What is the NCQG?

The NCQG unveiled at COP29, promises to raise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to support developing nations in combating the climate crisis. Within this broader target, developed nations committed to providing $300 billion annually through public finance triple the current $100 billion pledge. However, much of the remaining funds are expected to come from private investments and voluntary contributions.

On paper, this is a step forward, a glimmer of hope for nations vulnerable to climate change. But a closer look reveals deep cracks in the foundation of this agreement. For Africa, a continent facing existential climate threats, the NCQG feels less like a lifeline and more like an empty gesture.

Why NCQG Matters to Africa

The stakes could not be higher for Africa. Climate change is not a distant concern but a present and intensifying crisis. Families in the Sahel are grappling with droughts that leave their fields barren, while coastal communities in West Africa battle rising seas that swallow homes and livelihoods. Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions, yet it suffers some of the worst consequences of the climate crisis. To address these challenges, Africa needs massive investments – not just to adapt to a warming planet but to transition to clean energy and build climate-resilient economies. Leaders across the continent have made it clear: Africa requires at least $1.3 trillion annually to meet these goals. Yet, the NCQG allocates just $300 billion in public finance, with no guarantees that these funds will be accessible or sufficient.

This makes COP29 for Africa another exercise in lofty rhetoric and empty promises, leaving vulnerable nations scrambling for scraps while developed countries once again evaded meaningful accountability. The much-touted New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance – a $300 billion annual pledge by 2035 – falls woefully short of the $1.3 trillion demanded by the Global South. Even worse, the paltry sum is padded with vague commitments from private investors, loans disguised as aid, and a weak “encouragement” for contributions from emerging economies like China. This is not solidarity; it’s a smokescreen.

Moreover, Africa is home to some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable populations. As the continent leaves Baku., the consensus is that it is leaving with little more than crumbs. The insistence on loans rather than grants perpetuates debt traps which shows the economic imperative of the deal. While the lack of tailored solutions for the continent underscores the disinterest of developed nations in addressing specific regional challenges. Promises of clean energy transitions and climate-resilient agriculture remain hollow without clear timelines, adequate funding, and genuine technology transfer.

Worse still, the NCQG’s reliance on private sector involvement sets a dangerous precedent. While private investments are framed as a solution, they open the door to exploitation under the guise of “climate action.” For African nations, this is not a partnership; it’s a transaction rigged against their interests. Again, accountability mechanisms are glaringly absent, allowing developed countries to celebrate their token gestures while sidestepping the real work of delivering funds on time and ensuring their effectiveness. The promise of transparent tracking systems remains an illusion, making it impossible to measure whether these commitments translate into tangible outcomes or remain stranded in boardroom discussions.

It is therefore an insurance deal without the premium. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell called the NCQG “an insurance policy for humanity,” emphasising its potential to safeguard billions of lives. But for many African nations, it feels like an insurance deal with no premiums paid. The $300 billion commitment, while significant, is a fraction of what’s needed. Worse, much of it is expected to come as loans or investments, not grants, further deepening the debt burdens of nations already struggling under economic pressure.

Imagine being a farmer in Kenya, watching your crops fail year after year due to unpredictable rains. Or a mother in Mozambique, rebuilding your home for the third time after another devastating cyclone. These communities need immediate, reliable support – not vague promises of private sector investments or voluntary contributions that may never come.

Another Race to the Bottom

The NCQG reflects a worrying shift in responsibility. By relying on voluntary contributions from emerging economies like China and heavily emphasising private investments, developed nations sidestep their historic obligations. This approach waters down the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” enshrined in the Paris Agreement. For African nations, this is more than a political maneuver – it’s a betrayal. It shifts the financial burden onto those least equipped to bear it, creating a race to the bottom where nations must compete for limited resources. Without binding commitments and transparent mechanisms, Africa risks being left behind once again, its people bearing the brunt of promises unfulfilled.

Way Forward: Turning Promises into Action

To transform promises into action, developed nations must honour their commitments with binding timelines, ensuring the $300 billion pledge materialises as real, accessible funding. Crucially, grants not loans must form the foundation of this financial support to avoid exacerbating the debt burdens of vulnerable nations. Africa’s unique challenges demand tailored solutions, including concessional financing, technology transfer, and debt relief. Regional initiatives, such as clean energy projects in East Africa or climate-resilient agriculture in the Sahel, require targeted backing to address specific needs effectively. Equally important are robust accountability mechanisms.

Transparent tracking systems must be implemented to ensure timely delivery and efficient utilisation of funds. Without such transparency, the NCQG risks becoming another empty promise. African nations must also unite with other developing countries to build solidarity and push for meaningful financial commitments at COP30 in Brazil. This collective strength will be vital in resisting attempts to dilute the obligations of wealthier nations. Although private investments have a role to play, they must align with Africa’s priorities.

Clear regulatory frameworks are essential to prevent exploitation and ensure that these investments genuinely benefit local communities. By focusing on these key actions, the NCQG can move beyond rhetoric to deliver tangible support, helping Africa and other vulnerable regions combat the climate crisis with dignity and resilience.

A Call for Climate Justice

The NCQG was meant to be a beacon of hope, a symbol of global solidarity. But for Africa, it risks becoming a mirage hence an optical illusion of progress that fades upon closer inspection. The climate crisis is not waiting for boardroom negotiations or incremental changes. Every missed commitment, every diluted promise, comes at a cost measured in lives, livelihoods, and lost futures. For Africa, COP29 was a bitter reminder that the global climate process remains skewed in favor of the wealthy. This was not a breakthrough; it was a betrayal. The road to COP30 in Brazil must be paved with real, enforceable commitments not the tired spectacle of broken promises and diluted ambition.

Africa deserves more than hollow pledges; it deserves justice. As the world looks to COP30, the voices of those on the frontlines must not be ignored. If the global community truly believes in an equitable future, it’s time to turn words into action, promises into progress, and goals into tangible change. Only then will the NCQG be more than an illusion – it will be a lifeline for a continent and a world in crisis.

By Dr Sadiq Austine Igomu Okoh