The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday, October 24, 2023, reaffirmed limiting planetary warming to 1.5 C in the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) Report, by promoting net-zero scenarios to eliminate energy poverty in the Global South by the end of the decade; albeit through rapid progress in wind and solar power, increased investments, and reduced costs. Despite this, fossil fuel investments have continued to grow.
One month ahead of COP28, the latest edition of the report reveals that the global energy landscape will be significantly reshaped by 2030. For the first time, the annual report – the world’s most authoritative source of energy analysis and projections – shows that this decade will be marked not only by an increased role of renewables, which will account for almost half of the global energy mix, but also by peaks in demand for oil, gas and coal, reinforcing the imperative to phase out fossil fuels, both for the sake of the global economy and the climate.
Based on a detailed analysis of current government policies around the world, WEO’s scenarios offer hope, with key findings demonstrating a clear shift towards renewable energies worldwide, particularly solar power. However, they also highlight that investment in renewables alone will not be sufficient, for two main reasons:
- Demand for fossil fuels will peak sooner than expected: Contrary to recent OPEC claims that halting the expansion of fossil fuel production “could lead to energy and economic chaos“, the WEO shows that demand for oil, gas and coal will peak earlier than expected, with the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply falling from 80% to 73% by 2030, a decline that will also affect countries such as China, which play a major role in global energy economic trends. Consequently, investments in new fossil fuel production or infrastructure run the risk of creating a supply gut and becoming stranded assets.
- Phasing out fossil fuels is inevitable to keep the 1.5 standard alive: even if, due to falling demand for fossil fuels, global energy-related CO2 emissions peak by 2025, global emissions will remain high enough to raise average global temperatures by around 2.4°C by the end of the century, well above the limit set in the Paris Agreement.
The Climate Action Network (CAN), a global network of over 1,900 civil society organisations, says it welcomes the IEA calls to boost clean renewables, significant international cooperation, and financing including the massive scale-up of public finance for the non-OECD countries.
CAN however adds that the IEA still does not support a full and rapid phase-out of all fossil fuels.
“Though downscaled, IEA still supports a speedy build-out of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil fuels, which is both unsafe and very expensive. Finally, their support for the global doubling of nuclear energy by mid-century as a zero-carbon policy is not supported, CAN continues to support a future based on 100% renewable energy without the use of nuclear,” adds the group.
Dr Stephan Singer, Senior Advisor Climate Science and Energy Policy, CAN International, says: “CAN welcomes that the IEA maintains that the 1.5 C temperature limit can be met, and primarily with an energy policy worldwide based almost entirely on renewables and energy efficiency. CAN strongly support the IEA findings that a massive move to clean and energy-efficient technologies requires massive scale-up of public funding in particular by the rich OECD nations to poorer countries. But CAN regrets that the IEA does not call for a full, fair, and rapid phase-out of all fossil fuels and a 100% renewable energy economy.”
Kaisa Kosonen, Policy Coordinator, Greenpeace: “We now have everything we need to solve this crisis, but it hinges on governments acting with the political courage to make a fast and fair plan to end climate-wrecking fossil fuels. The priority of this year’s UN Climate Conference has to be a global agreement to end the use of oil, coal, and gas urgently and fairly, starting with an immediate end to all new fossil fuel projects.”
Amiera Sawas, Head of Research, Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative: “This World Energy Outlook report once again undermines the argument according to which continued fossil fuel production is compatible with, or even necessary for, the global energy transition. For both economic and climatic reasons, phasing out fossil fuels is a necessary element of the inevitable transition.
“The IEA’s Executive Director himself asserts that it’s no longer a question of ‘if’ but of ‘how’. This is why it is necessary for governments to adopt a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, i.e., a plan to redouble international cooperation efforts to: keep 1.5 alive, prevent the economic impacts of the upcoming global energy mix, and support communities most dependent on fossil fuel production.
“This new report provides more scientific proof and guidance to decision-makers who will be meeting next month at COP28 in Dubai, as climate disasters continue to escalate. It’s time for the international community as a whole to follow the leadership of the eight countries that already support the Fossil Fuel Treaty proposal, the legal mechanism that will enable us to transform the transition into an opportunity for a safe, sustainable and fair future for all.”
Rachel Cleetus, policy director, Climate and Energy Programme, Union of Concerned Scientists: “The IEA report makes clear that, without concerted action by policymakers, current global energy choices are causing us to hurtle toward a dangerous 2.4-degrees-Celsius world. There are important bright spots – including a significant growth in renewable energy, especially solar power, in recent years. But coal, oil and gas use continue to expand globally, at odds with climate goals. At COP28, nations must come together to secure agreement on a fast and fair phaseout of fossil fuels, alongside a massive ramp up of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
“There must also be a strong commitment from richer nations, including the United States, to provide climate finance for developing countries to make a rapid clean energy transition. Cutting energy related heat-trapping emissions sharply within this decisive decade and beyond is crucial to limit the pace and magnitude of climate change, which is already taking a fearsome toll on people around the world.”
