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Lagos urges govt/residents’ collaboration for sustainable development

Michael Simire
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Lagos urges govt/residents’ collaboration for sustainable development

Lagos State Deputy Gov., Obafemi Hamzat, has called for collaboration between government and citizens to drive development.

Obafemi Hamzat
Lagos State Deputy Gov., Obafemi Hamzat

Hamzat made the call at the grand finale of the Ikorodu Oga Day Festival held at the king’s palace on Saturday, November 16, 2024.

The Ikorodu Oga Day Festival is an annual celebration which has been running for over 30 years.

The festival showcases the community’s rich cultural heritage and tourism potential.

The deputy governor commended residents of Ikorodu for their support, cooperation and peaceful coexistence.

He urged them to continue to support the state government to bring more dividends of democracy to them.

According to him, with continued collaboration between the state government and the residents, Ikorodu is poised for sustained growth and development.

Sen. Adetokunbo Abiru (Lagos East) also praised the people of Ikorodu for their support and urged them to work in synergy to foster development in the community.

Rep. Babajimi Benson, Chairman, House Committee on Defence, expressed gratitude to traditional rulers in Ikorodu as well as other residents for organising the festival.

Benson gave the assurance that more developmental projects would be implemented in the community in fulfillment of his election campaign promises.

“The projects I facilitated were to give dividends of democracy to my community as a result of the massive votes delivered to me during the elections,” he said.

Oba Kabir Shotobi, the Ayangburen of Ikorodu, also thanked Lagos State Government and other stakeholders for contributing to the development of Ikorodu.

“Today, I see the impact of government in Ikorodu, the state government is committed to infrastructure development and improving the lives of the residents.

“The government has initiated various projects aimed at enhancing socio-economic development and mitigating rural-urban migration,” he said.

Mr Rotimi Erogbogbo, Chairman of the Ikorodu Development Association, called for continued unity among stakeholders in Ikorodu.

He emphasised the need for a shared vision and strategy to drive progress in the community.

Erogbogbo urged Lagos State Government to provide more dividends of democracy to Ikorodu residents.

Erogbogbo highlighted the significance of the festival, saying that it was about celebrating culture, values and commitment to hard work and selflessness.

“This festival is not just about culture, it is also about celebrating our successes and progress, and the heights we aim to reach,” he said.

The highpoint of the event was presentation of N100,000 to each of selected 79 indigent students in higher institutions of learning.

Also, notable individuals were recognised for contributions to societal development.

Members of Lagos State House of Assembly, chieftains of All Progressives Congress, traditional rulers, community leaders and others attended the event.

By Oluwatope Lawanson and Adepote Arowojobe

Brazil to promote sustainable planet at 2024 G20 summit

Michael Simire
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Brazil to promote sustainable planet at 2024 G20 summit

All is set for global leaders to deliberate on promoting a just world and sustainable planet at the 19th Heads of State and Government Summit of the Group of 20 (G20) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Lula da Silva
Lula da Silva, President of Brazil

In line with this agenda, Mr. Lula da Silva, President of Brazil, has declared a three-point agenda of combating hunger, poverty and inequality at the summit scheduled to hold from Nov. 18 to Nov. 19, 2024.

The summit, with the theme: “Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet”, shall focus on three dimensions of sustainable development – economic, social, and environmental – and the reform of global governance.

It shall also highlight the rising of global temperatures and the principles of digital economy, among other themes.

This Brazilian presidency will also treat as priority, the Israel-Hamas war and rising bloc confrontation between the United States and China.

The conclusion of the work carried out by the country holding the G20 rotating presidency is usually presented at the annual summit.

It is the moment when heads of state and government approve the agreements negotiated throughout the year and point out ways of dealing with global challenges.

The Leaders’ Summit, the climax of the G20 work carried out over the year through Ministerial Meetings, Working Groups, and Engagement Groups, would be presented for adoption at the summit.

The summit will be attended by 19 member countries that include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India and Indonesia.

