Nigeria stands at a crossroads where the global urgency to decarbonise meets its national imperative for inclusive development. The Just Transition Guidelines and Action Plan (JT-GAP) provides a blueprint to manage the risks of decarbonisation while unlocking opportunities for jobs, innovation, and shared prosperity. The report recognises that energy transition cannot be achieved by technology shifts alone – it must be socially inclusive, economically viable, and environmentally restorative.
Key Findings Across Sectors
Oil and Gas: The oil and gas sector, historically the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, faces acute risks of stranded assets, job losses, and declining revenues as the world moves away from fossil fuels. Communities in the Niger Delta still endure displacement, pollution, and poor infrastructure despite decades of extraction. Without planned diversification, both workers and host communities remain highly vulnerable.
Power and Energy: Nigeria’s power system suffers from aging infrastructure, centralisation of green energy investment, and skills mismatches. Access inequalities persist, with rural and low-income households facing high energy costs and limited access to solar and renewable technologies.
Agriculture and AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use)
Farmers face displacement pressures from land competition between food, bioenergy, and conservation needs. Structural barriers persist for women, youth, and smallholders, particularly in access to land, credit, and training. Poorly managed “climate-smart agriculture” could worsen food insecurity if not accompanied by capacity building and monitoring.
Industry: Industrial areas impose disproportionate health and environmental burdens on low-income communities. Governance gaps – fragmented policies, corruption, and limited inclusivity – prevent fair compensation for land acquisition and restrict resource-rich communities from benefiting from industrial activities.
Transport: The transport sector is hampered by unregulated truck emissions, extortion on port routes, underutilised rail and waterways, and prohibitive costs of electric vehicles (EVs). Limited charging and CNG infrastructure worsen inequalities. However, investment in EV adoption, tax incentives, and better road/rail planning could unlock major opportunities.
Recommendations
- Oil and Gas Transition
- Implement phased retraining for oil workers into renewable energy and green manufacturing.
- Prioritise remediation in oil-bearing regions and channel a portion of oil revenues into local economic diversification.
- Energy and Power
- Expand decentralised renewable energy projects targeting rural areas.
- Invest in vocational training for solar technicians, grid engineers, and battery specialists.
- Develop local manufacturing hubs for renewable technologies to reduce reliance on imports.
- Agriculture and AFOLU
- Support farmers with digital tools, resilient seed varieties, and access to carbon markets.
- Ensure women and youth gain fair access to land tenure and agricultural credit.
- Strengthen monitoring of climate-smart agriculture to prevent food insecurity.
- Industry
- Enforce emission standards for cement, steel, and chemical industries.
- Establish community benefit-sharing frameworks in industrial zones.
- Incentivise cleaner production through tax breaks and concessional finance.
- Transport
- Roll out incentives (low-interest loans, subsidies) to make EVs affordable.
- Expand EV charging and CNG stations nationwide with private sector partnerships.
- Revive and diversify rail and waterway infrastructure to reduce overreliance on road transport.
Contribution to Economic Growth: The JT-GAP can accelerate Nigeria’s economic growth by:
- Job Creation: Reskilling programmes and green sector expansion will provide opportunities for youth and MSMEs, addressing high unemployment.
- Diversification: Reducing dependence on oil revenues through renewable energy, green agriculture, and sustainable industries will stabilise the economy.
- Attracting Investment: Clear just transition policies make Nigeria more attractive for climate finance, green bonds, and impact investment.
- Improving Health and Productivity: Cutting emissions from oil, industry, and transport reduces disease burden, improving workforce productivity.
- Inclusive Development: Women, youth, and vulnerable groups gain access to opportunities, helping reduce inequality and unrest.
In conclusion, the Just Transition Guidelines and Action Plan offers Nigeria a roadmap to balance climate ambition with social justice and economic transformation. Implementing its recommendations will not only safeguard workers and communities but also unlock new engines of growth – green energy, sustainable agriculture, clean transport, and resilient industries. By embracing this plan, Nigeria positions itself not just to survive the global energy transition but to thrive within it.
By Olumide Idowu, Founder & Executive Director, ICCDI Africa