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Securing Africa’s agricultural future: The science, communication, politics and urgency of now

Michael Simire
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Securing Africa’s agricultural future: The science, communication, politics and urgency of now

One of the key outcomes of the Second African Conference on Agricultural Technologies (ACAT2025), held in Kigali, Rwanda, in June 2025, was a timely reminder to African governments and people that the continent has a shared vision and aspirations it is pursuing: “The Africa We Want – Agenda 2063.” This 50-year blueprint developed in 2013, serves as the continent’s master plan for sustainable development and economic growth.

Aspiration 1 of Agenda 2063 envisions “a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development,” with the goal of achieving zero hunger. Realising this aspiration, according to the Acting Head of the Genome Editing Programme at the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD), Prof. Olalekan Akinbo, “hinges on the core pillars of policy, science, and community engagement, supported by appropriate science communication.”

Prof. Olalekan Akinbo
Acting Head of the Genome Editing Programme at the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD), Prof. Olalekan Akinbo

Communicating science within the political space

Speaking at one of the sessions during the ACAT2025, he emphasised the importance of communicating science “in a way that is understandable and actionable for policymakers.

In a subsequent interview, Prof. Akinbo elaborated: “Communicating science within political spaces is absolutely critical and must be done with an understanding of the dynamics involved in presenting scientific information to non-scientists, particularly those with political interests.”

He noted that the focus of such communication should include “demystifying scientific technology and innovation, and deepening understanding of the role science plays in national development.”

As an agency mandated to support the development and implementation of science-related policy across African Union member states, AUDA-NEPAD, Prof. Akinbo said, insists that science communication must be grounded in national science policies and aligned with the broader continental agenda.

“The African Union works through existing national structures,” he explained. “For instance, scientific institutions are mandated to generate research outputs that reflect government priorities, especially where those institutions receive state funding. These innovations, such as improved crop varieties, must be aligned with national development goals.”

Prof. Akinbo added that effective science communication must involve national structures, such as scientists working directly on technologies of strategic interest to government. He emphasized the importance of highlighting the role of government and its financial commitment to research aimed at reducing poverty and improving livelihoods.

“To ensure impact and sustainability, policymakers’ interests must be aligned with continental science and innovation policies. Otherwise, there’s a risk that local political interests may overshadow or derail broader development goals,” he concluded.

Embracing biotechnology in Africa’s agriculture: The urgency of now

In a related development, the founding Director of the West Africa Centre for Crop Improvement (WACCI) at the University of Ghana, Prof. Eric Yirenkyi Danquah, issued a strong call to action:
“Unless African leaders act boldly to transform the continent’s agriculture, we will continue to fail our people.”

Speaking at a regional stakeholders’ meeting in Accra on agricultural biotechnology in Africa, Prof. Danquah underscored the immense pressure Africa’s agriculture is currently under: from climate change, food insecurity and population growth to limited access to new technologies.

“Biotechnology offers us real hope,” he stated. While acknowledging that biotechnology is not a magic bullet, he emphasised: “…it is a powerful tool – one that allows us to develop better crops faster, to feed growing populations, and to build resilience against the shocks of climate change.”

He continued: “If we embrace it with wisdom and courage, we can change the story of hunger in Africa. But to truly unlock the power of science for the good of all, we must also confront deeper issues of justice, the need for evidence-based action, and the urgency of now”.

That urgency is underscored by rapid population growth across Africa. Ghana, for example, is projected to increase hers by over 2.25 million people within the next five years. This population surge highlights the critical need for new breeding tools that deliver resilient, nutritious, and high-yielding crops to ensure food security.

Prof. Danquah stressed that finding sustainable solutions to improve agricultural productivity and resilience is non-negotiable and the role of biotechnology in this endeavor cannot be overstated.

While commending Ghana’s progress, including the historic approval of genetically modified (GM) Pod Borer Resistant (PBR) cowpea in July 2024, exactly a year ago, he acknowledged that barriers remain. “These approvals demonstrate our cautious but steady approach to adopting biotechnology, carefully balancing innovation with available resources.”

To fully realise the benefits of biotechnology, Prof. Danquah emphasised the need to strengthen and scale up research and regulatory institutions. “Without this, the impact of innovation will be limited, and our ability to respond to future challenges will be compromised,” he warned.

