On Thursday, March 5, 2026, the Pan African Vision for the Environment (PAVE) hosted a project workshop focused on zero waste ambassadors and capacity building for those involved in the waste management sector in Lagos State.
The workshop is part of the Multi-solving Action to Methane Reduction in Nigeria (MAMRN). During the event at the Ikorodu North Local Council Development Area (LCDA), Ms. Victoria Aghaji, the Senior Programmes Manager of PAVE and Project Officer for the MAMRN project, spoke on behalf of PAVE’s President, Mr. Anthony Akpan. She emphasised that the initiative aims to instill the importance of systematic waste reduction right from the source, hence promoting the zero-waste concept.
Participants at the PAVE project workshop on zero waste ambassadors
Ms. Aghaji highlighted the workshop’s relevance in addressing climate change impacts. The session, titled “A One Day Awareness and Capacity Building Workshop for Households in Ikorodu North LCDA on Organic Waste Management to Reduce Methane Emission,” stressed the significance of waste segregation to ensure nothing goes to waste.
“Created as a collaborative effort involving multiple stakeholders, MAMRN seeks to address methane emissions from organic waste by implementing community-driven, data-informed zero-waste strategies. This project highlights the crucial role of methane as a short-lived climate pollutant, emphasising the urgent need to reduce emissions through practical, inclusive, and scalable waste management solutions,” Ms. Aghaji explained.
The MAMRN project, funded by the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (GAIA) and the Green Knowledge Foundation (GKF), unites a consortium of Nigerian organisations.
Goodwill messages were delivered by representatives of various groups including the Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency (LASEPA) represented by Ms. Ogundero Adeola Christiana of the LASEPA Zonal office, Ikorodu I & II, who reiterated their enforcement roles in the protection of the environment.
Mr. Ismail Mutiu, Assistant Director, Waste-to-Energy Unit of the Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA), in his goodwill message noted the importance of establishing a solid foundation to harness the waste management value chain for economic growth and development. He mentioned that the training would significantly contribute to reducing emissions.
Additionally, Prince Adeniran Ogunbanwo, the CDC Chairman of Ikorodu North LCDA, expressed his enthusiasm for the workshop.
Participants at the workshop thanked PAVE for bringing the awareness to the LCDA and pledged their commitment in the practical deployment of learnings from the workshop.
The workshop was facilitated by Mr. Philip Jakpor, Executive Director of the Renevlyn Development Initiative (RDI).
The Multi-Solving Action to Methane Reduction in Nigeria project represents a transformative step in environmental landscape.
The workshop was hosted in Lagos with both in-person and remote participation, effectively launching the project’s second phase.
Natural bitumen, a dense, viscous, semi-solid form of petroleum composed of aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, asphaltenes, resins, sulphur compounds, and trace metals constitutes a globally significant unconventional hydrocarbon resource. Nigeria’s bitumen reserves, estimated at 42.47 billion metric tons in situ, are concentrated within the sedimentary sequences of the East Dahomey (Benin) Basin in south-western Nigeria, principally within Ondo, Ogun, Lagos, and Edo states.
Ondo State alone is reported to host the world’s second-largest bitumen deposit, with a projected market value of approximately US$17 trillion. In Canadian dollar equivalents, the Alberta oil sands, the world’s largest oil sands deposit generates approximately CAN$9–10 billion annually in economic output, underscoring the transformative potential of the Nigerian reserves if responsibly developed.
Bitumen mining
Ondo State’s bitumen belt exhibits analogous characteristics: abundant resource wealth coexisting with socioeconomic marginalisation, environmental degradation, and institutional inertia. Surface-level seepages are a common phenomenon in the southern part of the state, serving as a visible indicator of the substantial reserves beneath.
Research confirms the presence of bitumen reserves across six blocks in several Local Government Areas (LGAs), including Odigbo, Irele, and Okitipupa. Specific communities where bitumen seepages have been identified and studied include Ode-Irele and Agbabu.
Geographic Distribution
The Nigerian bitumen belt is hosted within Cretaceous terrigenous sediments of the East Dahomey Basin. Within Ondo State, hydrocarbon-bearing strata occur in two principal sandy units: Horizon Y (3–26 m thick, fine-to-medium quartz sand, mean oil saturation ~12%) and the overlying Horizon X (10–22 m, sandstone–shale interbeds).
