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Hong Kong votes to impose domestic ivory ban by 2021

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The Hong Kong Legislative Council on Wednesday, January 31, 2018 voted to pass a bill that will end local ivory trade in Hong Kong, with no compensation for ivory dealers, and an increase of maximum penalties for wildlife crimes of up to 10 years imprisonment.

Ivory trafficking
Ivory trafficking. Photo credit: girlegirlarmy.com

This decision will bring to a close a trade that had once brought the city notoriety as the world’s foremost supplier of worked ivory products in the 1970s and 1980s.

“Today’s decision is another milestone for the conservation of elephants, and should serve as further encouragement for governments in the region to put an end to the domestic ivory markets that fuel the poaching crisis,” said James Compton, TRAFFIC’s Senior Programme Director, Asia Pacific. “Hong Kong’s legislators should be congratulated for choosing to stand on the right side of history.”

However, concerns remain that the closure of Hong Kong’s ivory markets will be implemented in phases between now and 2021. With immediate effect, the amended law will ban the trade in elephant trophies, while an end to ivory imports and exports will follow three months after the law comes into effect. Commercial trade of ivory within the territory can continue until the end of 2021, after which all ivory trading will cease, with the exception of the antiques trade in ivory carved before the year 1925.

This leaves a gap of four years between the closure of ivory markets in Hong Kong and mainland China, with the latter having shut down all of its registered ivory outlets at the end of 2017.

“Hong Kong and mainland China’s ivory markets have long been closely linked, but the disparity in policies between them could lead to the perception of Hong Kong as an open store in the midst of a curfew,” said Tom Milliken, TRAFFIC’s Elephant and Rhino Programme Leader. “Close regulation and monitoring is essential to prevent any laundering of ivory to the still open markets in Hong Kong, which would seriously undermine efforts in mainland China to implement its ivory trade ban.”

TRAFFIC’s recently published report Closing Strategy: ending ivory trade in Hong Kong encouraged the Hong Kong SAR Government to implement measures to elevate its capacity to tackle ivory trafficking, including co-operation with other law enforcement agencies, especially in mainland China, to boost investigation and real-time intelligence sharing.

“It is more important than ever to remain vigilant of illegal trade activities on both Hong Kong and mainland China,” said Compton. “Authorities should take advantage the passage of this bill, which imparts the full force of the law to support enforcement actions in Hong Kong.”

TRAFFIC’s recent report also recommended a rapid implementation of an ivory ban alongside measures to improve oversight, record-keeping and transparency of the trade in registered ivory, of which latest figures from the government suggests there are still 64 tonnes remaining in the territory. Measures include the need for labelling of ivory products and display of licence notices to be strictly enforced to minimise confusion for consumers about the legitimacy of ivory products and outlets. Active monitoring of the trade is encouraged with monthly reporting of transactions by licensed ivory dealers, as well as increased transparency through annual publishing of data from the government on Hong Kong’s remaining ivory stockpiles.

Punjab government’s ban on sale of toxic pesticides lauded

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The Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare of the government of Punjab on Tuesday, January 30, 2018 issued directions to discontinue the sale of 20 pesticides (insecticides) which are harmful to health of humans and environment with immediate effect. It also directed not to issue any fresh licenses for these pesticides.

Chandra Bhushan
Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)

Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has welcomed this move and urged similar necessary action by the central government.

Expressing CSE’s reaction to this move, Chandra Bhushan, deputy director general of the New Delhi-based think tank, said: “We are pleased to know about this much needed step. If a state like Punjab, which is a high pesticide user state and dependent on pesticides, acts in the interest of public health, it is incumbent on the Central government to take necessary steps to eliminate sale of highly toxic pesticides in the entire country.”

The pesticides banned in Punjab include Phosphamidion, Methomyl, Phorate, Triazophos and Monocrotophos,  which are considered class I pesticides by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and are further categorised into extremely hazardous (class Ia) and highly hazardous (class Ib) to human health. Many of these are banned in several countries. For example, Phosphamidon is banned in 49 countries, Phorate in 37, Triazophos in 40 and Monocrotophos is banned in 60 countries.

But India still allows use of these five along with several other class I pesticides. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer’s Welfare, based on a 2015 review by the Anupam Verma Committee, through an order of December 2016, planned to ban only three out of these five and that too, starting from 2021.

“We must address the issue of class I pesticides. These account for about 30 per cent of the total insecticide use in our country. The government action in this regard has been largely inadequate so far,” points out Amit Khurana, senior programme manager, Food Safety and Toxins team, CSE.

