In its 1.5°C national pathway explorer, Climate Analytics showcases different pathways countries can take to limit peak global warming to 1.5°C – and the economy-wide and sectoral emissions reductions required to get there.
Canada, Chile, Egypt, the European Union, the UK, Nigeria, Poland and Viet Nam have been updated with new policy analysis, net pathways including land sector emissions, and power sector capacity investments.
The profiles show when fossil fuels like coal and gas need to be phased out for countries to be 1.5°C compatible – and the corresponding renewable energy capacity required to replace this.
To help policymakers prepare their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), each profile shows what 1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 NDCs would be alongside current targets and policy projections. It also breaks down the transition for key sectors such as power, industry, transport and buildings.
Climate Analytics has collaborated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to develop new global pathways to guide policymakers and advocacy groups on the action necessary in order to deliver the Paris Agreement goals and keep 1.5°C alive.
Nigeria’s conditional NDC target aligned with 1.5°C pathways
In Nigeria for example, its conditional target from its 2021 NDC is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways (when excluding LULUCF). Given how few historical emissions Nigeria has emitted, 1.5°C compatible pathways still allow for a small increase in emissions – to 26% above 2010 levels, or to 375 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. Further international support would be necessary for Nigeria to achieve its conditional target.
Investing in fossil gas increases risk of stranded assets
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan targets a 10 GW increase in fossil gas capacity by 2030 before decreasing to meet Nigeria’s 2060 net zero emissions target. Adding additional fossil fuel capacity would require deeper decarbonisation elsewhere, either in Nigeria or internationally, potentially causing delays and increasing the costs of transition. In analysed 1.5°C pathways, fossil gas is almost entirely phased out of the power sector by 2045, with electricity needs met by renewables instead.
Trade barriers introduce uncertainty, threaten progress on wind and solar power
Analysed pathways show Nigeria reaching at least 23 and up to 70 GW of total renewables capacity in 2030, exceeding its set target of 17 GW of total renewables capacity with investments requirements of up to USD 11bn per year between 2026-2030.
This rollout may be slowed down by the recently announced “Nigeria First Policy”, which aims to boost local manufacturing. However, this is likely to result in trade barriers on renewable energy technologies, potentially increasing costs and reducing imports.