The low clay content of these units (2–7%) facilitates upward hydraulic migration of bituminous fluids through faults and fractures, generating the surface seepages documented across communities including Ode-Irele, Agbabu, Ludasa, and Idioilayo. Seepage induces measurable alteration of near-surface soil properties: research at Agbabu demonstrates significantly reduced hydraulic conductivity and increased bulk density in bitumen-impregnated soil horizons relative to unimpacted controls, with direct implications for agricultural productivity and groundwater recharge.
Multi-temporal satellite imagery analysis and GIS delineation confirm the areal concentration of bitumen deposition across six prospecting blocks in three principal LGAs: Irele (~940.5 km²), Odigbo (~609.2 km²), and Okitipupa (~590.4 km²). The technique validated extensively for hydrocarbon contamination mapping via spectral reflectance differentiation of impregnated vs. uncontaminated soils further reveals a progressive expansion of seepage extent in Ludasa and Idioilayo communities over the 30-year period 1991-2021. This temporal trajectory is consistent with ongoing geogenic hydrocarbon migration, potentially amplified by exploratory disturbance creating preferential upward migration conduits.
Environmental and Public Health Implications
Natural bitumen is a chemically complex matrix that mobilises a suite of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) into surrounding soil via leaching, volatilisation, and physical incorporation during seepage events. A 2025 geochemical study at seepage and exploration sites in Ode-Irele, employing atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) on composite soil samples, documented concentrations of nine PTEs including manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), lead (Pb), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), and cadmium (Cd) that exceeded FEPA (1991) permissible thresholds at both site categories.
The lead concentration at exploration sites (290.00 ± 56.60 mg/kg) is particularly concerning. Global soil contamination analyses at 796,084 sampling points classify lead enrichment above 200 mg/kg as severe contamination with high potential for food chain infiltration and non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risk. Heavy metal accumulation in soil concurrently reduces pore connectivity and water-holding capacity, diminishing soil fertility and agricultural output, effects documented for chromium, cadmium, nickel, copper, and zinc at concentrations analogous to those measured at Ode-Irele.
Bitumen is a primary environmental source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) – fused aromatic ring compounds produced during incomplete thermal decomposition of organic matter. PAHs are genotoxic and carcinogenic, classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as Group 1 and Group 2A carcinogens. Prior studies at Agbabu, Ondo State, detected total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and elevated PAH profiles in both soil and water samples consistent with geogenic petroleum-source contamination.
Research in Odigbo and Irele LGAs documents contamination of both surface and groundwater resources utilised by host communities as primary potable water sources. Manganese, iron, copper, zinc, chromium, cadmium, nickel, vanadium, and arsenic have been measured in wells and streams at concentrations exceeding FEPA and WHO drinking water guideline values.
Total petroleum hydrocarbon concentrations in wells at Ludasa have been recorded as high as 1,480 mg/L which far exceed environmental safety thresholds. A particularly hazardous hydrological phenomenon observed in the area is the post-rainfall formation of bitumen films on stream surfaces, which physically impede atmospheric oxygen exchange, suppress aquatic biodiversity, depress benthic invertebrate communities, and reduce the water body’s self-purification capacity.
Socio-Economic Impact on Resident Communities
While bitumen deposits represent a significant economic resource, exploration activities have not translated into improved livelihoods for local residents. A comprehensive study on the socio-economic effects of bitumen exploration in Southern Ondo State revealed a starkly negative picture.
This is evidence of the “resource curse”, being the empirically documented tendency for resource-abundant territories to exhibit greater poverty, weaker institutional performance, and lower economic growth than resource-poor counterparts.
A comprehensive socio-economic impact study across nine communities in Odigbo, Irele, and Okitipupa LGAs found that many residents subsist on a mean daily income of approximately US$0.67 (₦1,139) – only 31% of the World Bank’s international extreme poverty threshold of US$2.15 per day. Statistical analysis confirmed a significant negative association between bitumen exploration activities and community well-being, implying that exploration has not yielded positive livelihood outcomes for host populations.
This is consistent with the broader Nigerian experience: despite oil accounting for 95% of export earnings and 90% of government revenue over the past six decades, over 70% of Nigeria’s population lives below the poverty line, and 90% of oil revenue has historically accrued to just 1% of the population.
Adepoju et al. (2025), in the most recent peer-reviewed assessment of the Ondo State bitumen paradox, describe Agbabu, one of the most prominent bitumen communities as “socioeconomically disadvantaged,” with residents’ livelihoods dependent on subsistence farming, fishing, and tree logging in an environment visibly affected by bitumen’s environmental footprint. Research confirms that current levels of bitumen development, with BCE Greensands Nigeria Limited identified as the only active mining company in Ondo State, “have brought no change to the development of a sustainable economy in Nigeria”.