In the wake of ill-effects of pesticides and deaths related to it in our country, CSE has been advocating for a ban on class I pesticides and a pesticide management bill which fills gaps in laws and strengthens enforcement.

Millions of children in crisis zones face ‘bleak future,’ UN warns

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Children are the most vulnerable when conflict or disaster causes the collapse of essential services such as healthcare and unless the international community takes urgent action to protect and provide life-saving assistance to them, “they face an increasingly bleak future,” the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned Tuesday, January 30, 2018 while launching a $3.6 billion emergency appeal.

Children
Displaced children in a camp in Nigeria. Photo credit: Yahoo News

According to UNICEF, approximately 48 million children across 51 countries are caught up in war zones, natural disasters and other dire emergencies that continue to deepen in complexity, bringing new waves of violence, displacement and disruption into their lives.

Children cannot wait for wars to be brought to an end, with crises threatening the immediate survival and long term future of children and young people on a catastrophic scale,” said UNICEF’s Director of Emergency Programmes, Manuel Fontaine, citing the devastating impact on children living amid years-long or cyclical violence in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen, among others

UNICEF said that almost one in four children live in a country affected by conflict or disaster and has therefore set aside about 84 per cent of its appeal (over $3 billion) these zones.

Destruction of schools, hospitals and health and sanitation systems due to violence has meant that the spread of water-borne diseases is now one of the greatest threats to children’s lives in crises.

Girls and women face additional threats, as they often fulfil the role of collecting water for their families in dangerous situations.

“(Some) 117 million people living through emergencies lack access to safe water and in many countries affected by conflict, more children die from diseases caused by unclean water and poor sanitation than from direct violence,” said Mr. Fontaine.

“Without access to safe water and sanitation, children fall ill, and are often unable to be treated as hospitals and health centres either do not function or are overcrowded. The threat is even greater as millions of children face life-threatening levels of malnutrition, making them more susceptible to water-borne diseases like cholera, creating a vicious cycle of undernutrition and disease,” he added

The largest chunk of UNICEF’s 2018 appeal, amounting to $1.3 billion is earmarked for supporting nearly seven million Syrian children both inside the war-torn country – where the conflict will soon enter its eight year – as well as those forced to become refugees outside its borders.

Globally, the UN agency aims to reach 35.7 million people with access to safe water, 8.9 million children with formal or non-formal basic education, 10 million children with immunisation against measles, 3.9 million children with psychosocial support, and 4.2 million children with treatment for severe acute malnutrition.

As the leading humanitarian agency on water, sanitation and hygiene in emergencies, UNICEF provided over half of the emergency water, sanitation and hygiene services in humanitarian crises around the world. It also helped hospitals and medical centres treat deadly diseases and repaired water and sanitation systems.

In the first 10 months of 2017, UNICEF provided almost 30 million people with access to safe water, 13.6 million children with vaccination against measles, 5.5 million children with some form of education, 2.5 million children with treatment for severe acute malnutrition and 2.8 million children with psycho-social support.

States, regions lead on Paris climate ambition

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report released on Monday, January 29, 2018 by the Under2 Coalition showcases how member jurisdictions around the world are developing world-leading policies to accelerate global climate action. The Climate Group acts as secretariat to the Under2Coalition.

Christiana Figueres
Christiana Figueres, Global Ambassador for the Under2 Coalition

Under2 Coalition highlights – 2017” summarises the last 12 months of activity from the pioneering Coalition, which now encompasses 205 governments representing more than 1.3 billion people and almost 40% of the global economy, who have committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.

The report shows how the voice of state and regional governments is growing ever more powerful through Coalition activities – in particular at the COP23 global climate talks, where Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, was appointed Global Ambassador for the Under2 Coalition.

“In 2018, the Under2 Coalition is positioned to both contribute to direct emissions reductions and to support and inspire more ambitious climate goals from national governments,” says Tim Ash Vie, Director, Under2 Coalition Secretariat, The Climate Group. “It is a fundamental tenet of the Under2 Coalition that while national governments negotiated the Paris Agreement, state and regional leaders are central to delivering the goal of limiting global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius.”

The Under2 Coalition is also helping developing and emerging states and regions share their experiences thanks to the Future Fund, which helps governments speak with a unified voice during international climate gatherings.

