content to support plant growth. It is also a fact that most areas in the North Eastern and North Western Nigeria record a very low amount of annual rainfall; in some areas it is below 300mm per annum in addition to poor distribution of rainfall.

So you can see that It can never be stopped completely, but can only be controlled.

However, to check it, we should imbibe the culture of planting and maintaining trees and also put a stop to indiscriminate felling of trees, while government on its part should provide simple and affordable alternative sources of energy like the coal stove, solar cookers and improved wood stoves, and at the same time enforce stringent measures to protect our fragile forest resources, all in an effort to mitigate climate change for sustainable development. Looking at the rate at which the desert is encroaching, we encourage people to plant and maintain at least three trees every year in an effort to make the environment better and also combat land degradation for sustainable agriculture.

As we know trees use some of the GHG like carbon dioxide to manufacture food and give out clean oxygen air for use by humans and animals. It is also a known fact that areas with denser forest cover have a higher rate of rainfall than areas with limited tree cover.

 

What is your take on the Great Green Wall programme?

The Great Green Wall initiative is a Pan-African programme that involves the planting of trees from Djibouti to Senegal. It has a lot of rural development components that are aimed at changing the lives of people in these areas because, in the modern techniques of combating desertification, you cannot combat desertification without fighting poverty. They go hand in hand.

In view of this, it is worthy to commend the efforts of the 11 African countries (Djibouti, Eretria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Senegal) and African Union (AU) to establish the GGW, which is 7,775 kilometres in length, 15 kilometres wide, covering a total area of 11,662,500 hectares of land. The GGW is aimed at limiting desertification of the Sahel zone from Djibouti in the Horn of Africa in the east, across the continent to Dakar, Senegal, in the west. The Nigerian government flagged-off its component of the Great Green Wall recently at Bachaka Town in Kebbi State and made provision of sourcing and planting 10 million tree seedlings that year in an effort to ensure the success of the programme.

 

Can you attempt an assessment of the GGW’s progress in Nigeria?

The Nigerian component of the Great Green Wall initiative has actually started on a very sound footing. But somewhere, somehow, there are many abandoned projects that are aimed at changing the lives of these people.

 

What then is the way forward?

It is necessary for the Nigerian government to do a review of the GGW initiative, and take urgent steps to address the lapses which has been identified. You cannot fight desertification without fighting poverty. It is therefore my advice to the government and all stakeholders to put hands on deck to tackle this issue.

 

What does the Africa Desertification Control Initiative stand for?

The Africa Desertification Control Initiative is a non-governmental organisation (NGO) established to build the capacity of vulnerable rural Africans living in the desert areas and to also create awareness on the dangers associated with this form of land degradation with a view to finding remediation to the problem as well as to provide professional consulting service to relevant stakeholders. among other objectives.

 

What has been the role of your organisation in checking desert in Nigeria?

To a very large extent, we have sensitised so many Nigerians in this respect, in addition to training of people on the modern techniques of desert combating via locally organised training workshops and seminars. We have also facilitated the training of over 20 Nigerian experts on desertification control in China, Turkey, India and Israel, which has boosted our capacity in dealing with desertification control. Our NGO was also a partner in the UNEP-China-Africa programme on environment. On several occasions we have also raised and distributed tree seedlings to people.

Seven rich cities of the future

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Forget New York, London or Hong Kong. Here are seven cities that are racing up the rankings of the world’s richest, and will be among the top 10 by 2025, according to researchers from the McKinsey Global Institute.

Doha, Qatar
Doha, Qatar

Doha, Qatar

Qatar’s Doha is predicted to be one of the rising stars in terms of per capita GDP. The country is already among the richest in the world, and huge investments ahead of the 2022 Soccer World Cup are set to give it extra boost.

 

 

Bergen, Norway
Bergen, Norway

Bergen, Norway

Bergen is the second most populous city in Norway.

It is already at the forefront of the country’s economy, but McKinsey’s researchers predict it will rise to become one of the richest cities globally. It serves as the hub for Norway’s energy industry, shipping, and marine research.

 

Trondheim, Norway
Trondheim, Norway

Trondheim, Norway

Another Norwegian city on the list, Trondheim is the birthplace of mobile tech. It is where the GSM standard was invented in the 1980s.

Since then, the local tech scene has been booming, and now boasts over 550 startups with more than 10,000 employees, according to officials.

 

Hwaseong, South Korea
Hwaseong, South Korea

Hwaseong, South Korea

Hwaseong, although not widely known outside South Korea, is a booming city south of Seoul. It’s home to the global research facilities of Hyundai (HYMTF) and Samsung (SSNLF), as well as flagship plants for Kia and LG Electronics.

The city is investing heavily in new residential real estate in the super modern Dongtan district.

 

Asan, South Korea
Asan, South Korea

Asan, South Korea

Like its neighbour Hwaseong, Asan is home to several large industrial complexes.

It also benefits from being near the port of Pyeongtaek, which is the closest port to east China, and a global shipping hub.

 

 

Rhine-Ruhr, Germany
Rhine-Ruhr, Germany

Rhine-Ruhr, Germany

Rhine-Ruhr is already one of the most successful urban areas in Germany. It’s the third largest in Europe, trailing only Paris and London.

Many powerhouses of German industry and finance are based in the region, including 12 Fortune 500 companies.

 

Macau, China
Macau, China

Macau, China

Macau is an example of how quickly things can change. Tipped to become one of the 10 richest cities in the world by 2025, Macau suffered a huge recession at the end of last year.

Its economy slumped 17% after an anti-corruption drive hurt Macau’s casinos, the main driver of the territory’s economy. Growth is expected to return next year, but experts say Macau must find other sources of income to recover its momentum.

The ranking is based on GDP per capita. McKinsey’s top 10 cities by 2025 also include Oslo (Norway), Yosu (South Korea) and San Jose (California).

By Ivana Kottasova (CNN Money)

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