On May 28, a devastating flash flood, the first recorded in 2025, ravaged Mokwa, Niger State. Unlike typical floods caused by dam releases or river overflows, this disaster was triggered by torrential rainfall that overwhelmed the area and broke through an old embankment long relied on for protection.
Around 7 a.m., sections of the town, including homes, were submerged before most residents could react. Within hours, goods were swept away, people displaced and over 200 lives tragically ended.
The intense overnight rainfall became deadly due to failed infrastructure, poor urban planning, governance and the lack of a functioning Early Warning {and Action} System (EWS). The flood exposed what had been regrettably ignored for years: the increasing gap of our poor public services and environmental governance to catch up with the realities of climate change in Nigeria. The cost of this gap is about to multiply if we don’t change the status quo.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) have continued to issue flood alerts, the latest of which warned of high to very high risks in 198 Local Government Areas across 32 states and the Federal Capital Territory between August 7 and 21. The stakes are higher now, with more severe rainfall and rising rivers possible.
As someone who, with my team, visited Mokwa after the disaster, the question is no longer if floods will occur but what lessons from Mokwa can strengthen climate adaptation strategies for a country that is vulnerable to climate change.
Mokwa, a town on the banks of the River Niger, has always been at risk. Residents had long built on dry tributaries that once served as water pathways during rainy seasons. Some believed the water had been permanently diverted. Others, knowing the risks, stayed anyway. There were no building permits due to the endemic culture of either lack of rural and urban planning laws, compliance with the same where it exists or enforcement of such rules were violated. This is often the case in most parts of Nigeria. What existed, in the affected community in Mokwa, was a frail peace between flash flood and obstructive human settlement.
This points to a wider problem. Nigeria’s broader climate response is weak and ineffectual. Forecasts are issued and largely ignored. Responsibilities are split across ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) but most don’t act. Even with near accurate seasonal predictions from the NiMet and NIHSA, there is no real cohesive and robust response system. Forecasts fail to trigger timely action from relevant federal, states and local government actors, leaving communities vulnerable.
One lesson is clear: forecasts alone are insufficient without a comprehensive EWS. An effective system goes beyond predictions by pairing them with evacuation drills, simulations, real-time monitoring, shelter preparation and infrastructure checks. It requires predictive models that generate different scenarios and trained personnel whose eyes are on the data, ready to act at the first early sign of danger. You set up bar-coded or colour-coded levels of alertness so everyone, from agencies to residents, knows exactly what each stage demands.
Instead, what exists is a patchwork of forecasts, press statements and after-the-fact responses. A functional system would connect local governments with forecasting bodies, emergency responders, community leaders and infrastructure agencies. There would be clear thresholds, tied to water levels or rainfall, that automatically trigger alerts and mobilisation. The absence of such a system in Mokwa meant no alerts, no community mobilisation and no monitoring of a known weak point until it failed.
Urban planning failures also worsens flood disasters in Nigeria. Many of the worst-hit homes, during the Mokwa flood, stood directly on a water path. Communities build along floodplains, often without regulation. In smaller towns and villages, planning laws are ignored or never enforced. Across cities like Lagos and Abuja, construction happens on natural water paths with illicitly obtained government approval and/or swift deterrence. Rural areas face the same risk, as informal settlements rise unchecked in high-risk zones. In Mokwa, even if residents had no permits, the silence of local authorities amounts to complicity.
Attempts at regulation often meet resistance. People protest demolitions or relocations because of a deep trust deficit. Past government actions have fuelled this, clearing poor communities “for public good” only to sell the land to private developers. So, when officials issue warnings or propose evacuation, communities suspect foul play. This mistrust weakens climate adaptation efforts.
Even where government intentions are genuine, implementation fails without community buy-in. Climate resilience needs a whole-of-society approach. Governments must ensure that any relocation is transparent, fairly compensated and demonstrably for public safety.