Others are Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the UK and the US.

Brazil has held the Presidency of the G20 from Dec. 1, 2023.  That tenure ends on Nov. 30.

Da Silva is living no stone unturned in preparation for the 2024 G20 summit.

Right from the airports in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, city centres, and other locations, visitors are inundated with signposts with various inscriptions announcing the summit.

As at Saturday, major parts of Rio de Janeiro, such as Flamingo, Botafogo, and Lapa, enjoyed heavy security presence, with armoured tanks and armed police vans strategically located within the areas.

Mr. Julius Dacosta, a resident of Botafogo, said that the country’s president was taking advantage of the summit to show case advances made by Brazil in the economy, technology, transportation and others in recent times.

“There is no better opportunity for the country to market itself while hosting over 50 world leaders, both G20 members and others invited.

“It is an avenue to promote the cause of a just world and sustainable planet. However, it is a window for Brazil to show case itself to the world as an emerging economic power house,” said Dacosta.

President Tinubu is expected to attend the 2024 G20 summit as the organisers have invited representatives of the African Union and the European Union.

Mr Carlos Areias, Brazilian Ambassador to Nigeria, conveyed President Da Silva’s invitation to Tinubu to attend the 2024 G20 summit on Aug. 29, when he presented his Letter of Credence to him.

Areias had said Da Silva was looking forward to welcoming President Tinubu to the G20 Leaders’ Summit, saying that food security was the main proposal of the Brazilian presidency at the G20 to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.

By Salif Atojoko

UN climate chief to G20 Leaders: Climate crisis should be order of business

Michael Simire
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UN climate chief to G20 Leaders: Climate crisis should be order of business

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, in a message issued ahead of the G20 Leaders’ Summit from November 18 to 19, 2024, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, says that climate finance is the core business

Simon Stiell
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change

As G20 Leaders head to Rio de Janeiro, the world is watching and expecting strong signals that climate action is core business for the world’s biggest economies.

The G20 was created to tackle problems that no one country, or group of countries, can tackle alone. On that basis, the global climate crisis should be order of business Number One, in Rio next week.

Climate impacts are already ripping shreds out of every G20 economy, wrecking lives, pummeling supply chains and food prices, and fanning inflation. Bolder climate action is basic self-preservation for every G20 economy. Without rapid cuts in emissions, no G20 economy will be spared from climate-driven economic carnage.

But there is also a good news story, which starts with the number 2 trillion – that’s how many US dollars will flow to clean energy and infrastructure this year alone. Double what’s gone to fossil fuels. Some G20 countries are already taking a big slice of this fast-growing clean energy boom.

Boosting global climate finance is about ensuring all countries can share in the vast benefits of bolder climate action: stronger growth, more jobs, less pollution, and more secure and affordable energy.

And ensuring all countries can build resilience into their parts of global supply chains.
Stepping it up on climate finance globally requires action both inside our COP process and outside of it.

Here in Baku negotiators are working around the clock on a new climate finance goal. There is a long way to go, but everyone is very aware of the stakes, at the halfway point in the COP.

Climate finance progress outside of our process is equally crucial, and the G20’s role is mission-critical.

Next week’s Summit must send crystal clear global signals.

That more grant and concessional finance will be available.

That further reform of multilateral development banks is a top priority, and G20 governments – as their shareholders and taskmasters – will keep pushing for more reforms.

That debt relief is a crucial part of the solution, so that vulnerable countries are not hamstrung by debt servicing costs that make bolder climate actions all-but impossible – the G20 forum should make progress on this.

Finally, in turbulent times and a fracturing world – G20 Leaders must signal loud and clear that international cooperation is still the best and only chance humanity has to survive global heating. There is no other way.

