The Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP) has released a scoping paper titled “On the Road to COP30 and Beyond: Developing an Effective NDCs-LT-LEDS to Guide Africa’s Sustainable Development.” The paper examined the continent-wide landscape of Africa’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), assessing ambition, governance readiness, net-zero commitments, and the presence of implementation frameworks.
With most nations missing the initial deadline and now racing to meet the extended deadline for the 3rd round of NDCs in September 2025, this report draws lessons from five case countries – Nigeria, Kenya, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe – and finds that while most African countries have submitted NDCs, implementation remains weak, driven mainly by severe finance shortfalls.
While the paper lauded African countries for ambitious commitments in NDCs, it lamented that implementation shortfall makes them insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal and by extension Africa’s sustainable development drive.
Although negotiators at COP29 agreed a new global finance goal, outcomes fell short of delivering the scale and operational detail needed by Africa, making COP30 a critical opportunity to turn headline commitments into concrete funding and delivery mechanisms.
According to the report, current global NDCs are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal hence the need for increased ambition in NDCs 3.0. The paper argues that the next generation of pledges (NDCs 3.0) must both raise ambition and be structured to attract private and public investment through clear, bankable sector targets and implementation roadmaps.
“Africa’s climate pledges risk remaining paper promises unless NDCs and LT-LEDS are reworked into bankable, investment-ready pipelines. This paper aims to lighthouse the path to sustainable development,” said SPP President, Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke.
The scoping paper identified common barriers such as misalignment between NDCs and national development plans, weak legal and governance frameworks, a lack of investment-grade sectoral targets, and limited technical and financial capacity to design and deliver bankable projects.
To address these gaps, the paper propose a practical framework for effective NDCs modelling for meeting the ambitious targets centred on five core elements: strong governance structure, alignment with development plans & LT-LEDS, concise sectoral targets, stakeholder engagement and people-centred communication all of which will combine to unlock the investments needed for NDCs implementation.
With COP30 expected to focus on adaptation mechanisms, Africa’s priorities must shift from paper commitments to investment-ready and development-focused climate action that draw private capital and strengthen governance. The scoping paper positions NDCs 3.0 and LT-LEDS as tools not only for emissions reduction targets but for economic transformation – a message expected of African negotiators, finance institutions and national leaders to carry on into Belém.
The report can be downloaded via: https://sppnigeria.org/on-the-road-to-cop30-and-beyond-developing-an-effective-ndcs-lt-leds-to-guide-africas-sustainable-development/
By Ugochukwu Uzuegbu, Communication Specialist, SPP