One of the issues that Africa needs to tackle to strengthen it agricultural sector is the development of the required human capital.

Building Africa’s next generation of plant scientists

In Ghana, some key academic institutions are already training students in the tools of scientific technology and innovation adoptable for agricultural purposes. WACCI is one such institution. Since its establishment in 2007, the Centre has been at the forefront of efforts to transform agriculture in Africa through enhancing the capacity of human capital. The Centre is training the next generation of African plant breeders – for Africa, in Africa.

So far, WACCI has graduated over 120 PhDs and 60 MPhil holders, many of whom are leading agricultural innovation across 15 African countries. In Ghana alone, 28 of the Centre’s plant breeders including Prof. Maxwell Asante, Director of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research-Crop Research Institute (CSIR-CRI) at Fumesua, near Kumasi, and his Deputy, Dr. Ernest Baafi are WACCI alumni. At the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Institute-Savanna Agricultural Research Institute (CSIR-SARI) in Nyankpala, near Tamale, Dr. Joseph Adjebeng-Danquah, another WACCI-trained scientist, serves as Deputy Director.

Together, WACCI alumni have developed and released more than 290 improved crop varieties now in the hands of farmers across the continent. In addition, WACCI and its graduates have attracted over $100 million in funding to support agricultural research and development activities in Africa.

By Ama Kudom-Agyemang

Shettima advocates Lake Chad revival at UN Summit on Food

Michael Simire
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Shettima advocates Lake Chad revival at UN Summit on Food

Vice-President Kashim Shettima has advocated the reviving of the Lake Chad to enhance all-year farming and support the Green Revolution Project.

Lake Chad
The climate variability impact on Lake Chad has also worsened the abundance and conservation status of biodiversity. Photo credit: UNEP

Shettima made the call on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, at the UN Food Systems Summit +4 (UNFSS+4) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The vice president spoke at a panel on “Country Perspectives: Government-led Strategies and Regional Frameworks”.

He said the revival of the Lake Chad region, being threatened by multidimensional challenges, is crucial to rebuilding sustainable and inclusive food systems in the region and across Africa.

The vice president identified the challenges to include, environmental degradation, climate change, humanitarian crises and conflict.

According to him, addressing the multidimensional challenges  requires a multi-pronged approach, development initiatives, conflict resolution, regional cooperation, and large-scale infrastructure.

The vice president challenged African nations to desist from charity and long-term aid from the developed world as they are not sustainable solutions for Africa’s development and may even be detrimental.

“We believe charity is not the answer. In Africa, we say that when you give a man a fish, you feed him for a day,” he said.

He said the President Bola Tinubu’s administration has designed a comprehensive strategy to address food security challenges, which mostly impact vulnerable citizens in conflict-affected regions.

“Our target is to attain food sovereignty. So long as a nation is not independent in the area of food sovereignty, it remains a non-sovereign nation.

“President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food security, not out of fear, but out of genuine concern for the welfare of our people.

“This is especially in conflict-driven environments like the North East, where Boko Haram was sowing seeds of discord and destruction,” he stated.

Shettima explained that, with 25 million vulnerable people across fragile regions, the government adopted coordinated policy measures.

He stressed that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation strategy is market-driven, powered by entrepreneurship and innovation.

“Our belief is that agriculture should be market-driven.

“The whole mantra is about increasing yields. Entrepreneurial capitalism is embedded in the psyche of the average Nigerian,” he said.

By Salisu Sani-Idris

Bee conservation crucial for ecosystem, agriculture – FCT ACReSAL 

Michael Simire
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Bee conservation crucial for ecosystem, agriculture – FCT ACReSAL 

Project Coordinator of the FCT Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL), Mrs. Caroline Opara, has emphasised that bees play a vital role in conserving biodiversity and preserving ecosystems.

Opara, who stated this in an interview on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, in Abuja, noted that the importance of bees cannot be overstated, especially in maintaining ecological balance and supporting agricultural productivity.

Bees
Bees

“Bees are essential pollinators. In fact, they are responsible for about 75 per cent of pollination activities in agriculture, which is why they are often referred to as golden insects,” she said.