Bitumen-induced soil modification directly undermines agricultural viability: elevated bulk density and reduced hydraulic conductivity impair root penetration, drainage, and moisture availability, while elevated heavy metal concentrations in soil translate into phytotoxic conditions and measurable bioaccumulation in plant tissues.
Studies on soil–plant transfer of Mn, Zn, Cu, and Fe at bitumen-contaminated sites in the region document concentrations in edible plant parts significantly elevated relative to uncontaminated controls, constituting a dietary exposure pathway for heavy metals in dependent communities.
A critical enabling factor in the perpetuation of environmental harm without community benefit is the inadequacy of Nigeria’s regulatory framework as applied to bitumen exploration. Analysis of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Act and NESREA Act has identified structural lapses that permit exploratory activity to proceed without mandatory baseline environmental assessments, community consultation, or legally enforceable remediation obligations.
Conclusion
Ondo State’s natural bitumen belt represents a resource of unparalleled economic potential. However, the scientific evidence discussed in this article reveals that the current governance paradigm characterised by uncontrolled geogenic seepage, exploratory soil disturbance, regulatory inaction, and structural exclusion of host communities from resource revenues is generating a multidimensional crisis of environmental contamination and socio-economic marginalisation.
Heavy metal concentrations exceeding regulatory thresholds, progressive expansion of surface seepage over three decades, degradation of water resources on which vulnerable populations depend, and community incomes at one-third of the extreme poverty line collectively constitute an obvious case of environmental injustice that demands urgent, evidence-based intervention.
By Sasere Omolade Victoria, Nigerian Environmental Study Action Team (NEST), Ibadan, Nigeria
The International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) has been officially designated a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention, recognising the ecological significance of its campus landscape and its contribution to global biodiversity, water security, and climate resilience.
The Ramsar Convention is an international treaty dedicated to the conservation and wise use of wetlands. IITA’s inclusion in the Ramsar List places its campus among globally recognised sites that are critical for maintaining ecological balance and supporting sustainable development.
IITA, Ibadan
Located in Ibadan, Nigeria, the IITA campus encompasses a unique wetland ecosystem that supports diverse plant and animal species, regulates water systems, and contributes to climate mitigation. The designation highlights the global environmental value of the site and reinforces IITA’s long-standing commitment to responsible land stewardship.
Ramsar wetland sites are designated based on nine criteria regarding their international significance in ecology, botany, zoology, limnology, or hydrology. Sites must represent rare/unique wetlands or support vulnerable species, critical life stages, or substantial waterbird/fish populations.
At least one criterion must be met to achieve designation. The Government of Nigeria designated IITA as a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention. The designation underscores Nigeria’s commitment to the conservation and sustainable management of wetlands in line with global environmental standards.
“This recognition reflects the ecological importance of our campus and strengthens our responsibility to manage it sustainably,” said Dr Simeon Ehui, Director General of IITA and Regional Director for Africa of CGIAR. “As a leading agricultural research institution, we are proud to demonstrate that scientific innovation and environmental conservation can coexist. The Ramsar designation affirms our commitment to advancing food systems transformation while protecting vital ecosystems.”
For almost six decades, IITA has conducted agricultural research aimed at improving food security, reducing poverty, and enhancing livelihoods across Africa. The Ramsar designation underscores the Institute’s integrated approach – where agricultural innovation operates within a protected natural landscape that supports biodiversity and climate resilience.
As a Ramsar site, IITA will continue to strengthen wetland management practices, biodiversity monitoring, and sustainable land-use planning across its campus. The Institute also aims to expand partnerships with environmental organisations, research institutions, policymakers, and development partners to advance conservation and nature-based solutions.
The designation presents new opportunities for collaboration in areas such as:
Wetland conservation and restoration
Climate-smart agriculture
Biodiversity research and conservation
Water resource management
Nature-based climate solutions
By aligning agricultural research with global environmental standards, IITA says it reinforces its position as a leader in sustainable development and ecosystem stewardship in Africa.
A concerning pattern across Nigeria and much of Africa is the belief among many government spokespersons that governance communication is public relations (PR), often laced with denial, half-truths, or outright propaganda. For many of them, their primary responsibility is to promote and defend the government at all costs.
This thinking is precisely where communication crises begin.