However, “we also know that if we are to close the ‘emissions gap’, the level of ambition must step up in the next year,” underlines Tim Ash Vie. This is why this year’s Annual General Meeting will be held alongside the Global Climate Action Summit in California, which takes place on September 12-14 in San Francisco, to showcase the Coalition’s successes and continue to inspire other governments to follow this path.

The Under2 Coalition will also play a pivotal role during Climate Week NYC 2018, which will be held on September 24-30 in New York City. Celebrating its 10th anniversary, this leading global climate platform will be a key milestone to ramp up national climate pledges before 2020, when the Paris Agreement will need to increase its ambition to deliver an under 2°C world.

We disposed 17,440 tonnes of waste in 2017, says Jigawa EPA

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The Jigawa State Environmental Protection Agency (JISEPA) says it collected and disposed 17,440 tonnes of waste across the 26 Local Government Areas of the state in 2017.

Mohammed-Badaru-Abubakar
Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, Governor of Jigawa State

Acting Managing Director of JISEPA, Alhaji Umar Amadu, said this in an interview with News Agency of Nigerian (NAN) in Dutse, the state capital, on Tuesday, January 30, 2018.

Amadu said that the exercise was part of the proactive measures put in place by the state government to promote effective waste management and sanitation in urban and rural communities.

He said that the policy was also aimed at improving public health and hygiene in the state.

“The exercise involved collection of refuse from streets and markets as well as clearance of drainage channels and cutting of grasses in boarding schools,’’ he said.

The acting managing director said that the agency would continue to sensitise the public to the need to always keep their surroundings clean and imbibe good sanitary habits.

Amadu urged the people to cooperate with the agency in its efforts to keep the state clean, while desisting from arbitrary dumping of waste in residential areas and waterways.

He commended the state government for its support to agency.

“We really thank the state government for providing us with all the needed equipment, manpower and logistics for the smooth conduct of our assignment.

“We are assuring the people that we will continue to do our best to ensure that the residents live in a good and healthy environment,” he added.

NAN recalls that the agency reportedly collected and disposed 26,420 tonnes of waste across the state in 2016.

Stakeholders urge forest certification system to drive wood export

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Stakeholders have called on the Federal Government to put in place adequate forest certification system for Nigeria to benefit from the growing international demand for tropical wood.

England forest
Stakeholders have underlined the need for adequate forest certification system for the country

The stakeholders made the call in a final draft of “Country Report on National Forest Investment Programme’’ which was made available to News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Tuesday, January 30, 2018 in Abuja.

NAN reports that the stakeholders were drawn from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), the ECOWAS Commission, Federal Department of Forestry and Federal Ministry of the Environment.

According to the document, lack of forest certification system is a major drawback in the export drive for Nigeria’s tropical hardwood.

It said that recent report indicated that global demand for woods had outstripped sustainable supply.

The report estimated that by the year 2020, the projected level of wood demand would be 180 million cubic metre against a sustainable level of supply of less than 100 cubic metre.

It said that Nigeria had not featured favourably on the global wood supply list due to the high rate of deforestation and unstable forest harvest and stressed the need to add value to timber export trade in the country.

Nigeria would need to establish over 60,000 hectares of new wood fuel plantations and another 10,000 hectares of industrial forest plantations yearly until 2030 to be part of the growth.

“The proximate drivers are conversion of forest lands, unsustainable management and bush burning, amongst others.

“The indirect causes include policy failure, obsolete forest laws, lack of implementation of existing laws and political will, compliance mechanism, poverty and insecure land tenure,’’ the report said.

It said further that the growth of the forestry sector was also affected by inefficient market and forest production activities and unfavourable economy.

The report called for an urgent need to address the underlying policies, governance framework and institutional capacity for a healthy forestry sector.

It also called for a review of the 2006 National Forest Policy to incorporate contemporary national and global issues.

“The review will offer the opportunity to create better enabling environment to meet local, national and global imperatives for sustainable management of forest resources.

“The pertinent issues to be addressed will include environmental and safeguards, tree ownership and forest institutional arrangements.

“The process of the review will also develop the mechanism to assist states and develop new forest policies,’’ it said.

New atlas on Africa’s energy potential launched

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Africa could see its energy shortfall significantly improved with the launch of a map showing the continent’s rich resource potentials and opportunities for investors in especially renewable energy exploitation.

IRENA
Africa’s renewable energy resources are diverse, unevenly distributed and enormous in quantity. Photo credit: IRENA

The new atlas, launched on Tuesday, January 30, 2018 in Abidjan, Cote D’Ivoire, by the UN Environment (UNEP) and African Development Bank (AfDB), shows energy exploitation hot spots in the continent and some opportunities up for grabs for investors in the sector.