According to her, bee populations must be protected to ensure food security, especially as agricultural habitats continue to be threatened by environmental degradation.

She stressed the need for increased awareness and stakeholder engagement to preserve bee habitats and enhance apiculture.

“Apiculture is a key component of ACReSAL’s interventions, as honey is one of the non-timber products supported by the project,” Opara said.

She explained that because forestry is largely community-based, protecting the ecosystem goes hand-in-hand with sustaining livelihoods.

The coordinator added that ACReSAL would continue to promote bee conservation through awareness campaigns and support for local beekeeping initiatives.

Opara called on government agencies, farmers, and environmental groups to work together to safeguard bee populations as part of efforts to ensure food sustainability and ecological resilience.

Bees are responsible for a huge share of global pollination, with estimates suggesting they account for 70 to 90 per cent of all insect pollination activities.

By Abigael Joshua

Charcoal trade a threat to forest sustainability, livelihood – Govt

Michael Simire
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Charcoal trade a threat to forest sustainability, livelihood – Govt

The Federal Government of Nigeria says charcoal trade is a threat to forest sustainability and livelihood in the country.

Dr Aishetu Ndayako, Permanent Secretary, Ecological Project Office (EPO), Office of the Secretary to the Federal Government, said this at the opening of a one-day stakeholders dialogue on charcoal production and forest conservation.

Forest
Saving the forests from charcoal merchants

The event, organised by Centre for Renewable Energy and Action on Climate Change (CREACC-NG) supported by EkoEnergy, on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, in Abuja had “Trade and Trees-Rethinking Charcoal Production and the Vanishing Forests’’ as its theme.

Ndayako, who spoke on the topic, “Charcoal Trade Forest Loss and Ecological Challenges in Nigeria’’, said that charcoal trade was a significant source of household energy for millions of Nigerians, particularly in rural and peri-urban communities.

She said that the largely informal and weakly regulated trade had led to devastating environmental consequences, including deforestation, ecosystem collapse and biodiversity loss.

“The paradox is that Charcoal remains a significant source of household energy for millions of Nigerians, particularly in rural and peri-urban communities.

“With over 70 per cent of our population depending on biomass for cooking, the demand for charcoal has grown exponentially, both for domestic use and as an export commodity.

“Trees are felled indiscriminately, and entire ecosystems are degraded with minimal efforts at regeneration. Forests, which serve as our carbon sinks, biodiversity reservoirs and cultural heritage are under siege,” she said.

She highlighted some strategic shifts that must be taken to forge a coherent and inclusive response.

According to her, there is an urgent need to harmonise national policies on forest and biomass energy, and to empower enforcement agencies to regulate charcoal production and trade effectively.

“Sustainable forestry can only be achieved with the active participation of local communities. We must incentivise tree planting, agroforestry and community-managed woodlots.

“Forests must be seen as renewable assets, not disposable resources.

“We must scale up the transition and access to cleaner energy sources such as LPG, ethanol, biogas; improved biomass briquettes and solar cookstoves, particularly in the rural, peri-urban vulnerable communities,” she said.

She said that EPO was committed to providing sustainable solutions to Nigeria’s ecological concerns and supports dialogues that bring together key stakeholders to forge a coherent and inclusive response to the charcoal trade and forest degradation.

The Minister of State for Education, Prof. Suwaiba Ahmad, said that forests were vital to the planet’s health such that they absorb carbon dioxide, regulate the climate and support rich biodiversity in Nigeria.

Ahmad, represented by Mrs. Aminulai Modupe, Asst. Director, Environmental Science Education Technology and Science Education Department, emphasised the need to integrate environmental education into the national curriculum.

She said that it would raise a generation that valued conservation and understands the environmental cost of unsustainable practices.

The minister said that beyond basic and secondary education, the ministry had launched the Diaspora Bridge Initiative aimed at strengthening research and collaboration across tertiary institutions, including Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics- Medical (STEM-M).

She called on stakeholders to support community workshops and outreach initiatives that promote charcoal production techniques.

“Students are learning about tree life cycles, biodiversity and the importance of sustainability from an early age,’’ Ahmad said.

