A sweltering summer heat dome that is baking much of the southern and central United States in intense heat and humidity is expected to expand into parts of the Northeast later this week.
In the wake of a relentless stretch of flash flooding triggered by slow-moving downpours and thunderstorms in recent weeks, an analysis by AccuWeather® expert meteorologists has confirmed that 2025 is on track to become one of the worst years ever on record for deadly and destructive flash flooding.
Summer heat dome expands this week
A long stretch of blistering heat is in the forecast for millions across the South and Plains, while breaks from the heat and humidity will become much more frequent in the Northeast.
AccuWeather® expert meteorologists say a northward bulge in the jet stream will develop while high pressure builds. This heat dome is expected to be very persistent. While the core of the heat dome may meander east –to west and back in the weeks ahead, it may linger through a good chunk of August.
Many locations that have avoided 100-degree heat so far this year, including Dallas and Houston, Little Rock, Oklahoma City and Wichita, Kansas, will rack up a string of triple digits in the days ahead.
“The bottom line is that this has the look of a long-lasting heat wave with limited rainfall,” AccuWeather® Senior Meteorologist, Chad Merrill, said. “Kansas City, Missouri, has not hit 100 degrees since Aug. 25, 2023, but is positioned to do so on multiple days during the upcoming heat dome.”
Following rounds of downpours and storms in some areas, it will take additional time for the ground to dry out in some areas. Very humid and steamy conditions are expected in many places as moisture is drawn into the air.
“The zone from central Texas into the Ozarks in Arkansas and Missouri still has wet soil from recent rain. The humidity levels will end up highest in this area, leading to extremely humid conditions this week. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will peak around 110-115 degrees this week in this zone,” Merrill explained. “Many cities from Nebraska and Missouri to Texas and Louisiana won’t get relief at night with low temperatures to range from the mid-70s to the low 80s.”
AccuWeather RealFeel™ Shade values, while not quite as high as in the sun, will still be in the upper 90s and 100s.
Merrill said drought conditions could worsen in some areas where the heat dome will prevent thunderstorms and downpours.
“Drought will expand through the central Plains by mid-August and worsen in Kansas and Nebraska, where there are already pockets of moderate to extreme drought,” Merrill said.
Some tropical moisture can push westward from the Gulf and into parts of central and southern Texas and spill northward from Mexico and into the Deserts, Rockies and High Plains in the form of periodic thunderstorms.
Heat to surge into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast later this week
After a brief stretch of days with lower humidity and noticeably cooler air early this week, a bubble of heat will break off from a searing heat dome over the middle of the United States later this week and surge into parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
“The late-week scorcher heading into the East will be a quick whiplash,” Merrill said. “The timing is in sync with the late-June surge in temperatures, but this one won’t last nearly as long.”
A backdoor cold front, a cold front the comes down from the north in New England, looks to squash the heat by Sunday.
“While the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have been no stranger to high humidity this summer, the mid-90s have only made an appearance once this month in Philadelphia,” Merrill said. “Detroit has only reached 92 degrees this month. New York City will reach well into the 90s Friday and Saturday, following only three days with highs in the 90s earlier this month. The short, hot and humid spell will be significant.”
The two-day stretch of hot and humid conditions will occur as the jet stream moves prior to discharging more cool air. AccuWeather® expert meteorologists say the pattern shift will bring fewer hot and humid days to the Northeast later this month.
A cool front will drop this weekend, pushing from the northeast and north, rather than the typical direction from the west and northwest. This setup will be similar to the backdoor cold front that ended the heat wave in late June. Backdoor fronts are named after their atypical movement from the northeast to the southwest. They typically cross the region during the middle of spring.
Temperatures may drop by 15-30 degrees in the wake of the front this upcoming weekend in some areas of the Northeast. Highs in the 90s will be replaced with highs in the 80s and even the 70s.
As each wave of cooler and less humid air collides with hot and humid air, rounds of thunderstorms are possible, including the risk of some severe thunderstorms.