Infrastructure maintenance is another major gap that must be addressed. Many of Nigeria’s dams and rivers are heavily silted, reducing their carrying risk while increasing the risk of uncontrolled releases and banks breaking. There has been no consistent auditing or desilting programme to restore/increase their capacities. Water retention areas have been encroached upon, narrowing the space for excess water to flow.
These weaknesses compound the effect of heavy rainfall, turning manageable floods into disasters. The Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation must begin dam maintenance programmes immediately as is their mandate. Regular inspection and desilting must become standard practice, not emergency measures. Without this, dams and banks will continue to fail during heavy rainfall.
But infrastructure alone cannot secure communities if flood insurance is virtually nonexistent in Nigeria’s disaster response framework. After Mokwa, businesses, homes and millions of naira in cash and goods were lost without coverage. Despite the launch of the National Flood Insurance Policy (NFIP) in July, there is no public awareness on how it will operate and its accessibility.
Without operationalisation of the NFIP, recovery will remain slow and overly dependent on relief interventions that are often inadequate. This makes flood insurance not just an economic tool but a key component of resilience. The Federal Ministry of Environment must ensure the timeline is fast, implementation and monitoring mechanisms are robust.
At the same time, state emergency agencies are mostly missing from the frontline. Most Nigerians only know of the National Emergency Management Agency of Nigeria (NEMA) yet each state is meant to have its own emergency management agency. These should be the first responders; trained, equipped and visible in at-risk communities. In practice, many exist only on paper, leaving a gap that federal agencies cannot fill quickly enough.
In Mokwa, the local response was stretched thin, despite the support from state, national, international agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from across the country, the interventions were not adequate enough to help the victims pick up their lives.
Equally troubling is the lack of accountability for ecological funds in Nigeria. These funds are meant to finance resilience and recovery projects, but their use is rarely transparent. Without audits and conditions tying disbursements to measurable work, such as drainage clearing, embankment reinforcement or emergency shelter upgrades, the objectives of the funds will remain a mirage. The FG needs to create an open system of public reporting and real-time tracking of funds and allow independent oversight by civil society and legislative bodies.
Climate adaptation also cannot remain siloed within environmental ministries. The country has refused to treat climate adaptation as central to governance. The 2021 Climate Change Act and the National Adaptation Plan provide a legal framework, but most states have not domesticated them. Climate considerations, in Nigeria, scarcely influence decisions in housing, transport or agriculture.
In many places, climate change is treated as the concern of a small office rather than a core principle guiding all development. Even Lagos, the most climate-forward state, with a dedicated Lagos Resilience Office (LASRO) and a resilience strategy document, climate considerations is still not adequately integrated into all spheres of development. Most states in Nigeria don’t have a dedicated climate change office.
Nigeria must overhaul its climate response approach. Forecasts should guide strategic planning. State governments need to map vulnerable areas, run risk simulations and engage communities before disasters strike. Local and state authorities must take charge instead of waiting for Abuja. Mokwa exposed this neglect despite warnings and clear risks, the lack of a system to turn forecasts into action made disaster unavoidable.
The scale of this challenge carries a high cost but failing to act in time will cost even more. More rainfall is coming. Rivers are rising. Dams are filling. Flooding has caused devastation in parts of Lagos, Niger, Adamawa, Taraba, Yobe and Ebonyi. Without firm, well-coordinated action at national, state and local levels, the same avoidable losses seen in Mokwa will play out across dozens of states in the weeks and months ahead.
So, what Mokwa has taught us, if anyone listened, is that climate adaptation has never been merely about responding to disasters but also about preventing them. This should translate to building systems where forecasts lead to action, where real-time data informs response strategies, where trust building between government and affected communities leads to evacuation and better protection from climate extremes.
By Sulaimon Arigbagbu, Executive Secretary of HEDA Resource Centre, leading its Environment Justice and Sustainable Development unit. He works to influence Nigerian government policy, focusing on climate change and sustainable development