Governance communication is not about selling an image. It is about informing citizens, fostering transparency, explaining policies, facilitating dialogue, and strengthening institutional accountability.
Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris
When communication is reduced to promotion and image management, democracy suffers. Public trust erodes, and citizens are treated as audiences to be persuaded rather than stakeholders to be engaged.
Once those entrusted with communicating governance begin to see themselves as brand managers, the focus shifts from empowering citizens with information to managing perception. That is a dangerous path and often a recipe for systemic failure.
In reality, many policy failures and development setbacks in government are not merely governance failures; they are communication failures.
In the last three months, I have had the opportunity to engage with more than 20 senior government officials in Nigeria, including political office holders, political appointees, and top public servants. These discussions revealed.
For many politicians, communication means finding individuals who can aggressively defend the government, attack the opposition, and absorb public anger, even if it requires distortion or denial.
Among many public servants, communication is still largely seen as public relations, issuing statements, managing media narratives, and projecting positive images.
What is missing in both perspectives is a fundamental understanding that communication in governance should be about dialogue, negotiation, citizen engagement, and empowerment.
This misunderstanding partly explains why governments often struggle to communicate policies effectively or build public trust around development programmes.
There is an urgent need to rethink how governance communication is understood and practiced.
We need a new generation of communication professionals who understand that communication is not merely publicity, branding, or social media activity. It is a strategic process of building trust, facilitating participation, and enabling citizens to engage meaningfully with governance.
In earlier times, when access to information was limited, denial and propaganda could sometimes succeed in shaping public perception. But in today’s information age, where citizens have unprecedented access to information, such approaches are no longer sustainable.
Modern governance communication must be built on truth, transparency, accountability, and sincerity.
Without these principles, communication will continue to deepen distrust between governments and citizens.
If the current pattern continues, the problem will not simply be a failure of political leadership, but also a failure of communication practice itself.
Because communication, when properly understood and practiced, is not merely the exchange of information, it is a foundation for development.
Dr. Audu Liberty Oseni is Director, Centre for Development Communication
Three environmental justice organisations have launched a High Court challenge to the environmental authorisation granted for Eskom’s proposed Nuclear-1 power station, arguing that the approval was granted in breach of mandatory requirements of South Africa’s environmental impact assessment laws. The proposed 4,000 MW project would be built at Duynefontein next to the existing Koeberg nuclear power station near Cape Town.
The Southern African Faith Communities’ Environment Institute (SAFCEI), Greenpeace Africa and Earthlife Africa Johannesburg describe Nuclear-1 as a “zombie” nuclear project, revived nearly two decades after the environmental approval process first began in 2007. The environmental authorisation was granted in 2017, and appeals against it were only dismissed in 2025, after an unusually prolonged appeal process.
President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa
The organisations are concerned that nuclear projects of this scale could involve capital commitments running into the hundreds of billions of rand and potentially exceeding one trillion rand, depending on technology choices, construction costs and financing arrangements, with possible implications for electricity tariffs and taxpayers.
The application challenges both the 2017 decision by the Chief Director: Integrated Environment Authorisations, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the environment to grant Eskom the environmental authorisation for the project as well as the 2025 decision by the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment dismissing appeals against that approval.
The organisations argue that the environmental authorisation was granted in circumstances where mandatory requirements of South Africa’s environmental impact assessment laws were not properly complied with.
The review application is based on several grounds, including the following:
The organisations contend that decision-makers did not conduct a proper project-specific assessment of whether constructing the proposed nuclear power station at Duynefontein was necessary or desirable, relying primarily on national electricity planning policy rather than conducting the required project-specific need and desirability assessment.
The organisations argue that renewable energy technologies were not properly assessed as alternatives to the proposed nuclear power station. The environmental assessment relied on outdated assumptions about electricity demand, energy costs and the need for nuclear “base-load” power, and did not adequately consider developments in renewable energy and battery energy storage systems. According to the organisations, electricity supply needs can be met through combinations of renewable generation – such as solar and wind – supported by energy storage technologies.
The organisations contend that the option of not proceeding with the project was not meaningfully evaluated during the environmental assessment process, as required by environmental law.
The organisations argue that the environmental assessment did not adequately evaluate the potential environmental, health and socio-economic consequences of a catastrophic nuclear incident involving the uncontrolled release of radiation.