Brazilian Indigenous movement calls for decisive action against climate crisis at G20 Summit

Michael Simire
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Brazilian Indigenous movement calls for decisive action against climate crisis at G20 Summit

With a symbolic protest, the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB) held a peaceful demonstration in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, November 16, 2024, to denounce the inaction of the world’s wealthiest and most polluting nations in addressing the global climate crisis. Images of leaders from rich and polluting countries – China, the United States, India, the European Union, Russia, and Japan – were placed in the water before the iconic Sugarloaf Mountain to emphasise that the climate crisis is also a crisis of leadership and values.

G20
Demonstrators stand before the images of leaders from rich and polluting countries – China, the United States, India, the European Union, Russia, and Japan – placed in the water before the iconic Sugarloaf Mountain

The action occurred two days before the G20 summit, a gathering of the world’s largest economies, which will be held in the same city. It marks the launch of Indigenous mobilisation toward the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which will take place in Brazil next year. The group demands that the demarcation of Indigenous lands be recognised as climate policy and an effective solution to the climate crisis, and they assert their right to an active, leading role in global decisions affecting the planet’s future.

“Strong and effective action must be taken with the imminent collapse of living conditions worldwide. There will be no preservation of life on a planet in flames,” declares the statement issued by the Brazilian Indigenous movement on Saturday. “We have never ceased to defend life, and we will not be lost in empty discussions and hollow commitments. While governments continue to negotiate inadequate targets and insufficient funding, we want to announce that from now on, we will take the lead in a global mobilisation for life on the planet.”

The campaign, “We Are the Answer,” demands a genuine commitment to the planet’s future, emphasising the need for immediate action and the central role of Indigenous peoples in fighting the environmental crisis.

With the February deadline for submitting updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) fast approaching, the action, with support partners 350.org and ClimaInfo emphasised that the responsibility to act decisively falls on the nations contributing most to the climate emergency. As the host nation of COP30, Brazil has a unique opportunity to set the tone for global ambition. Still, it will take collective action from the G20 to drive the transformative change needed to address the escalating climate crisis.

With G20 countries accounting for more than 80% of global wealth and approximately 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, the pressure for real solutions has never been more significant.

A study by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, affiliated with the UN, indicates that developing countries (excluding China) will need annual investments of $2.4 trillion by 2030 to tackle the climate crisis. These funds would go towards nature conservation, transitioning to renewable energy, and adapting to climate change.

Nevertheless, the recent failure at the Biodiversity COP in October and the $7 trillion in subsidies provided to oil companies in 2022 reveal the low global commitment to climate and biodiversity financing.

“It is urgent to correct this policy that puts the profits of big corporations above the protection of communities. The richest nations must take responsibility and fund climate solutions for those who, like Indigenous peoples, are on the front lines of the crisis,” says Dinaman Tuxá, executive coordinator of APIB.

At COP26 in 2021, countries like the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands promised $1.7 billion to support Indigenous peoples. However, only 7% of that amount has been directly allocated to Indigenous organisations without intermediaries.

“The money exists, but it is not going where it should—enough of passing the problem onto the next generation. We need political courage, especially from the wealthiest nations, to end the use of fossil fuels once and for all, accelerate a fair transition, and fund those who have done the most to address the climate crisis. We are the true climate authorities,” concludes Kleber Karipuna, executive coordinator of APIB.

COP29: Nigeria advocates a collaborative approach to decarbonisation

Michael Simire
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0
COP29: Nigeria advocates a collaborative approach to decarbonisation

As the first week of COP29 ended over the weekend, Dr. Nkiruka Maduekwe, Director General of Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), addressed the press, highlighting key themes and Africa’s unwavering stance on critical issues.

Dr. Nkiruka Maduekwe
Dr. Nkiruka Maduekwe, Director General of Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change (NCCC)

Dr. Maduekwe emphasised the intensity of ongoing negotiations, with week two expected to be even more crucial. She reiterated Africa’s firm position on reforming the global financial architecture to ensure climate action doesn’t translate into further debt burdens for the continent.

Recognising the ambition of Africa’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), she stressed the need for innovative financial solutions like blended finance, and a clear distinction between development finance and climate finance.

