Commissioning of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos is materially reshaping regional flows but does not eliminate import dependence.
This formed one of the key takeaways by participants at a webinar held on Tuesday, August 26, 2025, courtesy of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) and S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts).
Themed: “West Africa Fuels Landscape: Market Fundamentals and Geopolitical Drivers”, the virtual session examined how global geopolitics, changing trade flows and new regional refining capacity are reshaping West Africa’s refined products landscape.
Discussions focused on the impact of the Dangote refinery commissioning, shifting export channels from Europe, the role of Lomé as a flexible trading hub, recent price shocks including a Dangote FCC outage, and methodological innovations to better reflect how material trades in the Gulf of Guinea.
While stating that refinery outages remain major price drivers and that Lomé functions as a growing marginal hub providing flexible small clip supply and supporting price discovery, discussants concluded that policy stability, transparent regulation and investor confidence are critical to attract downstream investment that will strengthen supply resilience and influence domestic prices.
The webinar had opened with a safety briefing from Kingsley Ojimba, MEMAN Jetty Superintendent, covering remote event hygiene and question protocols, including chat and raise hand functions.
MEMAN Chairman, Mr. Huub Stokman, framed the event as timely following Nigeria’s move to full fuel price deregulation, emphasising that rising local refining capacity changes the supply landscape and that MEMAN would support market transparency, benchmarking and coordinated stakeholder engagement during the transition.
Gary Clark, Associate Editorial Director for EMEA Clean Refined Products at S&P Global Commodity Insights, speaking on “Current Supply, Demand, and Pricing Dynamics in Europe and West Africa”, discussed gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel markets, and stressed supply resilience in the face of geopolitical disruption, including effects from Russia, Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. He highlighted weaker European demand fundamentals such as inflation and slower growth.
Clark noted that Dangote’s ramp up has reshaped flows, retaining much gasoil in West Africa and exporting some jet fuel internationally, which reduces but does not eliminate import dependence. He also noted that outages and maintenance can quickly reintroduce import needs and market volatility.
Mrs. Ogechi Nkwoji, Head, Economic Intelligence Research and Regulation at MEMAN, speaking on “Demystifying the Lomé Petroleum Market”, presented the ex-Lomé hub as a pragmatic offshore trading solution that evolved from onshore bottlenecks and declining domestic refinery performance.
She added that large cargoes are discharged into floating storage off Togo and sold in smaller 5 to 20 kiloton parcels to regional buyers, chiefly Nigerian marketers.
Matthew Tracey-Cook, Senior Price Reporter, EMEA Gasoline & West Africa Refined Products, S&P Global Community Insights, speaking on “Gasoline outlook”, reviewed European gasoline trends, seasonal quality premiums for summer blends and the links between European dynamics and West African markets. He observed that crack spreads have been softer relative to the post COVID and Russia Ukraine period, driven in part by reduced transatlantic arbitrage and lower exports to West Africa following Dangote’s commissioning.
Tracey-Cook highlighted a sharp rally in gasoline cracks in August after an FCC outage at Dangote, with implied cracks moving from about thirteen dollars per barrel to above seventeen dollars per barrel. This episode underscored how Dangote outages can have outsized impacts on Atlantic basin product balances and prompt market backwardation.
MEMAN’s CEO and Executive Secretary, Mr. Clement Isong, reaffirmed MEMAN’s commitment to leverage the partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights for ongoing media education and stakeholder engagement on pricing and product flows.