SAFCEI’s Executive Director, Francesca de Gasparis, said: “The granting of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for the Duynefontein site seventeen years after it was originally submitted is a resurrection of a nuclear energy plan that should have been shelved more than a decade ago, in 2017, when it was originally appealed by our three organisations. What we are witnessing now is a ‘zombie’ revival of that same plan – without transparency, proper parliamentary oversight, economic justification, or meaningful public participation.”
Cynthia Moyo, Greenpeace Africa’s Climate & Energy Campaigner, emphasised: “It is fundamentally unjust to saddle South Africans and future generations with the financial risk, radioactive waste and catastrophic accident potential of a massive nuclear project when safer, quicker and more affordable renewable energy options are available today. South Africa is in the midst of a climate and economic crisis and pushing ahead with nuclear without fully accounting for its long-term impacts is reckless and irresponsible.
“Climate justice means protecting communities from unnecessary risk and debt, not locking the country into decades of costly infrastructure that benefits the few while burdening the many. This case is about drawing a clear line, our energy future must be safe, equitable and aligned with the constitutional right to a healthy environment for present and future generations.”
Lesai Seema, Director of Cullinan and Associates, said: “We are delighted to support these organisations in ensuring that decisions with long-term consequences for millions of South Africans are taken in accordance with the law. A commitment to spend billions of rands on nuclear power plants is one that must comply with national legislation and reckon honestly with its environmental, social and economic consequences for present and future generations.”
The organisations are asking the High Court to declare the environmental authorisation and the Minister’s appeal decision unlawful and to set them aside.
Following service of the founding affidavit, the case is now a matter of public record.
The Nigerian Conservation Foundation (NCF), Lagos-based environmental non-governmental organisation, has appointed Kunle Olawoyin as the new Director of Communications, Policy and Advocacy, effective March 2, 2026.
Olawoyin, who has previously served as Head of the Media and Public Affairs Unit at NCF from 2009 to 2015, will lead NCF’s communication, policy and advocacy agenda in support of the organisation 2025-2030 strategy. He will work with various teams to strengthen NCF’s public voice, influence environmental policy outcomes, shape national and continental narratives on climate change, biodiversity conservation and environmental pollution.
Kunle Olawoyin
Olawoyin is a seasoned communications and advocacy expert with a demonstrated history of managing strategic campaigns, influencing policy and advocacy at national and international levels. A trained journalist, he started his career as a cub reporter with Rhythm 93.7 FM. He has also worked with National Interest Newspapers, and National Mirror Newspapers where he gained hands-on experience in reporting, editing, and news production.
Prior to this new appointment, he has served as Media and Communications Officer at Oxfam GB and Oxfam International, before joining Save the Children International, where he held key roles including Media and Communications Manager for Nigeria, Regional Media and Communications Manager for West and Central Africa, and most recently, Media Manager at the Global Media Unit of the world leading child rights organisation.
His work has strengthened the visibility and impact of organizations he has served, and his expertise will now be leveraged to position NCF as a credible thought leader and partner in environmental conservation across Nigeria and Africa.
Olawoyin holds a Higher National Diploma in Mass Communication from The Polytechnic, Ibadan, a master’s degree in communication studies from Lagos State University, a Bachelor of Laws (LLB) from the National Open University of Nigeria, and a Master of Laws (LLM) from Nasarawa State University, Keffi. He also holds certificates in Advanced Writing and Reporting from Pan-Atlantic University among other professional certifications.
Dr. Joseph Onoja, Director General of NCF, said: “I have no doubt about Olawoyin’s capacity to deliver on this new challenge because of his depth of experience in communications, advocacy, and campaigns, combined with his prior knowledge of NCF.
“NCF, as the leader in environmental conservation in Nigeria, is at the stage where we need more committed and high skilled individuals to increase the visibility of our impacts, strengthening our public engagements and policy influencing across boards.”
The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council has announced that the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum (OLEF) will take place on April 9, 2026, at the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) Tower in Abuja. The forum will bring together regulators, operators, policymakers, investors, and industry professionals to discuss practical strategies for strengthening Nigeria’s energy sector and increasing oil production.
Speaking at a press conference in Lagos, Francis Nwaochei, FNSE, Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, said Nigeria must move beyond traditional production models and adopt technology-driven operations supported by disciplined investment and clear policy frameworks.
L-R: Member, Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council, Oladipo Ashafa; Chairperson, SPE-OLEF 2026, Priscilla Enwere; Chairman, SPE, Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei; Vice Chairman, SPE, Nigeria Council, Effa Agbor; Secretary, SPE Lagos, Hassannah Salami and Communication & Protocol Chairman, SPE Nigeria, Chima Okorie at the pre- press conference announcing the upcoming 2026 edition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Oloibiri Lecture Series & Energy Forum (OLEF) held in Lagos recently
“Nigeria can reach and surpass three million barrels per day, but the era of easy production is over,” Nwaochei said.