Prepared in cooperation with the Environment Pulse Institute, United States Geological Survey and George Mason University, the atlas consolidates the information on the energy landscape in Africa. It provides information in the form of detailed “before and after” images, charts, maps and other satellite data from 54 countries through visuals detailing the challenges and opportunities in Africa.

“The atlas makes a strong case that investments in green energy infrastructure can bolster Africa’s economic development and bring it closer to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals,” said Juliette Biao Koudenoukpo, Director and Regional Representative, UN Environment, Africa Office.

“It is an important policy guide for African governments as they strive to catalyse national development by making use of their energy resources,” she added.

The atlas shows both the potential and the fragility of the continent’s energy resources which are at the heart of Africa’s socio-economic development.  It highlights some success stories of sustainable energy development around the continent, but it also puts the spotlight on major environmental challenges associated with energy infrastructure development.

The report accompanying the launch notes that Africa is endowed with enormous renewable and non-renewable resources that can be tapped by investors to boost economic development and fight against poverty.

Investments in green energy infrastructure can bolster Africa’s economic development and bring it closer to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, the report says.

Energy consumption in Africa is the lowest in the world, and per capita consumption has barely changed since 2000 shows.

Some useful findings contained in the atlas include; that the poorest African households spend 20 times more per unit of energy than wealthy households when connected to the grid.

It also revealed that Africa has the world’s lowest per capita energy consumption: with 16 per cent of the world’s population (1.18 billion people out of 7.35 billion) it consumes about 3.3 per cent of global primary energy.

With current trends, it will take Africa until 2080 to achieve full access to electricity.

Of all energy sources, Africa consumes most oil (42 per cent of its total energy consumption) followed by gas (28 per cent), coal (22 per cent), hydro (six per cent), renewable energy (one per cent) and nuclear (one per cent).

South Africa is the world’s seventh largest coal producer and accounts for 94 per cent of Africa’s coal production.

Africa’s renewable energy resources are diverse, unevenly distributed and enormous in quantity – almost unlimited solar potential (10 TW), abundant hydro (350 GW), wind (110 GW) and geothermal energy sources (15 GW).

Nearly 60 per cent of refrigerators used in health clinics in Africa have unreliable electricity, compromising the safe storage of vaccines and medicines; half of vaccines are ruined due to lack of refrigeration.

Energy from biomass accounts for more than 30 per cent of the energy consumed in Africa and more than 80 per cent in many sub-Saharan African countries. It is estimated that indoor pollution from biomass cooking – a task usually carried out by women – will soon kill more people than malaria and HIV/AIDS combined.

Sub-Saharan Africa has undiscovered, but technically recoverable, energy resources estimated at about 115.34 billion barrels of oil and 21.05 trillion cubic metres of gas.

More women than men suffer from energy poverty.

Courtesy: PAMACC News Agency

Bamako Convention: Preventing Africa from becoming a dumping ground for toxic wastes

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African nations have long been at the centre of incidents involving hazardous waste dumping. From the leaking barrels of toxic waste in Koko, Nigeria in 1988 and the Probo Koala scandal in Cote d’Ivoire in 2006, to the current piles of e-waste threatening the health of West African communities; the continent continues to be disproportionally affected by the dumping of harmful chemical materials.

Koko waste
Toxic waste containers. Over 2,000 drums, sacks, and containers full of hazardous wastes were dumped in Koko, a small fishing village in southern Nigeria, in 1988

In an effort to prevent incidents such as “Koko” and “Probo Koala” from happening again, and to reinforce existing international treaties surrounding the shipment and disposal of hazardous waste – as established in the Basel Convention and Bamako Convention – African States have come together for the second Conference of the Parties (COP2) to the Bamako Convention.

The conference holds from Tuesday, January 30 to Thursday, February 1, 2018 in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire. While pursuing the objectives of the Convention, COP2 has been designed as a platform to discuss ways and means of ensuring that the continent rids itself of hazardous wastes and contribute to the achievement of a pollution-free planet.

“We have a collective responsibility to safeguard communities from the environmental and health consequences of hazardous waste dumping,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, Deputy Executive Director of UN Environment. “The creation of regional Public-Private Partnerships could lead to the creation of adequate facilities to manage hazardous waste internally generated in Africa. Previous experiences have led us to establish these international treaties around chemical waste, and together we must ensure they continue to be adhered to.”

