In the places most affected by climate change, peace is not a luxury: it’s a prerequisite for survival.
This November, the world’s attention turns to Belém, Brazil, where COP30, the annual UN climate summit, convenes amid rising temperatures, widening inequalities, geopolitical tensions and growing calls for justice. Yet one issue risks being sidelined again: climate-related peace and security.
For millions across Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific, climate change is not just about rising seas or melting glaciers. It is about survival. It is about whether families can stay on their land or are forced to flee. It is about whether scarce water sparks cooperation or conflict. And it is about whether fragile states, already burdened by poverty and instability, can withstand shocks they did little to cause.
Nigeria shows this reality vividly: food insecurity, migration, and farmer-herder clashes are increasingly shaped by climate pressures and exploited by armed groups. These are not distant warnings. They are unfolding now. And yet, despite this urgency, climate security remains absent from formal COP negotiations.
Why the silence?
At COP29, references to conflict and fragile states’ specific vulnerabilities were quietly removed from finance discussions. This was no accident. They reflect a persistent reluctance to acknowledge the deep links between climate and conflict, and to act on them, as peace and security is said to be outside COP’s mandate and agenda while others say peace and security is too politically sensitive, risking derailing negotiations.
Many negotiators, especially from countries that do not face climate-related insecurity directly see climate security as abstract, distant, therefore far from being their priority. Even within the Global South, some governments from conflict-free countries fear that linking climate and conflict could redefine vulnerability and shift scarce climate finance away from them. The competition for narrative and finance between conflict-affected and conflict-free is today a great source of tension, especially at a time when global assistance is shrinking.
Brazil’s role as COP30 host adds another layer of complexity. Historically, Brazil has resisted linking climate change to peace and security, viewing such efforts as Western-driven and sovereignty-threatening.
The signs of regression from the Presidency are troubling at COP30. Brazil has not continued the Peace Days that helped institutionalise climate-security discussions at previous COPs. It has expressed opposition to adding new agenda items that could complicate negotiations, a description that could embed peace and security. Despite one high-level climate security event potentially planned, Brazil’s engagement remains inadequate. Expensive costs and visa delays further weaken local communities’ representative participation in COP30. These developments risk turning COP30 into a summit that excludes the very people it should protect.
Africa’s leadership, ignored
Yet climate security is not a niche concern, it is central to global stability. If left unaddressed, climate-driven fragility will continue to destabilise entire regions and derail development efforts. The stakes are too high for inaction and African decision-makers know as they are at the forefront of climate-security advocacy.
From national climate security in the Central Sahel to the elaboration of the soon-to-be released African Union’s Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security, African initiatives show how climate action and peacebuilding can reinforce each other. These efforts emphasise how African states are not just vulnerable but are innovators, designing integrated solutions that the world should follow.
But their voices remain marginalised. Delegations from fragile states often lack the resources to shape negotiations. International actors dominate the agenda, offering top-down solutions that overlook local realities. This exclusion is not only unjust, but also counterproductive. Climate security cannot be addressed without the leadership of those who live its consequences daily. Africa and the Global South must be recognised not just as stakeholders, but as strategic partners. Their experience, innovation, and resilience must shape global climate policy.
What COP30 must deliver
COP30 is not a lost cause. There is still time to act and concrete steps that can be taken. First, climate security must be formally recognised in COP outcomes. This means acknowledging conflict-related vulnerabilities and ensuring they are reflected in climate finance frameworks. Second, conflict-affected regions must receive fair and accessible climate finance. This includes support for locally led, conflict-sensitive resilience efforts, and mechanisms that prioritize adaptation in fragile contexts. Third, the UNFCCC must establish institutional frameworks to coordinate climate-security efforts.
This could include a dedicated working group, technical support for fragile states, and integration of climate-security indicators into national plans. Fourth, host countries must be held accountable for inclusive, transparent, and rights-based climate governance. This means removing barriers to participation, protecting civil society space, and ensuring that COP is not used for greenwashing or peacewashing.
Finally, the climate-security agenda must be grounded in the lived experiences of those most affected. This means elevating local knowledge, supporting community-driven solutions, and ensuring that climate action promotes resilience, equity, and peace, not exclusion or militarisation.
This moment demands that we amplify those most affected by climate insecurity, and push global leaders to act. Climate peace is not a side issue. It is the foundation of sustainable development, justice, and global stability.
“If COP30 cannot protect the most vulnerable, what future is it negotiating?”
By Gabriel Lagrange, Climate Security Lead, Surge Africa