“Progress will depend on innovation, digitalization, efficient capital deployment, and a regulatory environment that supports intelligent operations and asset optimization,” he added.
The theme of OLEF 2026 is “Beyond the Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation.” The forum will focus on aligning technology, financing, and regulatory policy to unlock Nigeria’s full production potential.
Despite recent improvements, Nigeria’s crude oil output remains below capacity, with implications for government revenue, foreign exchange stability, and economic confidence. Nwaochei noted that stronger production is critical to fiscal stability, domestic refining growth, gas development for power and industry, and Nigeria’s role as a reliable global energy supplier.
Discussions will also address how to maximise existing assets through improved field management, revitalisation of idle wellbores, and new field development, while strengthening indigenous operators through better access to financing, technology partnerships, and digital capabilities.
The Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum remains one of Nigeria’s leading platforms for policy dialogue and thought leadership in the energy industry. It was established in honor of Nigeria’s first commercial oil discovery in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State.
OLEF 2026 edition is designed as a working forum aimed at generating practical recommendations to inform regulatory reform, investment decisions, and national energy planning.
In global energy markets, geopolitics has a habit of repeating old lessons.
The latest crisis in the Middle East – triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has again exposed the fragility of the world’s oil supply chain. Iranian retaliation has effectively choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
Within days, tanker movements slowed sharply and markets responded with predictable speed. Brent crude climbed above $84 per barrel, its sharpest weekly gain in decades, while analysts began openly discussing the possibility of triple-digit oil prices if disruptions persist.
Kunle Odusola-Stevenson
For most oil-importing economies, such volatility is unwelcome news. For Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, it represents something more complicated: the prospect of another sudden windfall.
Nigeria has been here before. The last time global conflict triggered such a surge in oil revenues, the outcome was not encouraging.
In 1990, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait removed roughly 4.5 million barrels per day from world supply. Prices surged from about $17 to nearly $46 per barrel. Nigeria, producing close to 1.8 million barrels per day at the time, benefited from what economists later estimated as more than $12bn in unexpected revenue.
What became of that windfall has since entered the country’s political folklore.
An inquiry led by economist Pius Okigbo later reported that $12.4bn had flowed into opaque “dedicated accounts” outside normal budgetary oversight during the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida. By the time the panel concluded its investigation in the mid-1990s, most of the funds had disappeared.
The episode was more than a financial scandal. It symbolised a missed opportunity at a moment when Nigeria could have strengthened its economic foundations. The funds were meant to support strategic projects, including defence spending and the long-delayed Ajaokuta steel complex. Instead, the country emerged from the oil boom with little to show for it.
Three decades later, Nigeria finds itself confronting a similar moment, though under different economic circumstances.
The federal budget for 2026 assumes an oil price of roughly $65 per barrel and production of 1.84 million barrels per day. In practice, output has struggled to reach those levels. Production currently fluctuates between 1.46 and 1.58 million barrels daily, constrained by pipeline vandalism, operational disruptions and persistent oil theft in the Niger Delta.
Industry estimates suggest that as much as 400,000 barrels per day are lost to theft and sabotage, the revenue that would otherwise flow into government coffers.
Even so, the current price surge offers a potential fiscal reprieve.
If Brent prices remain near $80–$90 per barrel over the coming months and Nigeria manages to lift output modestly, and supported by deepwater developments such as the Egina field, the country could realise an additional $10–15bn in revenue over the next year.
For an economy navigating currency volatility, high debt service and stubborn inflation, such an inflow would be significant. It could strengthen foreign reserves, ease pressure on the naira and create room for targeted investment.
Yet windfalls rarely arrive without complications.
Higher oil prices also feed into domestic inflation through transport costs and imported fuel. Petrol prices, already elevated after the removal of subsidies, could rise further, placing additional strain on households.
The broader question therefore is not whether Nigeria will benefit from higher oil prices, but whether it will manage the proceeds differently this time.
Other resource dependent economies offer useful lessons.
Norway remains the benchmark. Since the 1990s it has channelled most petroleum revenues into the Government Pension Fund Global, now valued at more than $2tn. The fund invests internationally, shielding the domestic economy from commodity volatility while preserving wealth for future generations.