The Basel Convention, established in 1989, prevents the shipment and disposal of hazardous waste from industrial to developing countries. This international treaty establishes a procedure of strict requirements and consents of any transboundary movement of hazardous waste.

To complement the Basel Convention, African Nations established the Bamako Convention in 1991. The Convention, which came into force in 1998, is aimed at protecting the health of populations and the environment of African countries through a ban on the import of all hazardous and radioactive wastes. It also prohibits the dumping or incineration of hazardous wastes in oceans and inland waters, and promotes the minimisation and control of trans- boundary movements of hazardous wastes within the African continent. The Convention also aims to improve and ensure ecologically rational management and handling of hazardous waste within Africa, as well as the cooperation between African nations.

“It is expected that at COP-2 of the Bamako Convention, Parties will reaffirm their engagement for an effective implementation of the Convention including establishing synergies with other international treaties,” said Julliette Biao Koudenoukpo, Regional Director and UN Environment Representative in Africa.

“Parties are also expected to identify mechanisms and financial resources to implement the Convention,” she added.

The first Conference of the Parties (COP-1) to the Convention took place from June 24 to 26, 2013 in Bamako Mali. One of the outcomes of this Conference is a declaration by African Ministers of Environment in which they state their determination “to prevent Africa from becoming a dumping ground for toxic wastes through an effective implementation of the Bamako Convention”. The declaration further states that “the import of hazardous waste into Africa is a crime against humanity” and commit “to prompt action to overcome barriers to effective management and minimization of waste in Africa through increased knowledge on waste scenarios in order to prevent harm to health and environment.”

 

Probo Koala incident

In 2006, a Panama-registered cargo tanker, chartered by Trafigura, a commodities trading multinational, dumped over 500 cubic meters of highly toxic waste in Abidjan, killing 17 people and poisoning thousands.

 

Koko, Nigeria incident

In 1988, Italian businessmen illegally dumped over 2,000 drums, sacks, and containers full of hazardous wastes in a small fishing village in southern Nigeria. The waste was claimed by the dealer to be fertilisers that would help poor farmers, but instead it turned into a nightmare. Few months later the containers started leaking causing stomach upset, headache, failing sight and death to the local community. The area around the dumpsite was rendered inhabitable and 500 residents were evacuated. People in the Koko village still remember this accident as “drums of death”.

Bamako Convention: COP2 begins in Abidjan

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The Second Session of the Conference of the Parties to the Bamako Convention (also known COP2) kicked off on Tuesday, January 30, 2018 in Abidjan, the capital city of Cote d’Ivoire.

Aida Keita M'bo
Mme Aida Keita M’bo, President of the COP and Malian Minister for Environment, Sanitation and Sustainable Development

The conference, which holds under the theme: “The Bamako Convention: a platform for a pollution-free Africa”, will be rounded up on Thursday, February 1, 2018.

“COP2 aspires to provide a platform to discuss ways and means of ensuring that the continent rids itself of hazardous wastes and contribute to the achievement of a pollution-free planet,” says Mme Aida Keita M’bo, President of the COP and Malian Minister for Environment, Sanitation and Sustainable Development.

Host Minister and Ivoirian Minister for Public Health, Environment and Sustainable Development, Mme Anne Désirée Ouloto, urged her colleagues to work towards a COP2 outcome that will “prevent Africa from becoming a dumping ground for toxic wastes through an effective implementation of the Bamako Convention”.

“The importation of hazardous waste into Africa is a crime against humanity and we must commit to prompt action aimed at overcoming barriers to effective management and minimisation of waste in Africa through increased knowledge on waste scenarios in order to prevent harm to health and environment,” Mme Ouloto added.

“We have a collective responsibility to safeguard communities from the environmental and health consequences of hazardous waste dumping,” said Ibrahim Thiaw, Deputy Executive Director of UN Environment.

“Africa is not the dustbin of the world,” Thiaw added while reinstating UN Environment’s commitment to a pollution-free world.

 

From Basel to Bamako Convention

The Bamako Convention is a treaty of African nations prohibiting the importation of any hazardous (including radioactive) waste into Africa.

The convention which came into force in 1998  is a response to Article 11 of the Basel convention which encourages parties to enter into bilateral, multilateral and regional agreements on Hazardous Waste to help achieve the objectives of the convention.

African Nations established the Bamako Convention in 1991 to complement the Basel Convention.