Earlier, the Executive Director of CREACC-NG, Usman Muhammad, said that as the largest producer of charcoal in Africa and the second-largest globally, Nigeria faced significant environmental challenges.

According to him, there is an alarming rate of deforestation and tree cover loss, especially in the Savannah woodland of Niger, Taraba, Benue, Kwara and Kogi states.

“1.5 million trees are lost everyday, contributing to 3.5 per cent deforestation rate annually.

“This leads to significant CO2 emissions, biodiversity loss, drought, land degradation, desertification and health issues from inefficient production methods,” he said.

Mohammad urged stakeholders to work together towards a sustainable future, adding that the dialogue marked the beginning of a collective effort to address these pressing issues.

He said that the centre was committed to hosting a National Summit in June 2026 to further discuss these pressing matters.

By Jessica Dogo

Chevron refutes spill allegation, reiterates commitment to environmental protection

Michael Simire
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0
Chevron refutes spill allegation, reiterates commitment to environmental protection

Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), operator of the joint venture between the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and CNL, has refuted allegations in the media that it is involved in an ongoing oil spill in its Berth Offshore Platform (BOP), which is impacting communities in Ilaje Local Government Area of Ondo State in the western operations area.

Chevron Nigeria Office
Chevron Nigeria Offices

According to CNL, the allegation of oil spill in its BOP in Ondo State is not true.

Chevron stated that it remains committed to protecting people and the environment and to conducting its operations reliably and efficiently in compliance with regulatory requirements and consideration for the environment.

“CNL is committed to the socio-economic development and empowerment of communities neighbouring its areas of operations,” added the organisation.

ICJ opinion: Judicial action emerges key driver of sustainability impact for civil society

Michael Simire
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0
ICJ opinion: Judicial action emerges key driver of sustainability impact for civil society

A global survey of 844 sustainability experts across 72 countries, conducted by GlobeScan in collaboration with ERM and Volans, finds that judicial action is now seen as one of the most powerful tools civil society can use to drive sustainability outcomes in the near term.

This view has gained significant traction in light of the International Court of Justice (ICJ)’s historic advisory opinion on climate change issued in July 2025, which declares that a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment is a fundamental human right.

International Court of Justice
International Court of Justice

The ICJ’s landmark ruling affirms that countries have legal obligations to prevent environmental harm under international law. Crucially, it finds that states failing to meet their climate commitments are in breach of international law, and that states must cooperate to achieve concrete emissions reduction targets.

This reframes climate action as a legal imperative rather than a policy preference, and elevates the strategic importance of litigation, legal systems, and accountability mechanisms in the global sustainability agenda.

Alongside legal avenues, experts also point to education and leadership development, policy advocacy, and media scrutiny as top civil society strategies to accelerate progress. In contrast, less structured or symbolic approaches, such as NGO campaigns, public protests, or boycotts, are seen as relatively less impactful in achieving systemic change.

What does this mean?

The ICJ’s advisory opinion may be a turning point for climate justice. Though technically not legally binding, it sends a powerful message that could reshape international climate negotiations and jurisprudence. For the more than 3,000 pending climate lawsuits globally, the ICJ’s affirmation of legal obligations offers fresh momentum and potential legal precedent for holding governments and corporations accountable.

For businesses and policymakers, this means climate litigation risk is rising. The advisory opinion may also influence the tone of negotiations at COP30, fueling increased pressure for enforceable targets and climate finance for vulnerable countries. Looking ahead, legal action may no longer be a last resort and could instead become a primary lever in the sustainability toolbox.

Companies would be wise to monitor evolving legal norms, proactively align with international commitments, and embed climate risk into their governance and strategy before courts and public pressure force their hand.

Pacific Ocean tsunami: How UNESCO’s early warning system displayed its effectiveness

Michael Simire
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0
Pacific Ocean tsunami: How UNESCO’s early warning system displayed its effectiveness

Following the powerful earthquake originating off the coast of Russia, UNESCO’s early warning systems triggered a tsunami alert within just 10 minutes. Thanks to this global monitoring system which UNESCO has been deploying for more than 20 years, as well as the organisation’s efforts to raise awareness among coastal populations and lead research in ocean science, millions of people were warned ahead of the coming danger.