Chile provides another example. Through its Economic and Social Stabilisation Fund, built largely from copper revenues, the country has established clear fiscal rules that save excess earnings during boom periods and deploy them during downturns.
These models are not easily replicated, but their underlying principle is simple: commodity windfalls require institutional discipline.
Nigeria already possesses some of the necessary structures. The Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority and the Excess Crude Account were both designed to manage surplus oil revenues. In practice, however, political pressures have often undermined their effectiveness.
A credible approach to the current windfall could follow several straightforward priorities.
First, a significant share of excess revenue should be channelled automatically into long-term savings through the sovereign wealth framework. This would help stabilise government finances and reassure investors concerned about fiscal volatility.
Second, part of the proceeds should address Nigeria’s rising debt burden. Public debt now exceeds $100bn, while debt servicing absorbs a large portion of federal revenues. Reducing foreign currency liabilities would lower financing costs and improve fiscal sustainability.
Third, the government could use the opportunity to accelerate investments that reduce structural dependence on imported fuel. Despite its status as a major crude producer, Nigeria has historically relied heavily on imported refined products. Strengthening domestic refining capacity and gas infrastructure would ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves and improve energy security.
Finally, transparency will be critical. Clear reporting on how windfall revenues are allocated and credible oversight of the process, would strengthen public trust and enhance Nigeria’s reputation among international investors increasingly attentive to governance standards.
None of these steps require radical policy innovation. What they demand is consistency.
The global context makes the stakes higher than they were in the early 1990s. Energy markets are evolving rapidly as the transition to cleaner fuels gathers pace, while geopolitical tensions continue to reshape trade flows and supply chains.
For Nigeria, the present moment may therefore represent not only a temporary fiscal boost but also one of the last major windfalls of the traditional oil era.
Thirty-five years ago, a similar opportunity slipped away.
Today, with oil prices rising again and global attention focused on energy security, Nigeria has a chance to demonstrate that it has learned from the past.
Whether it does so will matter not only to Nigerians, but also to the investors and policymakers around the world watching how Africa’s largest economy manages its most valuable resource.
Kunle Odusola-Stevenson is a Lagos-based public relations professional and communication strategist specialising in energy policy and reputation management in the oil and gas sector
The continued bombardment of Iran by the United States of America to Israel’s advantage may have again uncovered the dominance of the world’s energy system and the fragility of the least developed and oil-dependent economies. The war in the Middle East is already forcing an increase of about 10 percent on oil prices.
Also of concern is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a 38 km corridor through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil transits, and if the shutdown continues, global prices could remain above $100 per barrel. This shows that the world’s glue to fossil fuels comes with grave consequences.
Oil
The toll on Africa is immense. The continent can expect a staggering increase in fuel prices and a rise in food inflation. Nations such as Kenya, Ghana, and Uganda, which are oil-importing, will experience strain in their transportation and production sectors, while states that are oil-exporting might have temporary price spikes but that won’t help their vulnerability to the shocks of the global markets.
The reliance on fossil fuels for Africa as the main source of energy and revenue leaves the continent at the mercy of geopolitical crises beyond its borders. This undue strain and avoidable exposure are affecting fiscal decisions, social interventions, and delaying developments across the region.
This damning reality reveals a broader story: Africa’s energy independence is not impossible. The continent must know that fossil fuels and their so-called associated benefits are tools in the hands of forces beyond the continent’s control. Tension, as seen currently between the US and Iran, and supply disruptions recently observed in Venezuela, can adversely impact Africa and unsettle it. Every increase in fuel price balloons household costs and limits governments’ ability to invest in critical social services and public infrastructures.
Meanwhile, in the middle of this challenge lies a profound window. Africa has enormous renewable energy potential from the striking sun deserts of the Sahel to the vast wind waves along the coasts, and massive hydroelectric prowess in the Congo Basin and beyond. Projects like the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) must now receive special attention from the African Union and all member states due to their potential to ensure clean energy across the region. If maximised, it can reduce Africa’s reliance on foreign fuels, facilitate energy access, and reduce the cost of power.
Beyond energy alone, investing in renewable facilities will no doubt support economic diversification as green hydrogen and other clean-tech industries have proven to provide employment, fortify domestic industries, and improve continental trade. Drifting away from a fossil-dependent economy, the continent will immune their economies from external volatility while laying the foundation for lasting growth.
