A major global energy disruption linked to tensions in the Middle East is exposing a less visible but deeply consequential crisis for Africa: the environmental fallout of rising fuel costs.

As oil and gas prices surge globally – driven in part by instability around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy trade – many African countries are experiencing ripple effects that extend far beyond economics.

While much of the global focus has centered on inflation and slowing growth, experts warn that the environmental consequences – particularly in low-income, energy-constrained economies – are being overlooked.

A Shift Back to Biomass

According to Kampala-based climate and energy consultant, Peter Mwesiga, the environmental impacts of energy shocks are often indirect but deeply structural.

“When modern fuels become unaffordable, households revert to charcoal and firewood,” Mwesiga explains.

“That accelerates deforestation, land degradation, and black carbon emissions.”

He draws parallels with the COVID-19 pandemic, when economic strain pushed many households away from cleaner fuels like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), reversing gains in clean energy adoption.

The consequences extend beyond the environment.

Increased reliance on biomass fuels worsens indoor air pollution, posing significant public health risks while contributing to climate change.

Policy Trade-offs and Delayed Transitions

Energy crises also reshape government priorities.

Faced with fiscal pressure, many African governments prioritize short-term fuel stabilization over long-term climate investments.

“This delays renewable energy expansion and locks countries into more carbon-intensive systems,” Mwesiga says.

In contrast, higher fuel prices in parts of Europe have accelerated the transition to cleaner technologies, including electric vehicles – highlighting a widening gap in how different regions respond to the same shock.

Africa’s Uneven Environmental Outcome

Across Africa, the environmental impact is mixed but largely negative at the household level.

Higher fuel prices may temporarily reduce vehicle use and emissions. However, in cities with limited public transport, this often results in reduced mobility rather than sustained environmental gains.

More critically, rising LPG prices are reversing progress in clean cooking.

Evidence from countries such as Ghana and Kenya shows that LPG demand is highly sensitive to price increases, pushing households back toward biomass fuels.

The result: increased pressure on forests, higher emissions at the household level, and growing reliance on inefficient energy systems.

Malawi’s Reality

In Malawi, the effects are already visible.

Fewer than 20 percent of the population has access to electricity, and even those connected face persistent outages.

In March 2026, the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) raised LPG prices by nearly 20 percent, citing rising global costs and supply chain pressures.

For many households, LPG is now unaffordable.

The fallback has been predictable: increased reliance on charcoal and firewood. This shift is accelerating deforestation and weakening the country’s resilience to climate shocks such as droughts and floods.

A Structural Environmental Risk

Beyond Africa, the crisis itself is contributing to global emissions through disrupted energy systems and, in some cases, damage to oil infrastructure.

While such emissions may be temporary, the longer-term risk lies in how countries respond.

A prolonged return to fossil fuels could delay global climate action and entrench carbon-intensive systems.

A Narrow Window of Opportunity

Despite the risks, the crisis presents an opportunity.

Mwesiga argues that African countries could use this moment to accelerate investments in renewable energy, decentralised systems like solar mini-grids, and electrified cooking solutions.

However, he cautions that such outcomes are not automatic.

“Without deliberate policy, financing, and planning, governments may default to short-term fossil fuel solutions,” he says.

“The real opportunity is to use this crisis to drive structural transformation.”

By Happy Njalam’mano, AfricaBrief