The Australia Institute’s Climate & Energy Programme has released a special update of the country’s National Energy Emissions Audit (The Audit), authored by renowned energy expert, Dr Hugh Saddler.
The special update, titled: “What AEMO’S Integrated System Plan Report implies about the National Energy Guarantee”, shows there are multiple scenarios in which much larger emission reductions and levels of renewable energy generation can be achieved in the National Electricity Market (NEM) than envisaged in the current National Energy Guarantee (NEG), and at a lower cost.
Some of the key finding of the report are listed to include:
- AEMO believes renewables of about 50% by 2030 is possible with secure reliable power, under some approaches the renewable share could reach nearly 70% without compromising security and reliability, provided that new transmission lines and various other grid upgrades are completed in a timely manner.
- The proposed NEG 26% emissions reduction target is virtually meaningless, as it will be exceeded well before 2025 in all of AEMO’s scenarios. By 2030 emissions reduction could reach nearly 40%, or even more under some scenarios
- Under the “Slow” scenario, where the fall in grid consumption outweighs the slower growth of new renewable capacity, the reduction in emissions relative to 2005 reaches 49%
- While under the “Fast” scenario, where the acceleration of renewable generation construction outweighs the acceleration in electricity consumption, the reduction in emissions by 2030 reaches nearly 53%’Under the “Neutral” scenario, emissions almost reach the target level in less than two years from now, and decisively exceed it in 2022-23. By 2030 the reduction reaches 39%.
The National Energy Emissions Audit is published quarterly.