Methane has emerged as a major focus at COP29, with high-level meetings organised by China and the United States, alongside numerous side events.

Dr. Maduekwe underscored the importance of addressing short-lived climate pollutants like methane and black carbon, recognising their significant impact on global warming. She also revealed that Nigeria signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China on methane mitigation, hinting at a potential support announcement in the coming week.

Addressing concerns about nuclear energy, Dr. Maduekwe affirmed Nigeria’s commitment to safety, highlighting the role of the national nuclear regulatory agency. She positioned clean nuclear energy as a viable option for diversifying the country’s energy mix.

On the topic of Just Transition, Dr. Maduekwe stressed the importance of inclusivity, particularly the involvement of the oil and gas sector. Acknowledging the historical role of fossil fuels in Nigeria’s development, she advocated for a collaborative approach to decarbonisation, ensuring a clean, just, and equitable transition for all stakeholders. She expressed satisfaction with the active participation of the oil and gas sector in high-level discussions at COP29.

With week one setting the stage for intensified negotiations, Africa’s call for financial reform and the global focus on methane reduction are poised to dominate discussions in the days to come.

By Offiong Effiwatt

Almost 500 carbon capture advocates given access to COP29

Michael Simire
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0
Almost 500 carbon capture advocates given access to COP29

At least 480 lobbyists for companies and groups that advocate for a misguided technology that prolongs fossil fuel use have gained access to the COP29 climate talks, according to a new analysis conducted by the Centre for International Environmental Law (CIEL).

COP29
COP29 entrance

The number of Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage lobbyists is higher than the core delegations from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union combined. Nearly half (209) are attending as members of national delegations, enabling them to lobby more directly and effectively with governments during the negotiations. The COP29 Presidency invited 55 as guests.

The number of carbon capture lobbyists has increased compared to last year’s at COP28 in Dubai (475), despite the overall number of participants being significantly lower in Baku (52,504 compared to 81,027 in Dubai. Figures exclude media and support staff).  

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), also known as CCUS when it includes “utilisation”, is a key topic at COP29, with lobbyists advocating for its implementation as a climate solution. 

CCS is a lifeline for the coal, oil, and gas industries as they pursue ways to avoid effective climate action. Worryingly, their attempts to preserve their business are showing results – increasingly national climate plans bet on these unreliable technologies.

CCS purports to enable polluters to “manage” their carbon dioxide emissions by trapping them and injecting them underground or underneath the seabed or using them in industrial processes.

But this technology has a decades-long history of overpromising and underdelivering, with 78% of large-scale projects cancelled or put on hold. 

“We are witnessing fossil fuel greenwashing by those attempting to delay the inevitable fossil fuels phaseout. This large presence of lobbyists is a confirmation that the carbon capture industry is working hard to promote the misguided CCS technology. But governments and companies simply cannot ‘clean’ their coal, oil, and gas by capturing and ‘managing’ emissions: CCS has repeatedly failed to deliver,” said CIEL International Carbon Capture Campaigner, Rachel Kennerley.

“The significant number of CCS lobbyists at COP29 highlights the fossil fuel industry’s substantial investment in attempting to secure its future, despite the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels. While CCS promotion continues within the corridors and meeting rooms of the climate talks, the real impacts will be out in the real world. Investing in this expensive and unreliable technology will lock in fossil fuels and waste precious time and money that we cannot afford. Large-scale CCS transport and storage also comes with significant health and safety risks,” she added.

Many more representatives of fossil fuel companies and their supporters present in Baku may also be using COP29 to promote other carbon capture technologies such as Direct Air Capture, hoping to cover up their continued emissions. 

“If left unchecked, corporate capture – as demonstrated by the volume of fossil fuel lobbyists roaming the corridors and rooms of COP29 – will continue to impede progress towards climate action. It is long past time for the UNFCCC and States to address the obvious conflict of interest of allowing those who are harming the planet to influence the process of saving it,” said CIEL Senior Attorney, Erika Lennon.