On the night of July 29-30, 2025, an 8.8-magnitude undersea earthquake struck off the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia. This exceptionally powerful earthquake was the strongest recorded since the Tōhoku earthquake in Japan in 2011, and one of the ten strongest since 1900.

UNESCO
Ms Audrey Azoulay, the Director-General of UNESCO

Just 10 minutes after the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, coordinated by UNESCO, issued an initial warning covering the areas most at risk, particularly the Russian and Japanese coasts. This warning was then relayed by national centres and enabled the immediate implementation of evacuation plans in several countries.

Within 20 minutes of the earthquake, this system provided detailed forecasts of expected flood heights, and the alert was then extended to other countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. Many of these countries, including China, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, Peru, the United States and New Zealand, then issued national alerts or carried out preventive evacuations.

“This timely alert once again demonstrates the crucial role of international scientific cooperation in the face of natural hazards. UNESCO oversees the global tsunami warning system, puts ocean science to work to protect millions of lives, and helps communities prepare for this risk,” said Audrey Azoulay, Director-General of UNESCO.

In response to the potential damage caused by the tsunami, the Director-General has pledged UNESCO’s support to coastal communities, particularly in preserving and restoring their natural and cultural heritage.

A responsive system that saves lives

Established after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami which claimed more than 220,000 lives, the global tsunami warning system coordinated by UNESCO relies on a dense network of sensors, tide gauges, and regional warning centres. This system is based on an alert chain combining scientific expertise, international coordination, and the rapid response capacity of local authorities. It enables the smooth and efficient flow of information: from analysis centers to governments, then from authorities to exposed populations.

This system now covers the Pacific, Indian, Caribbean, Northeast Atlantic, and Mediterranean ocean basins.

Alerting, while also preparing and understanding

Beyond alerting communities when tsunamis occur, UNESCO is working to strengthen the resilience of coastal populations through several key initiatives. UNESCO’s Tsunami Ready programme, implemented in 43 countries, trains coastal communities in tsunami risk prevention through evacuation plans, information campaigns, and local warning systems. Full-scale evacuation drills are regularly organised to test the effectiveness of warning systems and raise awareness among populations.

The organisation also actively supports scientific research in this field to better understand how tsunamis occur, move and impact coastal areas. Risk modelling, ocean observation and seabed mapping thus enable better management of these ocean disasters.

Oyo moves to rehabilitate bridges crumbled by heavy downpour

Michael Simire
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0
Oyo moves to rehabilitate bridges crumbled by heavy downpour

The Oyo State House of Assembly Minority Leader, Waliu Salami, has raised a matter of urgent public importance, appealing to Governor Seyi Makinde to come to the aid of the people of Kisi and Igboho communities. 

Oyo collapsed bridge
Scene of the collapsed bridge

While reading the Motion on the Floor of the House on Tuesday, July 29, 2025, Salami said the bridges there collapsed due to heavy downpour in the early hours of Tuesday, July 22, 2025, leading to devastating floods that ravaged the ongoing construction of the Saki-Ogbooro-Igboho Road. 

Furthermore, the House has directed the Chairman of Irepo Local Government Area to urgently swing into action to rehabilitate the collapsed bridge along Ajangba to National Open University Road, Kisi, to ease vehicular movement and reinforce economic activities within the area.

Meanwhile, the Oyo State House of Assembly has passed the Council of Obas and Chiefs (Further Amendments) Bill, 2025. The passage followed consideration of the report submitted by the Committee on Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs during yesterday’s plenary session, presided over by Speaker Adebo Ogundoyin.

The law makers reconvened on the Tuesday, July 29 after their last adjournment last week and passed the council of oba further amendments bill 2025 after the consideration of the house committee on local government and chieftaincy matter. 

The lawmakers while applauding the report, the clause 5 of section 28 of the Chieftaincy Law was amended which will enable chairmanship and deputy chairmanship be rotated across the seven geo-political zones of Oyo State.

Also, the House in deliberation unanimously agreed to pass the bill to effect the amendment as to enhance traditional leadership skills in Oyo State.

On Tuesday, the House approved the committee reports on Civil Service Commission Nominees, and petitions raised by some Post-Teaching Service Commission (TESCOM) Staff who have been denied salary since July, respectively.

