Some economic and energy experts have commended the Dangote Refinery for its ambitious plan to expand its refining capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.

They said the move would place Nigeria on the path to achieving full self-sufficiency in petroleum products, conserve foreign exchange, and enhance fuel affordability for ordinary citizens.

They spoke in separate interviews in Lagos on Sunday, November 9, 2025, following the announcement of the expansion by the Dangote Group President, Alhaji Aliko Dangote.

Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the move as a landmark step in Nigeria’s industrial development.

He said the refinery expansion represents an uncommon level of foresight and confidence in the nation’s economy, adding that it would position Nigeria as a hub for refined petroleum products in Africa.

“We should be proud that a Nigerian of such stature has demonstrated the capacity and courage to ensure that our country becomes self-reliant in refined petroleum,” Yusuf said.

According to him, the expansion would enable the refinery not only to meet Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand but also to export more products to global markets, strengthening the country’s foreign reserves.

Yusuf said the project would also boost the country’s macroeconomic stability by reducing the huge amount of foreign exchange previously spent on the importation of refined petroleum.

“Before now, Nigeria expended about 30 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings on fuel imports. This expansion will help conserve a substantial portion of that,” he explained.

He noted that the refinery’s operations would extend beyond fuel production, adding that its by-products, such as polypropylene, would serve as vital inputs for local industries.

“Polypropylene is a key raw material for the plastic industry, and over 80 per cent of our packaging materials are made from plastics. The benefits are enormous,” he added.

Yusuf said the refinery’s growing capacity would strengthen Nigeria’s industrial base, attract new investments, and create a positive global perception of the country’s economic potential.

“This is a good optic for the Nigerian economy and a signal that African investors can achieve global standards. Dangote has become a reference point for continental industrialisation,” he said.

Similarly, Dr Ayodele Oni, Partner and Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Practice Group at Bloomfield, described the refinery expansion as a “bold and transformative industrial venture.”

He said the establishment of such a large complex within Nigeria would promote local content, create jobs, and stimulate technological advancement in the energy sector.

“It is a good thing to have such a large-scale industrial project in Nigeria. It enhances the capacity of our businesses to compete internationally,” Oni said.

However, he noted that legitimate concerns exist about the possible emergence of monopolistic dominance within the sector.

“There are always concerns around monopoly, and rightly so. This is why state regulators like the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission must be effective and proactive,” he said.

Oni added that it would be unjust to criticise Dangote for taking calculated risks in a difficult business environment where many investors have often shied away.

“It would also be unfair to deny him the benefits of his huge investment. What matters is ensuring fairness, transparency, and open competition,” Oni said.

Also, Mr. Boniface Okezie, President of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, lauded Dangote for demonstrating consistency and ambition in expanding the refinery’s capacity.

He said the development was an indication of confidence in Nigeria’s economy and a reflection of the growing participation of indigenous investors in large-scale projects.

Okezie, however, urged the Dangote Group to prioritise domestic consumption over export, stressing that Nigeria’s energy needs remain enormous and largely underserved.

“Charity should begin at home. The immediate focus should be on meeting domestic fuel demand rather than rushing to export to recoup investment,” Okezie said.

He argued that projects of such scale often require patience before yielding financial returns, adding that Dangote should place emphasis on affordability for Nigerians.

“These kinds of investments take time before they begin to yield profit. Emphasis should be on affordable pricing for local consumers,” he added.

Okezie also called on the Federal Government to support other domestic investors who had secured licences to build refineries, noting that they need incentives to thrive.

“Government should grant incentives to local businesses that are licensed to build refineries so they can compete effectively and contribute to price reduction,” he said.

He said increased participation by private investors would promote healthy competition, create jobs, and make fuel pricing more stable in the long term.

The Dangote Refinery recently announced plans to expand its facility from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.

Dangote made the announcement at a press briefing in Lagos, describing the expansion as a strategic move to boost global refining capacity.

The president of Dangote Group said the project would make the refinery the largest in the world, surpassing several established plants in Asia and the Middle East.

According to him, construction work on the expansion is expected to commence without delay, signalling another major milestone for Nigeria’s industrial landscape.

He said the refinery’s expansion would further enhance Africa’s refining capacity, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, and position Nigeria as a key energy exporter.

Dangote added that the group remained committed to driving economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and supporting the government’s quest for industrial transformation.

By Simon Akoje