“We need to reform the climate negotiations process and make sure the voices of people on the frontlines, not the voices of polluters, are taking center stage,” she added.

The CIEL analysis was released one day after the Kick Big Polluters Out Coalition reported that 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists gained access to this year’s climate talks.

African negotiators receive ‘voices of thousands’ petition demanding urgent climate action

Michael Simire
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0
African negotiators receive ‘voices of thousands’ petition demanding urgent climate action

Greenpeace Africa on Saturday, November 16, 2024, delivered a petition signed by 10,000 people to the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) at COP29.

Greenpeace Africa
Greenpeace Africa officials handing over the petition to AGN Chairman, Ali Mohamed

The petition, presented to AGN Chairman, Ali Mohamed, outlines key demands for an ambitious climate finance package, a renewable energy future and climate justice for Africa.

Murtala Touray, Programme Director at Greenpeace Africa, said: “This petition represents the voices of thousands of Africans who are already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change. We are calling on our negotiators to stand firm in demanding that fossil fuel companies pay their fair share for the damage they’ve caused to our communities and environment.”

The petition outlines key demands, including investments in renewable energy solutions, an immediate end to new fossil fuel projects, and ensuring climate finance reaches vulnerable communities. It also calls for concrete mechanisms to make polluters pay and the rejection of false solutions like carbon offsetting.

Fred Njehu, Pan-African Political Strategist for Greenpeace Africa, said: “Africa’s future must be renewable, not fossil-fueled. Our climate negotiators have a historic opportunity at COP29 to champion real sustainable solutions that will protect our communities and ecosystems. We need bold leadership that prioritises people over profits and ensures a just transition to renewable energy systems across the continent.”

While accepting the document, Ambassador Ali Mohamed, Chair of the African Group of Negotiators, said: “We are all on the same page. We are going to support the position of the African CSOs and communities in our negotiations. I’m looking forward to working with you and responding to the challenges our different communities face. We look forward to a successful COP outcome.”

The petition handover, according to Greenpeace, comes at a crucial time as African nations seek to secure meaningful commitments for climate action and financial support under a new collective and quantified climate goal at COP29. Scientific Projections show that 118 million Africans could be at risk from climate-related disasters by 2030.

Greenpeace Africa climate campaigners and members of the Climate Justice Movement witnessed the handover ceremony. 

Solutions to deliver on global clean energy targets showcased at COP29

Michael Simire
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0
Solutions to deliver on global clean energy targets showcased at COP29

A year after the pivotal COP28 pledge to double energy efficiency and triple renewable capacity by 2030, two major advocates in the energy transition – the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) and the Solar Impulse Foundation (SIF) – have joined forces to launch “Double Down, Triple Up – 20 Solutions in Action”.

Bertrand Piccard
Bertrand Piccard, Initiator and Chairman of the Solar Impulse Foundation

The initiative aims to encourage ambitious NDCs and accelerate progress towards global climate targets by showcasing 20 implemented solution cases that demonstrate achievable pathways towards renewables and energy efficiency goals.

The project builds upon the “Double Down, Triple Up” campaign which was instrumental in securing the global target adopted at COP28. “Triple Up” highlights the urgency to scale global renewable capacity threefold by 2030 through strategic investments, policy alignment, and innovation in solar, wind, and other clean technologies to meet rising global demand sustainably. “Double Down” underscores energy efficiency as a rapid, cost-effective approach for reducing CO2 emissions, enabling countries to decrease energy demand while boosting energy security.

“Double Down, Triple Up: 20 Solutions in Action” is a contribution to show that substantial emissions reductions are within reach when businesses, governments, and communities adopt practical, scalable technologies aligned with renewable energy and efficiency targets. For energy efficiency, this could mean better building insulation to reduce heating and cooling demands, harnessing waste heat in industry, and applying precision farming to cut down on chemical use. For renewables, it involves expanding solar manufacturing, integrating projects with ecosystem restoration, and enhancing urban sustainability through smart city infrastructure.