Internally, Nigeria must take a pause and reflect on its growth priorities. These emerging realities and the lessons of the COVID-19 era, when oil exports were stranded in global markets should force a rethink on the government and henceforth inform policy priorities. The country must establish long-term financing instruments outside the global oil price swings that fast-track development. Depending on fossil revenues to finance public expenditures and investing percentages of fossil derivatives in speculative (frontier exploration) are no longer viable strategies, they will only expose the country to unnecessary and avoidable risk.
Ultimately, the ongoing US, Israel – Iran war should rouse Africa, as fragility to global oil shocks is not inevitable; it is a choice accepted by African leaders. Investment in sustainable industrialisation and clean energy remains the only way Africa and Nigeria can turn this period of uncertainties into an era of resilience and self-determination.
By Olamide Martins, Associate Director, Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA), Lagos, Nigeria
The Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) has called on the Federal Government and state authorities to adopt stronger protections and more inclusive policies for Nigerian women as the world marks the 2026 edition of International Women’s Day (IWD).
In a statement issued on Sunday, March 8, 2026, the organisation said this year’s theme, “Give to Gain,” reflects the reality that women in Nigeria continue to shoulder a significant share of the labour that sustains families, communities, and the wider economy.
Indigenous women
CAPPA noted that across the country, women manage household resources, provide care for children and relatives, and often carry the responsibility of keeping families afloat in difficult economic conditions. Despite this central role, the organisation said many women and girls still lack access to the basic services and protections necessary for a dignified life. The group pointed out that millions of Nigerian women struggle to access safe water, sanitation, healthcare, education, and other essential services.
CAPPA also raised concern about the persistence of gender-based violence. Citing the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, the organisation said about 31 percent of Nigerian women aged 15 to 49 have experienced physical violence, while about 9 percent have faced sexual violence at some point in their lives. It added that more than 10,326 cases of gender-based violence were reported between January and September 2025.
At the same time, the organisation noted the growing concern around femicide in Nigeria, which has prompted advocates and civil society groups to repeatedly call on authorities to treat the killing of women as a national emergency and to strengthen both prevention and accountability measures.
Economic inequality further compounds the challenges faced by women, according to the group. CAPPA stated that data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that women are more likely to work in low-income or informal sectors, where job security and social protection are limited. It added that women farmers, traders, and small business owners in various communities struggle to access credit, land, and other resources needed to grow their livelihoods, while rising living costs place additional pressure on women responsible for managing household welfare.
The organisation also highlighted the low level of women’s representation in political decision-making. It stated that women currently occupy about 3.9 percent of legislative seats in Nigeria, one of the lowest rates globally. Out of 469 members of the National Assembly, only 19 are women, including 15 in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate.
According to CAPPA, Nigeria ranks 180 out of 185 countries in the Inter-Parliamentary Union global ranking for women’s parliamentary representation and remains the lowest-ranked country in Sub-Saharan Africa. The organisation added that even the few women who have broken through into political leadership still face sexism, exclusion, and the undermining of their contributions or positions as equals in male-dominated political environments.
“These realities expose a clear contradiction,” the statement said. “Nigerian women give so much to sustain society, yet many continue to live within systems that fail to guarantee their safety, health, political participation, and economic security.”
CAPPA said this year’s IWD theme, Give to Gain, should be understood as a demand for accountability, arguing that governments at all levels must recognise the contributions of women by creating conditions that allow them to live and lead with dignity.
The organisation called for stronger investment in public services such as water, healthcare, sanitation, and education, as well as stronger laws and enforcement mechanisms to prevent and respond to gender-based violence. It also stressed the need to protect civic space so that women leaders, organisers, and advocates can carry out their work without fear of intimidation or repression.
CAPPA further urged policymakers to address the unequal burden of unpaid care work through measures such as affordable childcare, paid family leave, and infrastructure improvements that reduce time poverty for women. It also called for gender responsive budgeting, improved access to credit for women entrepreneurs, and policies aimed at closing the gender pay gap.
On political participation, the organisation said legislative reforms such as the proposed Special Seats for Women Bill could help increase women’s representation and ensure that women’s voices play a stronger role in shaping national policies. It therefore called for the swift passage of the bill.
CAPPA reaffirmed its commitment to working with women across Nigeria who are organising around critical issues. According to the organisation, women’s leadership across communities continues to demonstrate that when women organise, societies move closer to justice.
“As we reflect on the theme “Give to Gain”, true progress for Nigeria lies in recognising and reciprocating the contributions of its women,” the organisation said. “Investing in women’s rights remains fundamental to building a just and sustainable future for all Nigerians.”
