The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be vitally important for the climate, with results shaping the final two years of climate policy under the Trump administration – from energy reliability and affordability to disaster resilience and recovery, including funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Federal, state, and local primary elections – when voters determine who will represent each party on the November ballot – are currently underway and will continue over the next several months. Below, the Centre for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, provides a roundup of Climate Change in the American Mind primary-election-relevant insights and resources – including the fact that global warming remains an important voting priority for many Americans.
In many districts, one party is said to be so dominant that the general election is not very competitive. As a result, primary elections often determine who goes to Congress, and the same is true for state legislatures. This pattern has become even more common with the current wave of partisan redistricting. Further, state and local climate policies will likely become increasingly important given the Trump EPA’s recent efforts to reverse the prior “endangerment finding,” which enables federal regulation of carbon emissions as a pollutant.
Key Findings:
- Many registered voters say global warming is a very important issue in their voting decisions.
- Most registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, including a large majority of Democrats and many liberal/moderate Republicans.
- Most Democrats say they want to hear more from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming.
- Majorities of registered voters in nearly every state think Congress should do more to address global warming.
- Most Americans are worried about the cost of living, and many think global warming is affecting it.
Global Warming as a Voting Issue
George Mason University and partners at the Yale Programme on Climate Change Communication have tracked global warming as a voting priority in each presidential and midterm election since 2014. As of Fall 2025, 35% of registered voters overall say that global warming is a “very important” issue for their vote (+3 percentage points since 2014), including 65% of liberal Democrats (+12 percentage points), 56% of moderate/conservative Democrats (+9 percentage points), 15% of liberal/moderate Republicans (-3 percentage points), and 4% of conservative Republicans (-4 percentage points).
The demographic groups most likely to say that global warming will be a very important issue for their vote in the 2026 Congressional elections include Black (non-Hispanic/Latino) voters (53%), urban voters (49%), voters with an annual household income below $50,000 (41%), female voters (40%), and Hispanic/Latino voters (39%).
How Voters View Candidate Positions on Climate and Energy
As of Fall 2025, the researchers find that:
- Most registered voters (59%) would prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming, including nearly all liberal Democrats (95%), a large majority of moderate/conservative Democrats (82%), 42% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 21% of conservative Republicans.
- Many registered voters (41%) would like to hear more often from political candidates about efforts to reduce global warming, including 79% of liberal Democrats, 57% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 22% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 10% of conservative Republicans.
- A majority of liberal Democrats say that they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports increasing the use of renewable energy (58%), and 31% of moderate/conservative Democrats say the same. Majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (81%) and conservative Republicans (76%) say a congressional candidate’s position on renewable energy will not be a deciding factor in their vote.
- Similarly, a majority of liberal Democrats say that they will only vote for a congressional candidate who supports decreasing the use of fossil fuels (54%), and 35% of moderate/conservative Democrats say the same. Majorities of liberal/moderate Republicans (77%) and conservative Republicans (62%) say a congressional candidate’s position on fossil fuels will not be a deciding factor in their vote.
Support for Other Climate Policies
In February 2026, the EPA overturned the “endangerment finding” that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health – a finding that formed the basis for federal regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. However, the researchers find that most registered voters (74%) support regulating carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant, including 94% of liberal Democrats, 88% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 76% of liberal/moderate Republicans, and 45% of conservative Republicans.
Additionally, majorities of registered voters across all political groups oppose eliminating programs related to global warming: overall, 79% of registered voters oppose eliminating the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 77% oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop researching global warming, 77% oppose ordering all federal agencies to stop providing information about global warming to the public, and 65% oppose prohibiting the construction of new offshore wind farms.
State-Level Insights
The researchers U.S. Climate Opinion Maps and Factsheets provide data about a wide range of U.S. climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences for each state, county, and metro area, and most Congressional districts as of 2024.
Notably, the researchers find that majorities of adults in 47 states say Congress should do more to address global warming. Majorities in 48 states say that developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the next president and Congress.
Connecting Climate Change to Other Social Issues
Climate change connects to many other issues, such as the cost of living, the economy, health, disruption of government services, and national security. Understanding how Americans prioritise these other issues can provide valuable insights for climate communicators.
In an analysis of top public worries in the U.S., the researchers find that 87% of Americans are worried about government corruption (including 54% who are “very worried”) and 86% are worried about the cost of living (48% “very worried”).
In a follow-up study, the researchers also found that 65% of registered voters think global warming is affecting the cost of living, including 88% of liberal Democrats, 77% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 58% of moderate/conservative Republicans, and 42% of conservative Republicans.