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Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Long-term climate vision: Where Nigeria will be in 2050, by experts

The 2050 Long-Term Vision for Nigeria (LTV-2050) is expected to lay a solid foundation for the country to be a low carbon- economy and climate-resilient society with knowledge-driven economy that is globally competitive and compliant with Africa’s Agenda 2063.

2050 Long-Term Vision for Nigeria
L-R: Dr Eugene Itua (CEO, Natural Eco Capital), Rep. Abubakar Gumi (representative of the Chairman, House Committee on Climate Change) and Prof. Olukayode Oladipo (Natural Eco Capital), at the launch of Nigeria’s Long-Term Low Emission Vision to 2050 and Investment/Financial Flow Assessment Reports

This disclosure was made by Prof. Olukayode Oladipo of the University of Lagos and Dr Eugene Itua of Natural Eco Capital Limited in a presentation in Abuja on Thursday, August 26, 2021, during the High-Level Media Event to launch the LTV-2050.

The LTV-2050, added the duo, is designed to promote sustainable development and guarantee a climate-proofed economic development. They added that it is in tandem with medium-term (2021-2025) and long-term (Agenda 2050) national development plans.

On where Nigeria wants to be in 2050, they said: “By 2050, Nigeria is a country of low-carbon, climate-resilient, high-growth circular economy that reduces its current level of emissions by 50% and moves towards having net-zero emissions in the second half of the century across all sectors of its development in a gender-responsive manner.”

Shedding some light on visions by the respective sectors, the Agriculture, Forest and other Land Use (AFOLU), they noted, sees Nigeria as a country in which sustainable land use and Climate Smart Agriculture (including livestock and fisheries) practices are adopted by all large-scale farmers and more than 75% of smallholder farmers, while forestry management practices are in line with the global mechanism of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+).

On Energy, the 2050 vision, they noted, is to decarbonise the energy sector by halving emissions in the sector relative to current levels and increasing the contribution of renewables to the country’s energy mix by 50% with a view of achieving net zero carbon emission by the end of the century.

In the Oil & Gas sector, however, the vision is to reduce carbon emissions from oil and gas value chain by 50% of its current level by 2050 and transit to net zero emission by the end of the century.

Furthermore, on Industry, they stressed that Nigeria will have a low carbon industrial sector with enhanced energy efficiency that seizes the opportunities that comes with global transition towards climate resilience and circular economy.

Concerning the Urban Development vision, Oladipo and Itua noted that Nigerian cities are expected to reduce their carbon footprint by 50% by 2050 and move towards becoming carbon-neutral and climate-resilient at the end of the century.

For the Blue Economy (fresh water and coastal wetlands) vision, Nigeria should minimise the impact of climate change on the sector, improve energy efficiency and increase sector’s resilience for sustainable water development, through strategic mitigation and adaptation options.

The vision for the Transportation sector states that a national transportation system by 2050 with all having access to a range of affordable transportation choices in which not more than 50% of all journeys are by cars, at least 40% of all journeys are by public transport (including trains and BRT) and at least 10% of all journeys are by active travel (e. g. cycling, walking) to generate little to no GHG, keep the air clean, reduce vehicle distance traveled while increasing access and grow the economy.

On the Waste sector, Nigeria should reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector by at least 50% by 2050, while transiting to a carbon-neutral waste management at the end of the century through expansive adoption of up-to-date technologies for solid, liquid, and gaseous waste (MSW)processing and other emerging technologies.

On Gender Mainstreaming, it is expected that the vision should successfully mainstream the gender equality and social inclusion initiatives (GESI) and capture inclusivity for women, aged people, youth and persons living with disabilities by actions to embed affirmative national policies.

Richard Baron, Executive Director of 2050 Pathways Platform, which is supporting the initiative, described the 2050 Pathways Platform as a multi-stakeholder initiative created to support the development of countries’ long-term low emissions development strategies, as part of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

His words: “This community of practice includes 34 countries on all continents – including Nigeria – development banks, international organisations, think tank and technical partners that share the view that a long-term plan for low-carbon development is a pre-condition for a successful transition in the fight against climate change.

“With their help and our experience with a range of countries, we are well positioned to advise and support best practice for long-term low-emission and climate resilient development strategies and show the way for a responsible and prosperous transition mentioned just now.

“You may have heard the recent announcements of the EU, China, the United States, Japan, South Africa or, more recently, Indonesia all aiming to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of this century.  It is essential that these commitments be backed by plans and pathways that indicate how to get there. Nigeria has taken an important step forward in this area.

“The 2050 Pathways Platform has been supporting the Environment Ministry to work on the first phase for such a plan – the long-term vision to 2050 presented to you for validation today is the result of that first phase of work. I must thank Natural Eco Capital for their hard work on the document and all stakeholders that contributed to it.

“This Vision is a solid foundation for the elaboration of a robust long-term strategy – it lays out the critical dimensions that policy-makers, private sector and society at large will need clarity on, to get on track for a low-carbon, climate-resilient transition.  This Vision, pending validation, is fit for submission to the UN Climate Convention, as a first step towards a full-blown strategy.”

Dr Mohammad Abubakar, Minister of Environment, said that through the NDC Partnership Climate Action Enhancement Package, the 2050 Pathways Platform supported the ministry to develop its first Nigeria Long-Term Vision 2050.

“The support is as an initial and first useful step towards designing Long Term–Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS).

“The support provides Nigeria the forum to discuss the opportunities and challenges that may arise in terms of a cleaner, more dynamic, and more sustainable growth model.

“The process also provides the options for the country to implement a less carbon-intensive model of economic development in the face of decreasing global reliance on fossil fuel energy for development practices.

“It is hoped that this vision will promote sustainable development and guarantee a climate proofed economy through multi-stakeholders’ engagement across multiple sectors,’’ he said.

Chief Sharon Ikeazor, Minister of State for Environment, said that Nigeria was committed to fulfilling its pledge to combat climate change along with the international community through the Paris Climate Agreement.

Ikeazor said that undertaking such determination would require significant investment from both domestic and international sources with end-to-end contributions from private and public sectors.

“To appreciate the size of the investment that will be required for climate change mitigation and adaptation measure, Nigeria, through support from the UNDP, hired experts which included Climate Change Scientists, Data and Statistical Analysts, Economists and Financial Experts.

“The team was tasked with the assessment and analysis of the expected Investment and Financial Flows (I&FF) to achieve the emission reduction targets,” she said.

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