By Omowumi Abraham

With stronger policies, plastic leakage could fall by over 95% in Southeast and East Asia by 2050 – Report

Michael Simire
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0
With stronger policies, plastic leakage could fall by over 95% in Southeast and East Asia by 2050 – Report

Southeast and East Asia plays a central role in the global effort to tackle plastic pollution, given its substantial share of the global economy, strategic position in plastics value chains and rapidly rising plastics demand, according to a new OECD report.

The Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia – focusing on ASEAN Plus Three (APT) countries, comprising the 10 ASEAN Member States as well as the People’s Republic of China (China), Japan and Korea – shows that plastics use in the region has surged almost nine-fold since 1990, reaching 152 million tonnes (Mt) in 2022.

Mathias Cormann
OECD Secretary-General, Mathias Cormann

The region now accounts for almost one-third of global plastics use, with annual per capita use ranging from 32 kg in lower middle-income countries to over 100 kg in many upper middle- and high-income countries in the APT region. In 2022, the region leaked 8.4 Mt of plastics into the environment – over one-third of the global total, including 3.5 Mt from ASEAN Member States and 4.9 Mt from China. Plastic leakage refers to any plastic that enters the terrestrial or aquatic environment, resulting from inadequate collection and disposal. This includes plastic waste, such as packaging or beverage cups, that is littered or openly dumped.

The report finds that by 2050, plastics use is projected to reach 280 Mt per year, with plastic leakage projected to increase by 68% to 14.1 Mt per year. The report presents a High Stringency scenario that shows how comprehensive action across the plastic lifecycle could reduce use by 28%, more than quadruple regional recycling rates to 54%, and reduce mismanaged waste by 97% in the region by 2050, compared to Baseline projections.

“Southeast and East Asia can become a global model in tackling plastic pollution and advancing circular economy solutions for plastic waste,” said OECD Secretary-General, Mathias Cormann. “With stronger regional co-operation, ambitious policies and targeted investments, the region can almost completely eliminate plastic leakage by 2050, delivering lasting benefits for people, the environment and the global economy.”

The estimated macroeconomic cost of a High Stringency scenario – equivalent to 0.8% of regional GDP in 2050 – is unevenly distributed. ASEAN lower middle-income countries face a steeper cost (2.8% of GDP on average), underscoring the need for enhanced regional co-operation and international support.

Despite challenges, including rising waste generation that outpaces waste management in a region that is highly diverse in terms of income levels, plastics use and capacity to manage it, significant progress is being made. Most APT countries have adopted national action plans on plastic pollution and stepped-up regional co-operation. The average recycling rate in the region (12%) already exceeds the global average (10%), and efforts are underway to improve waste segregation at source, reduce littering and increase the use of recycled materials in manufacturing.

Effective strategies can be further tailored to local contexts and supported by investments in waste collection and recycling infrastructure, stronger regulatory frameworks, clear policy signals to unlock investments and support for the integration of informal waste workers.

The report was launched during a Green Talk LIVE webinar on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.

Land-based mitigation blind spot puts 25% of global emission reductions in the shadow – Study

Michael Simire
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0
Land-based mitigation blind spot puts 25% of global emission reductions in the shadow – Study

Net carbon sinks from land use and forestry could fall by half if business as usual practices continue and would increase in line with climate plans only if new support is provided to developing countries

International Day of Carbon Emission Reduction
Carbon emission

Twenty-five per cent of emissions reductions pledged by countries rely on land-based carbon mitigation – and these reductions are in jeopardy, according to a new study published on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, in Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment.

Developing countries such as the DRC, Indonesia and Ethiopia’s ability to meet the land-based commitments in their climate plans – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – are conditional on financial and institutional support being provided, which is currently lacking.

The research highlights how the scale of land-based carbon mitigation is invisible in the 2023 first Global Stocktake (GST), which closed at the end of UN Climate talks in Dubai. This new research helps close this information gap by systematically analysing, for the first time, how land was included in the last set of NDCs (NDC 2020), which detail planned emissions reductions to 2030.