The Convention, which came into force in 1998, is aimed at protecting the health of populations and the environment of African countries through a ban on the import of all hazardous and radioactive wastes.

It also prohibits the dumping or incineration of hazardous wastes in oceans and inland waters, and promotes the minimisation and control of trans-boundary movements of hazardous wastes within the African continent.

The Convention also aims to improve and ensure ecologically rational management and handling of hazardous waste within Africa, as well as the cooperation between African nations.

Courtesy: PAMACC News Agency

Coal phase-out: Announcing CO2-pricing triggers divestment

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Putting the Paris climate agreement into practice will trigger opposed reactions by investors on the one hand and fossil fuel owners on the other hand. It has been feared that the anticipation of strong CO2 reduction policies might – a “green paradox” – drive up these emissions: before the regulations kick in, fossil fuel owners might accelerate their resource extraction to maximise profits. Yet at the same time, investors might stop putting their money into coal power plants as they can expect their assets to become stranded.

Nico Bauer
Nico Bauer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Now for the first time a study investigates both effects that to date have been discussed only separately. On balance, divestment beats the green paradox if substantial carbon pricing is credibly announced, a team of energy economists finds. Consequently, overall CO2emissions would be effectively reduced.

“Strong future climate policies can reduce emissions even before they come into effect if they are credibly announced,” says lead-author Nico Bauer from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

While the Paris agreement is weak in short-term policy ambition, with close to 200 countries committing themselves to limit temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, it will require strong climate policies in the future to reduce emissions over the longer term.

“We find that 10 years before carbon pricing policies are actually introduced, investors start pulling their money out of the coal power sector,” says Bauer. “They shy away from investing in fossil fueled power plants as they realise that the lifetime during which these plants will make money will be curtailed by the future climate policy. We find this divestment reduces emissions by between five to 20 percent, depending on the strength of the climate policy, already in the time before the climate policy gets implemented.”

 

“A price of $20 per ton CO2 doubles the cost of using coal”

Coal is particularly susceptible to carbon pricing. “Adding a carbon price of 20 US-dollars per ton of CO2 doubles the cost of using coal,” says co-author Christophe McGlade from University College London (UCL) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). “Power sector investors see that coal power plants will become uncompetitive under carbon pricing and so shift their portfolios towards low-carbon sources of electricity.”

McGlade adds: “Oil is much less sensitive to carbon pricing. While we found that the green paradox effect can emerge in oil markets – with major oil resource holders boosting oil production because of fears their resources will be left stranded – this is likely to be much smaller than the divestment effect that reduces coal use.”

Computer simulations of energy markets’ future dynamics are commonly used to investigate the economic effects of policies.

“We ran our simulations with a variety of CO2 pricing levels, steadily reaching between 25 and $300 per ton CO2 by 2050, with a medium scenario reaching $100. These taxes were introduced with a number of different delays to represent various degrees of climate policy stringency and credibility and see how fossil fuel markets react in anticipation of such climate policies,” says co-author Jérôme Hilaire from PIK and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC).

He adds: “This is to account for uncertainties, but the divestment effect prevails over the green paradox effect in almost all tax cases investigated regardless of the implementation delay, and therefore decreases overall emissions. Only if CO2 pricing starts very late, for example not before 2050, and then at a very low level, anticipation by market forces leads to an increase in CO2 emissions instead of a decrease.”

 

Pricing emissions in China, the EU, UK, Canada, and even in California

“Our results hinge on some crucial assumptions – that policymakers can commit to introducing strong climate policies several years into the future, that the carbon pricing is uniform across regions, that investors believe the policy-makers will do what they say they will do, and that investors are shrewd in adapting their investment strategies accordingly,” says co-author Paul Ekins from UCL, who is also a member of the European Union Commission’s High-Level Panel on Decarbonisation Pathways.

If different CO2 pricing regulations at different price levels were to be introduced in different countries, the authors find that while some emissions-intensive production facilities move from places of high regulation to those with low standards, this effect is limited.

“CO2 emissions pricing schemes are emerging in China, the EU is currently in the processes of fixing its trading scheme, and CO2 prices are in place in the UK, in Chile, in Canada, and even in California, the sixth-largest economy in the world. The Paris agreement delivered a strong signal that policy makers take climate change seriously and are ready and willing to deliver on the necessary emissions reductions. By anticipating the implementation of policies to tackle climate change, market forces will likely reduce emissions, helping us on the first step towards achieving deep emissions reductions – as long as the policy signals are strong, clear and credible.”

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