Bringing concrete examples of energy efficiency and renewable deployment together highlights the interconnected roles of both dimensions as essential to a just and sustainable energy future. Meeting these dual targets could deliver 80% of the emissions reductions needed to keep global warming within 1.5°C, helping phase out fossil fuels and build economic resilience worldwide. By simultaneously increasing clean energy supply and cutting energy demand, this approach optimises the use of renewables, reduces fossil fuel dependency, and ensures a more stable, affordable energy landscape, which is especially vital for emerging markets and developing economies.

“With increasing global electricity demand, the combination of increased renewables and energy efficiency is essential to avoid the need for additional fossil fuels. Smart, scalable and profitable solutions already exist and the amazing examples in this report provide just a snapshot of what is possible. Meeting our 2030 targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency will help deliver a clean, secure and just energy transition, not simply energy addition,” said Bruce Douglas, CEO of GRA.

“This project with the Solar Impulse Foundation exemplifies how achievable these targets are, with case studies from around the world showing real solutions in action. By investing in both renewables and efficiency, we can strengthen energy security, create green jobs, and provide emerging economies with stable, affordable energy. COP29 is our call to turn these inspiring examples into global action and policy change, moving us closer to a clean, secure, and just energy future for all,” he added. 

“Climate action needs everyone on board, from the green activists to the economic sector. It is precisely what renewable energies and energy efficiency allow us to do now: cheaper sources of clean energy and huge financial savings by putting an end to the current  waste of 2/3 of the energy production. With this initiative, the Solar Impulse Foundation together with the Global Renewables Alliance present 20 real-world solutions that support this narrative and push for change.

“It is an inspiring challenge showcasing what many still see as impossible: to build a ‘qualitative economy’ that reduces consumption and waste, not by shrinking the economy or leaving people behind, but by promoting efficiency and replacing polluting practices with environmentally protective ones,” said Bertrand Piccard, Initiator and Chairman of the Solar Impulse Foundation.

With the project launch at COP29, GRA and SIF invite global leaders and innovators to leverage these success stories and act. Both organisations are said to be central advocates for an actionable energy transition, aiming to secure stronger policy commitments and drive investor support.

TotalEnergies deploys methane emissions detection equipment on upstream assets

Michael Simire
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0
TotalEnergies deploys methane emissions detection equipment on upstream assets

As part of its ambition to aim for near-zero methane emissions by 2030, TotalEnergies may be going a step further in the monitoring and reduction of its methane emissions with the deployment of continuous, real-time detection equipment at all of its operated Upstream sites.

TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies

TotalEnergies disclosed that it has, since 2022, been pursuing an ambition to aim for near-zero methane operated emissions in 2030: the Company will meet as soon as 2024 its target to reduce emissions by 50% compared to 2020, a year ahead of plan.

“TotalEnergies is thus well on track to achieve the targeted 80% reduction by 2030. This achievement is the result of numerous initiatives, including the successful deployment of its AUSEA drone campaigns,” the organisation disclosed.

Complementing its portfolio of detection technologies already in place, TotalEnergies is installing continuous detection equipment on all its operated Upstream assets, enabling real-time identification of methane emissions, both fugitive and stationary, and immediate corrective actions to stop them.

This continuous detection plan will be fully implemented by end-2025 and will use existing and proven technologies such as loT sensors, InfraRed cameras, flowmeters and Predictive Emissions Monitoring Systems on combustion sources.

Continuous, real-time detection on this scale – both for existing facilities and projects under development, such as the GranMorgu FPSO in Suriname – is a pioneering move in the industry and sets a new standard for the Company.

“Slashing down methane emissions is a short-term priority to contribute to the fight against climate change. Continuous, real-time detection will enable our operators to act in an even more decisive manner in order to reduce our methane emissions and to repair leaks to achieve our near-zero methane emissions ambition.