The primary reason for the GST land blind spot is a conceptual disparity between how countries report land-use based greenhouse gases, and how global models compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – that are used as a benchmark under the Paris Agreement to track progress- are constructed for land. This lack of data comparability builds on previous studies showing net zero progress could be overblown by as much as 18% as a result. 

Academics argue that reconciling these differences is crucial because land is the only sector currently capable of removing carbon at scale from the atmosphere, a necessary condition for reaching net zero CO2 and stabilising global temperatures. 

The first GST highlighted the benchmarks to be hit by 2030 if the planet is to remain on track for the Paris Agreement temperature goals (1.5 and 2 degrees C). It is expected to be re-visited and expanded upon as part of UN Climate talks, COP30, in Brazil later this year.  Governments now have to submit the next set of NDCs with enhanced ambition, based on the GST, by this September. This new analysis raises fresh concerns ahead of climate talks that new plans won’t include the necessary action to curb global emissions.

Giacomo Grassi, Bureau member of the IPCC task force on GHG inventories, said: “If Net Zero CO2 is the destination, which is needed to stabilise global temperatures, the scientific models are the navigation system we’re using to get there, and the car dashboard is what countries are using to check progress. A major problem that we already identified is that one is speaking in miles per hour, and the other in kilometers. We think we’re getting there faster than we are as a consequence.

“There’s a mismatch in the definition of what constitutes an anthropogenic forest carbon sink, i.e. the sink that can be counted towards meeting countries’ climate targets. This has crucial consequences for our ability to assess global climate progress in line with the Paris Agreement. If we don’t accurately assess where we are, we can’t accurately correct our trajectory towards net zero.” 

Data analysed in the study shows that governments around the world are reporting that the net carbon sink has been slightly increasing globally. Meanwhile, climate impacts such as fires and droughts are putting at risk land’s ability to soak up carbon.

The paper finds for the first time that approximately two-thirds of the land-based pledges for 2030 stems from emissions reductions, largely from reduced deforestation, while one-third comes from the creation of new land sinks via tree planting and forest restoration

Dr. Rebekah Shirley, Deputy Director for Africa, World Resources Institute, said: “Countries in the Global South steward most of the planet’s standing forests and carbon sinks – yet are expected to shoulder global climate stability without equitable finance. Building robust, green and resilient economic pathways requires the fiscal space to invest in nature-based development, debt frameworks that reflect climate risks and nature benefits in resource allocation, and scaling solutions that help reward stewardship. COP30’s expected operationalisation of the Tropical Forest Finance Facility offers a historic opportunity to place nature, biodiversity, and resilience at the heart of the global climate agenda.”

Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, lead author, said: “Our study highlights that in the second submission of countries’ pledges (NDC 2020), land remains a highly relevant global sector for mitigation, retaining a quarter of the global pledges. Without the active role of global land sinks in stabilizing the increase of emissions from other sectors, the goals of the Paris Agreement simply cannot be reached.  Modelled pathways rely on large amounts of additional sinks to retain the 2C goal.

“While we reduce other sectors emissions, it is vital we ensure enough support and sustainable consumption patterns are promoted to tackle deforestation and enhance global land sinks. At the same time, retaining current and additional land sinks will become more challenging under worsening climate conditions, highlighting the risk of over-dependence on land sinks for mitigation progress.”

The 25% of emissions reductions coming from land in NDCs are mostly unlikely to happen without financial and institutional support being provided, according to the analysis. The authors highlight how current financial options, crucial to support global mitigation efforts, have been under-resourced for decades. This includes activities that were intended to fund forests, such as REDD+ mechanisms.  Even with appropriate funding, land-related pledges by 2030 will have to compete with alternative land development programs, such as agro-commodity expansion, petrol operations, and mining.

Scientists argue that data translation between communities estimating land carbon emissions and removals is needed to address the current blind spot. They suggest that future Global Stocktakes should incorporate countries’ data on land, and enhanced monitoring and reporting.

There should also be apple-to-apple comparability between IPCC models and NDC commitments. While land and forests should be incorporated in economy-wide mitigation commitments, land-based pledges should be separated from other mitigation efforts to more easily understand their drivers and threats. 

New emerging financial solutions such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility are expected to be launched at the UN Climate Summit, COP30, in Brazil later this year. The fund aims to financially incentivise keeping forests standing. 

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