“As a champion of the Oil & Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC), I am proud that TotalEnergies is leading the way in deploying such equipment at large scale and we will continue to work with the industry to share best practices in measuring and fighting methane emissions,” said Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies.

Study: Four global policies could eliminate over 90% of plastic waste by 2050

Michael Simire
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0
Study: Four global policies could eliminate over 90% of plastic waste by 2050

A new study released in Science on Thursday, November 14, 2024, determines that just four policies can reduce mismanaged plastic waste – plastic that isn’t recycled or properly disposed of and ends up as pollution – by 91% and plastic-related greenhouse gasses by one-third.

Plastic waste pollution
Plastic waste pollution

The policies are: mandate new products be made with 40% post-consumer recycled plastic; cap new plastic production at 2020 levels; invest significantly in plastic waste management – such as landfills and waste collection services; and implement a small fee on plastic packaging. This policy package also delivers climate benefits, reducing emissions equivalent to taking 300 million gasoline-powered vehicles off the road for one year.

The study, “Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” by researchers at the University of California Berkeley and the University of California Santa Barbara, comes in advance of negotiations in Busan, Republic of Korea (November 25-December 1, 2024), where delegates from more than 190 countries are expected to iron out the final details of the world’s first legally binding treaty on plastic pollution.

“This is it. These upcoming negotiations in Busan are our one chance to come together as a planet and fix this problem,” said Dr. Douglas McCauley, Professor at UC Santa Barbara, Adjunct Professor at UC Berkeley. “One of the most exciting discoveries in this research is that it is actually possible to nearly end plastic pollution with this Treaty. I’m cautiously optimistic, but we can’t squander this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

If no action is taken in Busan, annual plastic consumption will rise 37% between 2020 and 2050, and plastic pollution will nearly double across the same period.

“This study demonstrates how far we have come in not just quantifying the manifold problems surrounding plastics, but also in identifying and evaluating potential solutions,” said Dr. Roland Geyer, Professor of Industrial Ecology, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at UC Santa Barbara. “I am very proud of what our team was able to achieve in time for the final round of negotiations for the Global Plastics Treaty.”

By continuing with business as usual, the world would generate enough litter between 2011 and 2050 to cover Manhattan in a heap of plastic 10 times the height of the Empire State Building. In a business-as-usual future, greenhouse gas emissions related to plastic would jump 37% from 2020 levels to 3.35 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2050 – this is the same as nearly 9,000 natural gas-fired power plants operating for one year or the energy use for more than 436 million homes for one year.

“There are multiple pathways available to negotiators, but it does require ambition,” said Sam Pottinger, Senior Research Data Scientist, Eric and Wendy Schmidt Centre for Data Science and Environment at UC Berkeley. “The impact that we’re really hoping to see on the treaty is that it is data-informed. As the treaty comes to its final conclusion before ratification, we want folks to be aware of how much progress they’ve actually made, at least according to the best science that we have available right now.”

Countries in the Global South will continue to bear the greatest burden of the plastic crisis. Financing mechanisms created in the treaty could drive much-needed investment into waste management and recycling infrastructure in these regions to reduce plastic pollution – thus helping to solve a major global environmental justice issue.  

“I’m optimistic about a sustainable future,” said Dr. Nivedita Biyani, Researcher on Global Plastic Modeling, Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory at UC Santa Barbara. “This policy work shows that we can reach minimal mismanaged plastic waste if we can come together in action. This provides policymakers with a novel tool that isn’t prescriptive – they can combine various policies as they see fit. Going forward, I think a mechanism to gather data on plastic production and trade will be a key factor. We need supply chain transparency here.”

The study is built on insights from an AI-generated tool developed by a team of plastic researchers, data scientists, and AI researchers at the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory and Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at University of California Santa Barbara, and the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment at University of California, Berkeley.

The tool uses machine learning to combine information about population growth and economic trends to forecast the future of plastic production, pollution and trade.

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